Jannik Sinner and Denis Shapovalov will clash against each other in the 3^rd round of the U.S. Open for the 2^nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 1:30 pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jannik Sinner who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Jannik Sinner is the pick to win this match.
Jannik Sinner -> 1.045
Denis Shapovalov -> 10.5

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Prediction and head to head Jannik Sinner vs. Denis Shapovalov

This will be the 2^nd time that Jannik Sinner and Denis Shapovalov play each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Shapovalov (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they fought against each other, Shapovalov won 3-6 6-3 6-2 4-6 6-4 in the 1^st round in at the Australian Open back in 2021.

Highlights Denis Shapovalov vs Jannik Sinner – Australian Open 08-February-2021

Jannik Sinner

Currently world no. 1 Sinner reached the 3^rd round after defeating Vit Kopriva 6-1 6-1 6-2 and Alexei Popyrin 6-3 6-2 6-2.

In the 2^nd round, Jannik had a good straight sets win against Popyrin (6-3 6-2 6-2). During the match, Sinner scored 95 points vs Popyrin’s 61. Sinner was exceptionally aggressive to blast 33 winners.

Talking about the service games, Sinner struck 6 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Jannik Sinner was very effective on serve to win 80% (33/41) of his 1st serve and 60% (24/40) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Sinner broke Popyrin 5 times after converting 56% of his break points (5/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Jannik hasn’t lost yet a set in this competition to win 62% of the points he played.

Sinner has a fantastic win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 75% of his matches (379-125). 14-1 on hard in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Sinner has a composed152-47 record in the last 8 years on hard.

His best result of the season was conquering the title at the Australian Open where he defeated Alexander Zverev in the final 6-3 7-6(4) 6-3 and at the Wimbledon where he defeated Carlos Alcaraz in the final 4-6 6-4 6-4 6-4.

Sinner has an overall 33-4 win-loss record in 2025, 14-1 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Denis Shapovalov

Ranked no. 29, the Canadian got to the 3^rd round after defeating Marton Fucsovics 6-4 6-4 6-0 and Valentin Royer 7-6(6) 3-6 7-6(4) 6-3.

In the 2^nd round, Shapovalov defeated Royer (7-6⁶ 3-6 7-6⁴ 6-3). During the match Shapovalov scored 155 points vs Royer’s 145. Shapovalov was extremely aggressive to blast 58 winners.

Talking about serving, Shapovalov overpowered his opponent with 29 aces and he was not very steady on his 2nd serve to score 15 double faults. Denis Shapovalov lost the serve 5 times and he saved 8 break points. Furthermore, Shapovalov put 53% of his first serves in, winning 82% (58/71) of the points behind his 1st serve and 44% (27/62) on the 2nd serve. Shapovalov broke Royer 6 times after converting 43% of his break points (6/14).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Denis has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.

His best result of the season was winning the title in Dallas where he defeated Casper Ruud in the final 7-6(5) 6-3 and in Los Cabos where he defeated Aleksandar Kovacevic in the final 6-4 6-2.

Shapovalov has a composed 21-16 win-loss record in 2025, 13-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Previously, his best result was reaching the quarter in 2020. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Sinner	Shapovalov
Match played	2	2
Tot Set	6	7
Tot Games	47	70
Pts	179-108	251-214
Total Points	287	465
Winners	66	85
%Winners	37%	34%

Both Sinner and Shapovalov played 2 matches. At the moment, Denis Shapovalov dropped 1 set while Jannik Sinner hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Sinner has played 1 set(s) less than Shapovalov (6 vs 7). Therefore, Sinner played 23 games less than Shapovalov. Sinner scored 66 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, The Canadian blasted 85 winners (34%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Sinner	Shapovalov
Aces	13	37
Avg per match	6.5	18.5
1st in	81/149	111/212
%1st in	54%	52%
1st pts	66/81	85/111
%1st pts	81%	77%
2nd pts	39/68	49/101
%2nd pts	57%	49%

Sinner fired 13 aces (6.5 per match). Shapovalov struck 37 aces (18.5 per match). Sinner won 81% points behind his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 57% of the points. On the other side, Shapovalov won 77% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 49% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Sinner	Shapovalov
Won	12	14
Converted	12/19	14/25
% Converted	63%	56%
Conceded	7	20
Saved	7	12
% Saved	100%	60%
Times Broken	0	8

Jannik broke his opponents 12 times with a 63% conversion rate. Jannik very solid his serve as he has never surrendered a single service game after saving 7 break points. The Canadian broke his opponents 14 times with a 56% conversion rate. Shapovalov conceded his serve 8 times and he saved 60% of the break points that he conceded.

Sinner
	R1 Kopriva	R2 Popyrin	Total
Score	6-1 6-1 6-2	6-3 6-2 6-2
Tot Set	3	3	6
Tot Games	22	25	47
pts	84-47	95-61	179-108
Total points	131	156	287
Winners	33	33	66
%Winners	39%	35%	37%
SERVE
Aces	7	6	13
Double Faults	1	4	5
1st in	40/68	41/81	81/149
% 1st in	59%	51%	54%
1st pts	33/40	33/41	66/81
% 1st pts	83%	80%	81%
2nd pts	15/28	24/40	39/68
% 2nd pts	54%	60%	57%
Breaks
Won	7	5	12
Converted	7/10	5/9	12/19
Converted %	70%	56%	63%
Conceded	2	5	7
Saved	2/2	5/5	7
Saved %	100%	100%	100%
Times Broken	0	0	0

Shapovalov
	R1 Fucsovics	R2 Royer	Total
Score	6-4 6-4 6-0	7-66 3-6 7-64 6-3
Tot Set	3	4	7
Tot Games	26	44	70
pts	96-69	155-145	251-214
Total points	165	300	465
Winners	27	58	85
%Winners	28%	37%	34%
SERVE
Aces	8	29	37
Double Faults	5	15	20
1st in	40/79	71/133	111/212
% 1st in	51%	53%	52%
1st pts	27/40	58/71	85/111
% 1st pts	68%	82%	77%
2nd pts	22/39	27/62	49/101
% 2nd pts	56%	44%	49%
Breaks
Won	8	6	14
Converted	8/11	6/14	14/25
Converted %	73%	43%	56%
Conceded	7	13	20
Saved	4/7	8/13	12
Saved %	57%	62%	60%
Times Broken	3	5	8

Tennis Scores – U.S. Open

• Taylor FritzFritz – Jerome KymKym (7-6(3) 6-7(9) 6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Luciano DarderiDarderi (6-2 6-4 6-0) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Tomas MachacMachac – Ugo BlanchetBlanchet (7-5 6-3 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Cameron NorrieNorrie (6-4 6-7⁴ 6-2 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Jan-Lennard StruffStruff – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (6-4 6-3 7-6⁷) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Jiri LeheckaLehecka – Raphael CollignonCollignon (6-4 6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Arthur RinderknechRinderknech – Benjamin BonziBonzi (4-6 6-3 6-3 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Jannik SinnerSinner – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Alexander BublikBublik – Tommy PaulPaul (1-5) – H2H and prediction
• Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – Flavio CobolliCobolli (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar – Zizou BergsBergs (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Alexander ZverevZverev – Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime (6-2) – H2H and prediction
• Kamil MajchrzakMajchrzak – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Daniel AltmaierAltmaier – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Jan-Lennard StruffStruff (7-0) – H2H and prediction
• Arthur RinderknechRinderknech – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (0-3) – H2H and prediction