Sho Shimabukuro and Ilia Simakin will fight against each other in the quarter of the Zhangjiagang Challenger for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 4:00 pm on Centre Court. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Sho Shimabukuro who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Sho Shimabukuro is the pick to win this match.
Sho Shimabukuro -> 1.73
Ilia Simakin -> 2.01

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Prediction and head to head Sho Shimabukuro vs. Ilia Simakin

There is no head to head record between Sho Shimabukuro and Ilia Simakin since this will be the first time that they will fight against each other in the main tour.

Sho Shimabukuro

Ranked no. 198, Sho got to the quarter after defeating James Watt 6-4 3-6 6-2 and Filip Peliwo 6-3 6-4.

In the 2^nd round, Sho had a good straight sets win against Peliwo (6-3 6-4). During the match, Shimabukuro scored 68 points vs Peliwo’s 48. Shimabukuro was exceptionally aggressive to blast 25 winners.

Talking about the service games, Shimabukuro struck 6 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Sho Shimabukuro was extremely efficient on serve to win 93% (25/27) of his 1st serve and 55% (16/29) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Shimabukuro broke Peliwo 3 times after converting 38% of his break points (3/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Shimabukuro has dropped 1 set in this tournament to win 56% of the points he played.

Shimabukuro has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 61% of his matches (255-163). 11-14 on hard in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Shimabukuro has a compiled 189-117 win-loss record in the last years on hard.

Sho’s best result of the year was getting to the semifinal in the Winnipeg Challenger.

Shimabukuro has a compiled 14-17 win-loss record in 2025, 11-14 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Zhangjiagang Challenger

The Japanese has never competed in this tournament before.

Ilia Simakin

Ranked no. 236, Simakin got to the quarter after beating Tung-Lin Wu 6-4 7-6(1) and Joshua Charlton 6-4 6-4.

In the 2^nd round, Simakin had a good straight sets win against Charlton (6-4 6-4). During the match Simakin scored 62 points vs Charlton’s 49. Simakin was pretty aggressive to blast 27 winners.

Talking about serving, Simakin fired 8 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Ilia Simakin was quite effective on serve to win 84% (27/32) of his 1st serve and 68% (13/19) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Russian broke Charlton twice after converting 67% of his break points (2/3).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Russian hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.

Ilia’s best result of the season was reaching the final in the Chisinau Challenger.

The Russian has a composed 35-13 win-loss record in 2025, 35-13 on hard (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Shimabukuro	Simakin
Match played	2	2
Tot Set	5	4
Tot Games	46	43
Pts	158-126	141-114
Total Points	284	255
Winners	49	68
%Winners	31%	48%

Both Shimabukuro and Simakin played 2 matches. At the moment, Sho Shimabukuro lost 1 set while Ilia Simakin hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Shimabukuro has played 1 set more than Simakin (5 vs 4). Therefore, Shimabukuro played 3 games more than Simakin. The Japanese scored 49 winners (31% of the total points). On the other side, The Russian fired 68 winners (48%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Shimabukuro	Simakin
Aces	13	19
Avg per match	6.5	9.5
1st in	55/124	79/121
%1st in	44%	65%
1st pts	49/55	68/79
%1st pts	89%	86%
2nd pts	40/69	23/42
%2nd pts	58%	55%

Shimabukuro managed to score 13 aces (6.5 per match). Simakin scored 19 aces (9.5 per match). Shimabukuro won 89% points behind his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 58% of the points. On the other side, Simakin won 86% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 55% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Shimabukuro	Simakin
Won	7	3
Converted	7/18	3/6
% Converted	39%	50%
Conceded	8	6
Saved	5	6
% Saved	63%	100%
Times Broken	3	0

Sho broke his opponents 7 times with a 39% conversion rate. Sho dropped his serve 3 times and he saved 63% of the break points that he conceded. The Russian broke his opponents 3 times with a 50% conversion rate. Ilia was rock solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 6 break points.

Shimabukuro
	R1 Watt	R2 Peliwo	Total
Score	6-4 3-6 6-2	6-3 6-4
Tot Set	3	2	5
Tot Games	27	19	46
pts	90-78	68-48	158-126
Total points	168	116	284
Winners	24	25	49
%Winners	27%	37%	31%
SERVE
Aces	7	6	13
Double Faults	9	3	12
1st in	28/68	27/56	55/124
% 1st in	41%	48%	44%
1st pts	24/28	25/27	49/55
% 1st pts	86%	93%	89%
2nd pts	24/40	16/29	40/69
% 2nd pts	60%	55%	58%
Breaks
Won	4	3	7
Converted	4/10	3/8	7/18
Converted %	40%	38%	39%
Conceded	4	4	8
Saved	2/4	3/4	5
Saved %	50%	75%	63%
Times Broken	2	1	3

Simakin
	R1 Wu	R2 Charlton	Total
Score	6-4 7-61	6-4 6-4
Tot Set	2	2	4
Tot Games	23	20	43
pts	79-65	62-49	141-114
Total points	144	111	255
Winners	41	27	68
%Winners	52%	44%	48%
SERVE
Aces	11	8	19
Double Faults	3	3	6
1st in	47/70	32/51	79/121
% 1st in	67%	63%	65%
1st pts	41/47	27/32	68/79
% 1st pts	87%	84%	86%
2nd pts	10/23	13/19	23/42
% 2nd pts	43%	68%	55%
Breaks
Won	1	2	3
Converted	1/3	2/3	3/6
Converted %	33%	67%	50%
Conceded	6	0	6
Saved	6/6	0/0	6
Saved %	100%	–	50%
Times Broken	0	0	0

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• Renta TokudaTokuda – Oliver CrawfordCrawford (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Sanhui ShinShin – (1-1) – H2H and prediction