Jasmine Paolini and Marketa Vondrousova will clash against each other in the 3rd round of the U.S. Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 1:00 pm on Grandstand. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jasmine Paolini who should win in 3 sets.
Jasmine Paolini -> 1.85
Marketa Vondrousova -> 1.95
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Prediction and head to head Jasmine Paolini vs. Marketa Vondrousova
This will be the 2nd time that Jasmine Paolini and Marketa Vondrousova square off. The head to head is 1-0 for Vondrousova (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.
The last time that they played each other, Vondrousova won 7-5 6-2 in the qualifications in Biel back in 2017.
Jasmine Paolini
35 - 14win/loss
8
4
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 46-21 | 27-12 | 13-3 | 3-3 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 42-21 | 19-10 | 12-5 | 3-4 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 43-30 | 20-16 | 16-8 | 5-3 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-25 | 14-11 | 10-10 | 6-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 34-24 | 17-13 | 12-7 | 5-3 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 8, Jasmine got to the 3rd round after defeating Destanee Aiava 6-2 7-6(4) and Iva Jovic 6-3 6-3.
In the 2nd round, Paolini had a good straight sets win against Jovic (6-3 6-3). During the match, Paolini and Jovic scored the same amount of points (). However, the world no. 8 was stronger during the important points and that was the most significant difference in the match. The Italian was not very aggressive to strike just winners.
Talking about the service games, Paolini wasn’t able to score even 1 ace throughout the match and she was exceptionally steady in conceding no double faults. Jasmine Paolini conceded no breaks for the entire match to put 0% of her first serves in, win 0% (0) of the points behind her 1st serve and 0% (0) on the 2nd serve.
Overall Performance in this tournament
Paolini hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this competition to conquer 54% of the points she played.
Paolini has positive win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 58% of her matches (345-245). 19-8 on hard in 2025. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this event, Paolini has an overall 123-94 record in the last years on hard.
Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Rome where she defeated Cori Gauff in the final 6-4 6-2.
Paolini has an overall 35-14 win-loss record in 2025, 19-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Marketa Vondrousova
16 - 8win/loss
34
6
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 18-10 | 10-8 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 6-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 16-11 | 5-4 | 10-5 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 41-18 | 19-12 | 9-3 | 4-2 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 21-7 | 11-3 | 2-1 | 8-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 34-19 | 21-10 | 4-4 | 8-2 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 60, the Czech reached the 3rd round after defeating Oksana Selekhmeteva 6-3 7-6(3) and Mccartney Kessler 7-6(7) 6-2.
In the 2nd round, Marketa had a good straight sets win against Kessler (7-67 6-2). During the match Vondrousova scored 87 points vs Kessler’s 78. Marketa was very aggressive to blast 31 winners.
Talking about serving, Vondrousova blasted 4 aces and she committed only 9 double faults. Marketa Vondrousova lost the serve 3 times and she saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Vondrousova put 56% of her first serves in, winning 65% (31/48) of the points behind her 1st serve and 46% (17/37) on the 2nd serve. Vondrousova broke Kessler 5 times after converting 42% of her break points (5/12).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Vondrousova hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 55% of the points she played.
Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Berlin where she overcame Xinyu Wang in the final 7-6(10) 4-6 6-2.
Marketa has an aggregate 16-8 win-loss record in 2025, 8-6 on hard (See FULL STATS)
.Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2023. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Paolini | Vondrousova |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Games | 39 | 43 |
| Pts | 78-66 | 178-147 |
| Total Points | 144 | 325 |
| Winners | 27 | 63 |
| %Winners | 35% | 35% |
Both Paolini and Vondrousova played 2 matches. Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Paolini and Vondrousova have played the same amount of sets 4. However, Paolini played 4 games less than Vondrousova. Paolini scored 27 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, Vondrousova struck 63 winners (35%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Paolini | Vondrousova |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 0 | 8 |
| Avg per match | 0 | 4 |
| 1st in | 39/62 | 93/163 |
| %1st in | 63% | 57% |
| 1st pts | 27/39 | 63/93 |
| %1st pts | 69% | 68% |
| 2nd pts | 12/23 | 30/70 |
| %2nd pts | 52% | 43% |
Paolini didn’t manage to fire a single ace to far. Vondrousova bagged 8 aces (4 per match). Paolini won 69% points behind her first serve. She pretty solid on her second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Vondrousova won 68% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 43% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Paolini | Vondrousova |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 4 | 11 |
| Converted | 4/7 | 11/22 |
| % Converted | 57% | 50% |
| Conceded | 2 | 19 |
| Saved | 0 | 11 |
| % Saved | 0% | 58% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 8 |
Jasmine broke her opponents 4 times with a 57% conversion rate. Jasmine conceded her serve twice and she saved 0% of the break points that she conceded. Vondrousova broke her opponents 11 times with a 50% conversion rate. Vondrousova conceded her serve 8 times and she saved 58% of the break points that she conceded.
| Paolini | ||||
| R1 Aiava | R2 Jovic | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 7-64 | 6-3 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 21 | 18 | 39 | |
| pts | 78-66 | – | 78-66 | |
| Total points | 144 | 0 | 144 | |
| Winners | 27 | 27 | ||
| %Winners | 35% | 0% | 35% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | ||
| 1st in | 39/62 | / | 39/62 | |
| % 1st in | 63% | 0% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 27/39 | / | 27/39 | |
| % 1st pts | 69% | 0% | 69% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/23 | / | 12/23 | |
| % 2nd pts | 52% | 0% | 52% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | ||
| Converted | 4/7 | / | 4/7 | |
| Converted % | 57% | 0% | 57% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 2 | ||
| Saved | 0/2 | 0/ | 0 | |
| Saved % | 0% | – | 0% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | ||
| Vondrousova | ||||
| R1 Selekhmeteva | R2 Kessler | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 7-63 | 7-67 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 21 | 43 | |
| pts | 91-69 | 87-78 | 178-147 | |
| Total points | 160 | 165 | 325 | |
| Winners | 32 | 31 | 63 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 36% | 35% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 4 | 4 | 8 | |
| Double Faults | 12 | 9 | 21 | |
| 1st in | 45/78 | 48/85 | 93/163 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 56% | 57% | |
| 1st pts | 32/45 | 31/48 | 63/93 | |
| % 1st pts | 71% | 65% | 68% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/33 | 17/37 | 30/70 | |
| % 2nd pts | 39% | 46% | 43% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 6 | 5 | 11 | |
| Converted | 6/10 | 5/12 | 11/22 | |
| Converted % | 60% | 42% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 10 | 9 | 19 | |
| Saved | 5/10 | 6/9 | 11 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 67% | 59% | |
| Times Broken | 5 | 3 | 8 | |
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- Lukas RosolRosol – Mikael YmerYmer (6-3 7-64) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Dennis NovakNovak – Paul JubbJubb (6-3 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Ugo HumbertHumbert – Soon-Woo KwonKwon (6-2 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Kamil MajchrzakMajchrzak – Jiri VeselyVesely (6-3 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
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- Sorana CirsteaCirstea – Karolina MuchovaMuchova (1-5) – H2H and prediction
- Darya KasatkinaKasatkina – Kamilla RakhimovaRakhimova (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Donna VekicVekic – Cori GauffGauff (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jaqueline CristianCristian – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Anastasia ZakharovaZakharova – Laura SiegemundSiegemund (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Leylah Annie FernandezAnnie Fernandez (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Elise MertensMertens – Cristina BucsaBucsa (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Elena RybakinaRybakina – Emma RaducanuRaducanu (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Marketa VondrousovaVondrousova – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Jessica PegulaPegula – Victoria AzarenkaAzarenka (3-3) – H2H and prediction
- Priscilla HonHon – Ann LiLi (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Emma NavarroNavarro – Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikova (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Taylor TownsendTownsend – (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Beatriz Haddad MaiaHaddad Maia – Maria SakkariSakkari (4-0) – H2H and prediction
- Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (1-1) – H2H and prediction