Tommy Paul and Alexander Bublik will clash against each other in the 3^rd round of the U.S. Open for the 7^th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 9:00 pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Tommy Paul who should win in 5 sets.

As per the initial odds, Tommy Paul is the pick to win this match.
Tommy Paul -> 1.64
Alexander Bublik -> 2.26

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Prediction and head to head Tommy Paul vs. Alexander Bublik

This will be the 7^th time that Tommy Paul and Alexander Bublik fight against each other. The head to head is 5-1 for Paul (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.

The last time that they played, Paul won 5-7 7-5 6-4 in the 2^nd round in Miami back in March 2025.

Highlights Tommy Paul vs Alexander Bublik – Miami 21-March-2025

Tommy Paul

Ranked no. 14, the American got to the 3^rd round after defeating Elmer Moller 6-3 6-3 6-1 and Nuno Borges 7-6(6) 6-3 5-7 5-7 7-5.

In the 2^nd round, Paul had a tough win against Borges to overcome his opponent only in 5 sets (7-6⁶ 6-3 5-7 5-7 7-5). During the match, Paul scored 187 points vs Borges’s 174. The American was very aggressive to blast 64 winners.

Regarding the service games, Paul managed to score 11 aces and he committed only 6 double faults. Tommy Paul lost the serve 7 times and he saved 9 break points. Furthermore, Paul put 52% of his first serves in, winning 70% (64/92) of the points behind his 1st serve and 57% (48/84) on the 2nd serve. Tommy broke Borges 8 times after converting 44% of his break points (8/18).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Tommy has surrendered 2 set in this event to win 54% of the points he played.

Paul has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 64% of his matches (374-213). 13-5 on hard in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Paul has a compiled 190-108 match record in the last years on hard.

The American’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in Adelaide, Dallas, Houston and Rome.

Tommy has an aggregate 29-12 win-loss record in 2025, 13-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Alexander Bublik

Ranked no. 24, Alexander got to the 3^rd round after defeating Marin Cilic 6-4 6-1 6-4 and Tristan Schoolkate 6-3 6-3 6-3.

In the 2^nd round, Alexander had a good straight sets win against Schoolkate (6-3 6-3 6-3). During the match Bublik scored 94 points vs Schoolkate’s 74. The Kazakhstani was extremely aggressive to blast 48 winners.

About the serving games, Bublik blasted 16 aces and he committed only 6 double faults. Alexander Bublik conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 4 break points. Furthermore, Bublik put 64% of his first serves in, winning 84% (48/57) of the points behind his 1st serve and 44% (14/32) on the 2nd serve. Bublik broke Schoolkate 4 times after converting 67% of his break points (4/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Bublik hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 57% of the points he played.

His best result of the current season was conquering the title the Turin Challenger where he defeated Bu Yunchaokete in the final 6-3 6-3 and in Halle where he overcame Daniil Medvedev in the final 6-3 7-6(4) and in Gstaad where he beat Juan Manuel Cerundolo in the final 6-4 4-6 6-3 and in Kitzbuhel where he overcame Arthur Cazaux in the final 6-4 6-3.

The Kazakhstani has an aggregate 37-17 win-loss record in 2025, 7-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Previously, his best result was reaching the 3^rd round in 2019. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Paul	Bublik
Match played	2	2
Tot Set	8	6
Tot Games	83	54
Pts	280-237	184-141
Total Points	517	325
Winners	95	90
%Winners	34%	49%

Both Paul and Bublik played 2 matches. At the moment, Tommy Paul conceded 2 sets while Alexander Bublik hasn’t dropped a set so far. Paul has played 2 sets more than Bublik (8 vs 6). Therefore, Paul played 29 games more than Bublik. Paul scored 95 winners (34% of the total points). On the other side, The Kazakhstani blasted 90 winners (49%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Paul	Bublik
Aces	15	32
Avg per match	7.5	16
1st in	129/249	101/168
%1st in	52%	60%
1st pts	95/129	90/101
%1st pts	74%	89%
2nd pts	71/120	30/67
%2nd pts	59%	45%

Paul fired 15 aces (7.5 per match). Bublik bagged 32 aces (16 per match). Paul won 74% points behind his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 59% of the points. On the other side, Bublik won 89% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 45% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Paul	Bublik
Won	13	8
Converted	13/28	8/15
% Converted	46%	53%
Conceded	16	6
Saved	9	6
% Saved	56%	100%
Times Broken	7	0

Paul broke his opponents 13 times with a 46% conversion rate. Paul conceded his serve 7 times and he saved 56% of the break points that he conceded. Alexander broke his opponents 8 times with a 53% conversion rate. The Kazakhstani was rock solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 6 break points.

Paul
	R1 Moller	R2 Borges	Total
Score	6-3 6-3 6-1	7-66 6-3 5-7 5-7 7-5
Tot Set	3	5	8
Tot Games	25	58	83
pts	93-63	187-174	280-237
Total points	156	361	517
Winners	31	64	95
%Winners	33%	34%	34%
SERVE
Aces	4	11	15
Double Faults	3	6	9
1st in	37/73	92/176	129/249
% 1st in	51%	52%	52%
1st pts	31/37	64/92	95/129
% 1st pts	84%	70%	74%
2nd pts	23/36	48/84	71/120
% 2nd pts	64%	57%	59%
Breaks
Won	5	8	13
Converted	5/10	8/18	13/28
Converted %	50%	44%	46%
Conceded	0	16	16
Saved	0/0	9/16	9
Saved %	–	56%	28%
Times Broken	0	7	7

Bublik
	R1 Cilic	R2 Schoolkate	Total
Score	6-4 6-1 6-4	6-3 6-3 6-3
Tot Set	3	3	6
Tot Games	27	27	54
pts	90-67	94-74	184-141
Total points	157	168	325
Winners	42	48	90
%Winners	47%	51%	49%
SERVE
Aces	16	16	32
Double Faults	4	6	10
1st in	44/79	57/89	101/168
% 1st in	56%	64%	60%
1st pts	42/44	48/57	90/101
% 1st pts	95%	84%	89%
2nd pts	16/35	14/32	30/67
% 2nd pts	46%	44%	45%
Breaks
Won	4	4	8
Converted	4/9	4/6	8/15
Converted %	44%	67%	53%
Conceded	2	4	6
Saved	2/2	4/4	6
Saved %	100%	100%	100%
Times Broken	0	0	0

Tennis Scores – U.S. Open

• Taylor FritzFritz – Jerome KymKym (7-6(3) 6-7(9) 6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Cameron NorrieNorrie (6-4 6-7⁴ 6-2 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Jan-Lennard StruffStruff – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (6-4 6-3 7-6⁷) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Jiri LeheckaLehecka – Raphael CollignonCollignon (6-4 6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Arthur RinderknechRinderknech – Benjamin BonziBonzi (4-6 6-3 6-3 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Luciano DarderiDarderi (6-2 6-4 6-0) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Tomas MachacMachac – Ugo BlanchetBlanchet (7-5 6-3 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Jannik SinnerSinner – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Alexander BublikBublik – Tommy PaulPaul (1-5) – H2H and prediction
• Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Flavio CobolliCobolli (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar – Zizou BergsBergs (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Alexander ZverevZverev – Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime (6-2) – H2H and prediction
• Kamil MajchrzakMajchrzak – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Daniel AltmaierAltmaier – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Jan-Lennard StruffStruff (7-0) – H2H and prediction
• Arthur RinderknechRinderknech – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (0-3) – H2H and prediction