Frances Tiafoe and Jan-Lennard Struff will fight against each other in the 3^rd round of the U.S. Open for the 4^th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 3:00 pm on Grandstand. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Frances Tiafoe who should win in 4 sets.

As per the initial odds, Frances Tiafoe is the pick to win this match.
Frances Tiafoe -> 1.32
Jan-Lennard Struff -> 3.38

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Prediction and head to head Frances Tiafoe vs. Jan-Lennard Struff

This will be the 4^th time that Frances Tiafoe and Jan-Lennard Struff square off. The head to head is 2-1 for Tiafoe (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.

The last time that they competed against each other, Tiafoe won 4-6 7-6(1) 7-6(8) in the final in Stuttgart back in 2023.

Highlights Frances Tiafoe vs Jan-Lennard Struff – Stuttgart 18-June-2023

Frances Tiafoe

Ranked no. 17, Tiafoe got to the 3^rd round after beating Yoshihito Nishioka 6-3 7-6(6) 6-3 and Martin Damm 6-4 7-5 6-7(8) 7-5.

In the 2^nd round, The American had a good straight sets win against Damm (6-4 7-5 6-7⁸ 7-5). During the match, Tiafoe scored 142 points vs Damm’s 123. Tiafoe was quite aggressive to blast 66 winners.

Regarding the service games, Tiafoe recorded 13 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Frances Tiafoe was quite efficient on serve to win 86% (66/77) of his 1st serve and 74% (34/46) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Francis broke Damm 3 times after converting 33% of his break points (3/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Francis has conceded 1 set in this tournament to conquer 54% of the points he played.

Tiafoe has winning match record in the last 10 years having won 58% of his matches (328-242). 13-8 on hard in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Tiafoe has a compiled 173-116 record in the last years on hard.

Francis’s best result of the current year was getting to the final in Houston.

Francis has a compiled 26-18 win-loss record in 2025, 13-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Jan-Lennard Struff

Ranked no. 144, Struff got to the 3^rd round after beating Clement Chidekh 6-4 6-1, Taro Daniel 2-6 6-4 6-1, Arthur Cazaux 7-6(4) 6-3, Mackenzie Mcdonald 3-6 7-6(4) 6-3 6-3 and Holger Rune 7-6(5) 2-6 6-3 4-6 7-5.

In the 2^nd round, Jan-Lennard had a tough win against Rune to overcome his opponent only in 5 sets (7-6⁵ 2-6 6-3 4-6 7-5). During the match Struff and Rune scored the same amount of points (159). However, the world no. 17 was stronger during the important points and that was the most significant difference in the match. Struff was quite aggressive to blast 74 winners.

About the serving games, Struff overwhelmed his opponent with 28 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Jan-Lennard Struff lost the serve 4 times and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Struff put 57% of his first serves in, winning 82% (74/90) of the points behind his 1st serve and 48% (33/69) on the 2nd serve. Jan-Lennard broke Rune 3 times after converting 33% of his break points (3/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Jan-Lennard started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 4 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.

The German has a composed 16-22 win-loss record in 2025, 6-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Previously, his best result was reaching the 3^rd round in 2018 and 2020. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Tiafoe	Struff
Match played	2	5
Tot Set	7	16
Tot Games	78	156
Pts	258-216	536-484
Total Points	474	1020
Winners	113	216
%Winners	44%	40%

Tiafoe played 2 matches while Struff competed in 5 matches. Struff started his run from the qualifications while Tiafoe had a direct access to the main draw. Both players lost a set in the event. Frances Tiafoe surrendered 1 set, while Jan-Lennard Struff lost 4 sets. Tiafoe has played 9 set(s) less than Struff (7 vs 16). Therefore, Tiafoe played 78 games less than Struff. Francis scored 113 winners (44% of the total points). On the other side, Struff bagged 216 winners (40%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Tiafoe	Struff
Aces	32	62
Avg per match	16	12.4
1st in	133/231	271/509
%1st in	58%	53%
1st pts	113/133	216/271
%1st pts	85%	80%
2nd pts	57/98	110/238
%2nd pts	58%	46%

Tiafoe recorded 32 aces (16 per match). Struff scored 62 aces (12.4 per match). Tiafoe won 85% points behind his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 58% of the points. On the other side, Struff won 80% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 46% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Tiafoe	Struff
Won	7	21
Converted	7/21	21/51
% Converted	33%	41%
Conceded	9	33
Saved	7	18
% Saved	78%	55%
Times Broken	2	15

Tiafoe broke his opponents 7 times with a 33% conversion rate. The American surrendered his serve twice and he saved 78% of the break points that he conceded. Jan-Lennard broke his opponents 21 times with a 41% conversion rate. Jan-Lennard conceded his serve 15 times and he saved 55% of the break points that he conceded.

Tiafoe
	R1 Nishioka	R2 Damm	Total
Score	6-3 7-66 6-3	6-4 7-5 6-78 7-5
Tot Set	3	4	7
Tot Games	31	47	78
pts	116-93	142-123	258-216
Total points	209	265	474
Winners	47	66	113
%Winners	41%	46%	44%
SERVE
Aces	19	13	32
Double Faults	2	1	3
1st in	56/108	77/123	133/231
% 1st in	52%	63%	58%
1st pts	47/56	66/77	113/133
% 1st pts	84%	86%	85%
2nd pts	23/52	34/46	57/98
% 2nd pts	44%	74%	58%
Breaks
Won	4	3	7
Converted	4/12	3/9	7/21
Converted %	33%	33%	33%
Conceded	6	3	9
Saved	4/6	3/3	7
Saved %	67%	100%	84%
Times Broken	2	0	2

Struff
	Q1 Chidekh	Q2 Daniel	Q3 Cazaux	R1 Mcdonald	R2 Rune	Total
Score	6-4 6-1	2-6 6-4 6-1	7-64 6-3	3-6 7-64 6-3 6-3	7-65 2-6 6-3 4-6 7-5
Tot Set	2	3	2	4	5	16
Tot Games	17	25	22	40	52	156
pts	65-46	92-82	80-75	140-122	159-159	536-484
Total points	111	174	155	262	318	1020
Winners	22	33	30	57	74	216
%Winners	34%	36%	38%	41%	47%	40%
SERVE
Aces	4	7	5	18	28	62
Double Faults	3	4	3	14	5	29
1st in	32/52	49/91	36/77	64/130	90/159	271/509
% 1st in	62%	54%	47%	49%	57%	53%
1st pts	22/32	33/49	30/36	57/64	74/90	216/271
% 1st pts	69%	67%	83%	89%	82%	80%
2nd pts	10/20	22/42	18/41	27/66	33/69	110/238
% 2nd pts	50%	52%	44%	41%	48%	46%
Breaks
Won	6	4	3	5	3	21
Converted	6/15	4/9	3/10	5/8	3/9	21/51
Converted %	40%	44%	30%	63%	33%	41%
Conceded	6	7	5	7	8	33
Saved	3/6	4/7	3/5	4/7	4/8	18
Saved %	50%	57%	60%	57%	50%	137%
Times Broken	3	3	2	3	4	15

Tennis Scores – U.S. Open

• Leandro RiediRiedi – Francisco CerundoloCerundolo (3-6 4-6 6-4 6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Valentin RoyerRoyer (7-6(6) 3-6 7-6(4) 6-3) – See score progression
• Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – David GoffinGoffin (6-4 6-0 6-2) – See score progression
• Jannik SinnerSinner – Alexei PopyrinPopyrin (6-3 6-2 6-2) – See score progression
• Andrey RublevRublev – Tristan BoyerBoyer (6-3 6-3 5-7 7-6⁴) – See score progression
• Chak Lam Coleman WongLam Coleman Wong – Adam WaltonWalton (7-6⁵ 6-2 4-6 6-4) – See score progression
• Jan-Lennard StruffStruff – Holger RuneRune (7-6⁵ 2-6 6-3 4-6 7-5) – See score progression
• Taylor FritzFritz – Lloyd HarrisHarris (4-6 7-6³ 6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Benjamin BonziBonzi – Marcos GironGiron (2-6 4-6 7-5 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Luciano DarderiDarderi – Eliot SpizzirriSpizzirri (6-0 7-6³ 2-6 6-4) – See score progression
• Adrian MannarinoMannarino – Jordan ThompsonThompson (6-4 6-7⁵ 6-3 6-3) – See score progression
• Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Mattia BellucciBellucci (6-1 6-0 6-3) – See score progression
• Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Zachary SvajdaSvajda (6-7⁵ 6-3 6-3 6-1) – See score progression
• Ugo BlanchetBlanchet – Jakub MensikMensik (6-7² 7-6⁵ 3-6 6-4 7-6⁷) – See score progression
• Zizou BergsBergs – Jack DraperDraper (w/o) – See score progression
• Jiri LeheckaLehecka – Tomas Martin EtcheverryMartin Etcheverry (3-6 6-0 6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Arthur RinderknechRinderknech – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina (6-4 3-6 2-6 6-2 6-3) – See score progression
• Cameron NorrieNorrie – Francisco ComesanaComesana (7-6⁵ 6-3 6-7⁰ 7-6⁴) – See score progression
• Tomas MachacMachac – Joao FonsecaFonseca (7-6⁴ 6-2 6-3) – See score progression
• Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Martin DammDamm (6-4 7-5 6-7⁸ 7-5) – See score progression
• Raphael CollignonCollignon – Casper RuudRuud (6-4 3-6 3-6 6-4 7-5) – See score progression
• Ben SheltonShelton – Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta (6-4 6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Jerome KymKym – Brandon NakashimaNakashima (4-6 7-6² 7-5 3-6 7-6⁸) – See score progression
• Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – David GoffinGoffin (6-4 6-0 6-2) – See score progression
• Zizou BergsBergs – Jack DraperDraper (w/o) – See score progression
• Chak Lam Coleman WongLam Coleman Wong – Adam WaltonWalton (7-6(5) 6-2 4-6 6-4) – See score progression
• Andrey RublevRublev – Tristan BoyerBoyer (6-3 6-3 5-7 7-6(4)) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Cameron NorrieNorrie (6-0) – H2H and prediction
• Alexander ZverevZverev – Jacob FearnleyFearnley (2-0) – H2H and prediction
• Alexander BublikBublik – Tristan SchoolkateSchoolkate (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Kamil MajchrzakMajchrzak (4-0) – H2H and prediction
• Benjamin BonziBonzi – Arthur RinderknechRinderknech (3-1) – H2H and prediction
• Roman SafiullinSafiullin – Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Jan-Lennard StruffStruff (2-1) – H2H and prediction
• Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Daniel AltmaierAltmaier (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Nuno BorgesBorges – Tommy PaulPaul (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby – Flavio CobolliCobolli (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Ugo BlanchetBlanchet – Tomas MachacMachac (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Jannik SinnerSinner – Alexei PopyrinPopyrin (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Jiri LeheckaLehecka – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Valentin RoyerRoyer – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Gabriel DialloDiallo – Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar (2-0) – H2H and prediction