Lorenzo Musetti and Flavio Cobolli will play each other in the 3^rd round of the U.S. Open for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 11:00 am on Louis Armstrong Stadium. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Lorenzo Musetti who should win in 5 sets.

As per the initial odds, Lorenzo Musetti is the pick to win this match.
Lorenzo Musetti -> 1.52
Flavio Cobolli -> 2.53

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Prediction and head to head Lorenzo Musetti vs. Flavio Cobolli

There is no head to head record between Lorenzo Musetti and Flavio Cobolli since this will be the first time that they will fight against each other in the main tour.

Lorenzo Musetti

Ranked no. 10, Lorenzo got to the 3^rd round after beating Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 6-7(3) 6-3 6-4 6-4 and David Goffin 6-4 6-0 6-2.

In the 2^nd round, The Italian had a good straight sets win against Goffin (6-4 6-0 6-2). During the match, Musetti scored 94 points vs Goffin’s 62. The Italian was pretty aggressive to blast 36 winners.

Talking about the service games, Musetti made 4 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Lorenzo Musetti lost the serve twice and he saved 9 break points. Furthermore, Musetti put 62% of his first serves in, winning 68% (36/53) of the points behind his 1st serve and 53% (17/32) on the 2nd serve. Musetti broke Goffin 8 times after converting 67% of his break points (8/12).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Lorenzo has conceded 1 set in this competition to conquer 57% of the points he played.

Musetti has a winning match record in the last 8 years having won 59% of his matches (248-173). 9-7 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this competition, Musetti has an aggregate59-53 record in the last 8 years on hard.

The Italian’s best result of the current year was reaching the final in Carlo.

The Italian has an aggregate 28-12 win-loss record in 2025, 9-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Flavio Cobolli

Ranked no. 26, the Italian got to the 3^rd round after beating Francesco Passaro 7-5 4-6 6-4 3-6 6-3 and Jenson Brooksby 5-7 6-3 6-4 2-6 7-6(3).

In the 2^nd round, Cobolli had a tough win against Brooksby to overcome his opponent only in 5 sets (5-7 6-3 6-4 2-6 7-6³).During the match Cobolli scored less points (1) than Brooksby. In fact, the world no. 10 won 178 points vs Brooksby’s. That means that Cobolli was more focused during the important points. The Italian was extremely aggressive to blast 69 winners.

About the serving games, Cobolli blasted 4 aces and he committed only 8 double faults. Flavio Cobolli lost the serve 6 times and he saved 16 break points. Furthermore, Cobolli put 53% of his first serves in, winning 64% (69/108) of the points behind his 1st serve and 56% (53/95) on the 2nd serve. Flavio broke Brooksby 5 times after converting 36% of his break points (5/14).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Cobolli has conceded 4 set in the tournament to win 50% of the points he played.

His best result of the year was winning the title in Bucharest where he beat Sebastian Baez in the final 6-4 6-4 and in Hamburg where he beat Andrey Rublev in the final 6-2 6-4.

Cobolli has a composed 29-21 win-loss record in 2025, 8-10 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Previously, his best result was reaching the 3^rd round in 2024. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Musetti	Cobolli
Match played	2	2
Tot Set	7	10
Tot Games	66	102
Pts	217-164	343-338
Total Points	381	681
Winners	95	113
%Winners	44%	33%

Both Musetti and Cobolli played 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Lorenzo Musetti surrendered 1 set, while Flavio Cobolli dropped 4 sets. Musetti has played 3 set(s) less than Cobolli (7 vs 10). Therefore, Musetti played 36 games less than Cobolli. Lorenzo scored 95 winners (44% of the total points). On the other side, The Italian bagged 113 winners (33%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Musetti	Cobolli
Aces	17	11
Avg per match	8.5	5.5
1st in	121/185	170/364
%1st in	65%	47%
1st pts	95/121	113/170
%1st pts	79%	66%
2nd pts	45/64	107/194
%2nd pts	70%	55%

Musetti struck 17 aces (8.5 per match). Cobolli made 11 aces (5.5 per match). Musetti won 79% points behind his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 70% of the points. On the other side, Cobolli won 66% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 55% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Musetti	Cobolli
Won	11	12
Converted	11/20	12/32
% Converted	55%	38%
Conceded	11	37
Saved	9	25
% Saved	82%	68%
Times Broken	2	12

Musetti broke his opponents 11 times with a 55% conversion rate. Musetti lost his serve twice and he saved 82% of the break points that he conceded. Cobolli broke his opponents 12 times with a 38% conversion rate. Flavio conceded his serve 12 times and he saved 68% of the break points that he conceded.

Musetti
	R1 Mpetshi	R2 Goffin	Total
Score	6-73 6-3 6-4 6-4	6-4 6-0 6-2
Tot Set	4	3	7
Tot Games	42	24	66
pts	123-102	94-62	217-164
Total points	225	156	381
Winners	59	36	95
%Winners	48%	38%	44%
SERVE
Aces	13	4	17
Double Faults	1	2	3
1st in	68/100	53/85	121/185
% 1st in	68%	62%	65%
1st pts	59/68	36/53	95/121
% 1st pts	87%	68%	79%
2nd pts	28/32	17/32	45/64
% 2nd pts	88%	53%	70%
Breaks
Won	3	8	11
Converted	3/8	8/12	11/20
Converted %	38%	67%	55%
Conceded	0	11	11
Saved	0/0	9/11	9
Saved %	–	82%	41%
Times Broken	0	2	2

Cobolli
	R1 Passaro	R2 Brooksby	Total
Score	7-5 4-6 6-4 3-6 6-3	5-7 6-3 6-4 2-6 7-63
Tot Set	5	5	10
Tot Games	50	52	102
pts	165-159	178-179	343-338
Total points	324	357	681
Winners	44	69	113
%Winners	27%	39%	33%
SERVE
Aces	7	4	11
Double Faults	15	8	23
1st in	62/161	108/203	170/364
% 1st in	39%	53%	47%
1st pts	44/62	69/108	113/170
% 1st pts	71%	64%	66%
2nd pts	54/99	53/95	107/194
% 2nd pts	55%	56%	55%
Breaks
Won	7	5	12
Converted	7/18	5/14	12/32
Converted %	39%	36%	38%
Conceded	15	22	37
Saved	9/15	16/22	25
Saved %	60%	73%	67%
Times Broken	6	6	12

Tennis Scores – U.S. Open

• Taylor FritzFritz – Jerome KymKym (7-6(3) 6-7(9) 6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Cameron NorrieNorrie (6-4 6-7⁴ 6-2 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Arthur RinderknechRinderknech – Benjamin BonziBonzi (4-6 6-3 6-3 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Jiri LeheckaLehecka – Raphael CollignonCollignon (6-4 6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Luciano DarderiDarderi (6-2 6-4 6-0) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Tomas MachacMachac – Ugo BlanchetBlanchet (7-5 6-3 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Jan-Lennard StruffStruff – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (6-4 6-3 7-6⁷) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Jannik SinnerSinner – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Alexander BublikBublik – Tommy PaulPaul (1-5) – H2H and prediction
• Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Flavio CobolliCobolli (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar – Zizou BergsBergs (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Alexander ZverevZverev – Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime (6-2) – H2H and prediction
• Kamil MajchrzakMajchrzak – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Daniel AltmaierAltmaier – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Jan-Lennard StruffStruff (7-0) – H2H and prediction
• Arthur RinderknechRinderknech – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (0-3) – H2H and prediction