Aryna Sabalenka is 5 wins away to conquer the title at the U.S. Open. The Belarussian has defeated Rebeka Masarova 7-5 6-1 and Polina Kudermetova 7-64 6-2 to reach the 3rd round where she will face Leylah Annie Fernandez.

Draw prediction with head to head records

This is Aryna Sabalenka’s projected draw includingherlikely opponents at the U.S. Open. The Belarussian has a winning record (28-15) against the presumable opponents.

R1 – Rebeka Masarova (108) – 7-5 6-1
R2 – Polina Kudermetova (67) – 7-64 6-2
R3 – Leylah Annie Fernandez (30) – H2H 0-1
R4 – Elise Mertens (21) – H2H 11-2
or Cristina Bucsa (95) – H2H 0-0
1/4 – Jasmine Paolini (8) – H2H 5-2
or Elena Rybakina (10) – H2H 7-5
1/2 – Jessica Pegula (4) – H2H 7-2
or Mirra Andreeva (5) – H2H 4-2
Fin – Iga Swiatek (2) – H2H 5-8
or Cori Gauff (3) – H2H 5-6
Latest Updated
Draw

R3 – Leylah Annie Fernandez’s rankings and performance.

Head to head 1-0 for Leylah Annie Fernandez

34 - 25win/loss in 2025

Rank
22
High
13
LWWWLWW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 34-25 28-16 2-5 0-0 4-4 0-0
2024 31-25 18-15 6-6 0-1 7-3 0-0
2023 41-24 28-16 5-6 6-0 2-2 0-0
2022 21-15 12-10 6-4 3-1 0-0 0-0
2021 25-17 19-10 3-5 2-0 1-2 0-0
2020 20-10 17-7 2-2 1-1 0-0 0-0
2019 35-17 23-10 10-5 2-2 0-0 0-0
2018 9-9 4-4 4-4 1-1 0-0 0-0

Leylah Annie Fernandez has a 24-20 win-loss record in 2025, 18-11 on hard. As for the last 9 years, Annie Fernandez has a 143-87 record on hard (Click here to see full career record). The Canadian won 7 of her last 10 matches.

Her most significant result of this year was conquering the tournament in Washington where she overcame Anna Kalinskaya in the final 6-1 6-2.

Last year at the U.S. Open Leylah lost to Anastasia Potapova in the 1st round 2-6 6-4 7-5.

H2H Aryna Sabalenka vs. Leylah Annie Fernandez

This contest would be 2nd time that Aryna Sabalenka and Leylah Annie Fernandez fight against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Annie Fernandez (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard in major tournaments.

R4 – Elise Mertens’s rankings and performance.

Head to head 11-2 for Aryna Sabalenka

36 - 20win/loss in 2025

Rank
20
High
12
LWWLLLW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 36-20 17-13 6-5 5-0 8-2 0-0
2024 28-25 18-15 6-5 1-1 3-4 0-0
2023 30-22 24-16 5-4 0-0 1-2 0-0
2022 29-23 19-14 4-3 2-2 4-4 0-0
2021 33-20 20-10 9-5 2-2 2-3 0-0
2020 34-13 17-7 9-4 8-2 0-0 0-0
2019 35-27 23-14 4-6 1-3 7-4 0-0
2018 46-21 25-13 16-2 1-2 4-4 0-0

Elise Mertens has a 34-16 record in 2025, 15-9 on hard. Talking about the previous 14 years, Elise has a 278-145 record on hard (Click here to see full career record). The Belgian won 6 of her last 10 matches.

Her best result of this year was winning the title in Singapore where she beat Ann Li in the final 6-1 6-4, and in Hertogenbosch where she overcame Elena Gabriela Ruse in the final 6-3 7-6(4).

Last year at the U.S. Open Elise capitulated to Aryna Sabalenka in the 4th round 6-2 6-4.

H2H Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elise Mertens

This contest would be 14th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Elise Mertens square off. The head to head is 11-2 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 5-1 on hard in major tournaments.

Anyhow, Aryna Sabalenka may take on Cristina Bucsa. Their H2H is 0-0.

1/4 – Jasmine Paolini’s rankings and performance.

Head to head 5-2 for Aryna Sabalenka

46 - 21win/loss in 2025

Rank
8
High
4
LLLLWWL
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 46-21 27-12 13-3 3-3 3-3 0-0
2024 42-21 19-10 12-5 3-4 8-2 0-0
2023 43-30 20-16 16-8 5-3 2-3 0-0
2022 30-25 14-11 10-10 6-3 0-1 0-0
2021 34-24 17-13 12-7 5-3 0-1 0-0
2020 7-15 1-8 4-5 2-2 0-0 0-0
2019 48-29 12-8 32-14 4-6 0-1 0-0
2018 28-33 9-9 18-18 1-3 0-3 0-0

Jasmine Paolini has a 35-14 record in 2025, 19-8 on hard. In the previous 13 years, Paolini has a 146-105 record on hard (Click here

to see full career record). Paolini won 7 of her last 10 matches.

Her most significant achievement of this season was conquering the tournament in Rome where she beat Cori Gauff in the final 6-4 6-2.

Last year at the U.S. Open Jasmine was defeated by Karolina Muchova in the 4th round 6-3 6-3.

H2H Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jasmine Paolini

This would be the 8th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Jasmine Paolini square off. The head to head is 5-2 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 2-1 on hard in major tournaments.

Nonetheless, Aryna Sabalenka may square off with Elena Rybakina. Their head to head record is 7-5 for Aryna Sabalenka

.

1/2 – Jessica Pegula’s rankings and performance.

Head to head 7-2 for Aryna Sabalenka

53 - 23win/loss in 2025

Rank
6
High
3
LWLWLWW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 53-23 35-12 11-5 3-4 4-2 0-0
2024 39-16 29-9 4-2 0-2 6-3 0-0
2023 59-18 45-12 8-4 0-0 6-2 0-0
2022 42-21 28-15 11-4 1-1 2-1 0-0
2021 39-19 29-12 6-4 0-0 4-3 0-0
2020 17-9 16-7 0-1 1-1 0-0 0-0
2019 25-19 14-10 4-5 4-1 3-3 0-0
2018 50-22 21-9 22-10 7-2 0-1 0-0

Jessica Pegula has a 39-16 record in 2025, 24-9 on hard. Talking about the previous 17 years, Pegula has a 275-135 record on hard (Click here to see full career record). Pegula won 6 of her last 10 matches.

Her best achievement of the current year was conquering the tournament in Austin where she overcame Mccartney Kessler in the final 7-5 6-2, in Charleston where she defeated Sofia Kenin in the final 6-3 7-5, and in Bad Homburg where she beat Iga Swiatek in the final 6-4 7-5.

Last year at the U.S. Open Pegula lost to Aryna Sabalenka in the final 7-5 7-5.

H2H Aryna Sabalenka vs. Jessica Pegula

This match would represent the 10th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Jessica Pegula play each other. The head to head is 7-2 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 4-2 on hard in major tournaments.

Anyhow, Aryna Sabalenka could square off with Mirra Andreeva. Their head to head record is 4-2 for Aryna Sabalenka.

Final – Iga Swiatek’s rankings and performance.

Head to head 8-5 for Iga Swiatek

64 - 17win/loss in 2025

Rank
2
High
1
WWLLWLW
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 64-17 40-10 11-4 3-2 10-1 0-0
2024 64-9 29-5 26-2 7-1 2-1 0-0
2023 68-11 42-8 19-2 0-0 7-1 0-0
2022 67-9 42-6 18-1 5-1 2-1 0-0
2021 36-15 18-10 12-2 2-1 4-2 0-0
2020 16-5 6-4 7-1 3-0 0-0 0-0
2019 34-17 17-8 10-3 4-3 3-3 0-0
2018 43-6 8-1 34-5 1-0 0-0 0-0

Iga Swiatek has a 51-12 win-loss record in 2025, 30-7 on hard. In the previous 10 years, Iga has a 192-49 record on hard (Click here to see full career record). Iga will try to keep a positive momentum since she is on a 7 matches winning streak.

Her best result of this current season was winning the tournament at the Wimbledon where she beat Amanda Anisimova in the final 6-0 6-0, and in Cincinnati where she beat Jasmine Paolini in the final 7-5 6-4.

Last year at the U.S. Open Iga lost to Jessica Pegula in the quarter 6-2 6-4.

H2H Aryna Sabalenka vs. Iga Swiatek

This contest would be 14th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek clash against each other. The head to head is 8-5 for Swiatek (see full H2H stats), but they are 3-3 on hard in major tournaments.

Alternatively, Aryna Sabalenka could come up against Cori Gauff. Their head to head record is 6-5 for Cori Gauff.