Carlos Alcaraz and Luciano Darderi will face off in the 3^rd round of the U.S. Open for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 11: 30 am on Arthur Ashe Stadium. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.021
Luciano Darderi -> 13.5

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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Luciano Darderi

There is no head to head record between Carlos Alcaraz and Luciano Darderi since this will be the first time that they will square off in the main tour.

Carlos Alcaraz

Ranked no. 2, Carlos reached the 3^rd round after defeating Reilly Opelka 6-4 7-5 6-4 and Mattia Bellucci 6-1 6-0 6-3.

In the 2^nd round, Alcaraz had a good straight sets win against Bellucci (6-1 6-0 6-3). During the match, Alcaraz scored 89 points vs Bellucci’s 52. Alcaraz was quite aggressive to blast 30 winners.

Regarding the service games, Alcaraz bagged 7 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Carlos Alcaraz was very efficient on serve to win 86% (30/35) of his 1st serve and 65% (15/23) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Carlos broke Bellucci 7 times after converting 41% of his break points (7/17).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Carlos hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this competition to win 59% of the points he played.

Alcaraz has a fantastic record in the last 8 years having won 81% of his matches (343-82). 18-4 on hard in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Alcaraz has a composed115-29 record in the last 8 years on hard.

His best result of the current year was conquering the title in Rotterdam where he beat Alex De Minaur in the final 6-4 3-6 6-2 and in Carlo where he overcame Lorenzo Musetti in the final 3-6 6-1 6-0 and in Rome where he defeated Jannik Sinner in the final 7-6(5) 6-1 and at the French Open where he defeated Jannik Sinner in the final 4-6 6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(3) 7-6(2) and in London where he beat Jiri Lehecka in the final 7-5 6-7(5) 6-2 and in Cincinnati where he beat Jannik Sinner in the final 5-0 ret..

Alcaraz has an overall 56-6 win-loss record in 2025, 18-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Luciano Darderi

Ranked no. 34, Luciano reached the 3^rd round after defeating Rinky Hijikata 6-2 6-1 6-2 and Eliot Spizzirri 6-0 7-6(3) 2-6 6-4.

In the 2^nd round, Luciano had a good straight sets win against Spizzirri (6-0 7-6³ 2-6 6-4). During the match Darderi scored 114 points vs Spizzirri’s 100. The Italian was pretty aggressive to blast 50 winners.

About the serving games, Darderi struck 12 aces and he committed only 7 double faults. Luciano Darderi lost the serve 3 times and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Darderi put 57% of his first serves in, winning 79% (50/63) of the points behind his 1st serve and 50% (24/48) on the 2nd serve. Luciano broke Spizzirri 5 times after converting 83% of his break points (5/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Italian has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 57% of the points he played.

His best result of the current season was winning the title in Marrakech where he defeated Tallon Griekspoor in the final 7-6(3) 7-6(4) and in Bastad where he defeated Jesper De Jong in the final 6-4 3-6 6-3 and in Umag where he defeated Carlos Taberner in the final 6-3 6-3.

Luciano has an overall 31-22 win-loss record in 2025, 4-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Previously, his best result was reaching the 1^st round in 2024. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Alcaraz	Darderi
Match played	2	2
Tot Set	6	7
Tot Games	54	60
Pts	196-134	196-148
Total Points	330	344
Winners	80	83
%Winners	41%	42%

Both Alcaraz and Darderi played 2 matches. At the moment, Luciano Darderi dropped 1 set while Carlos Alcaraz hasn’t conceded a set so far. Alcaraz has played 1 set(s) less than Darderi (6 vs 7). Therefore, Alcaraz played 6 games less than Darderi. Alcaraz scored 80 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Darderi scored 83 winners (42%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Alcaraz	Darderi
Aces	11	23
Avg per match	5.5	11.5
1st in	93/142	98/173
%1st in	65%	57%
1st pts	80/93	83/98
%1st pts	86%	85%
2nd pts	32/49	39/75
%2nd pts	65%	52%

Alcaraz recorded 11 aces (5.5 per match). Darderi bagged 23 aces (11.5 per match). Alcaraz won 86% points behind his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 65% of the points. On the other side, Darderi won 85% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 52% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Alcaraz	Darderi
Won	10	11
Converted	10/28	11/14
% Converted	36%	79%
Conceded	3	6
Saved	3	3
% Saved	100%	50%
Times Broken	0	3

Alcaraz broke his opponents 10 times with a 36% conversion rate. Alcaraz extremely effective on his serve as he has never lost a single service game after saving 3 break points. The Italian broke his opponents 11 times with a 79% conversion rate. Luciano conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded.

Alcaraz
	R1 Opelka	R2 Bellucci	Total
Score	6-4 7-5 6-4	6-1 6-0 6-3
Tot Set	3	3	6
Tot Games	32	22	54
pts	107-82	89-52	196-134
Total points	189	141	330
Winners	50	30	80
%Winners	47%	34%	41%
SERVE
Aces	4	7	11
Double Faults	6	2	8
1st in	58/84	35/58	93/142
% 1st in	69%	60%	65%
1st pts	50/58	30/35	80/93
% 1st pts	86%	86%	86%
2nd pts	17/26	15/23	32/49
% 2nd pts	65%	65%	65%
Breaks
Won	3	7	10
Converted	3/11	7/17	10/28
Converted %	27%	41%	36%
Conceded	3	0	3
Saved	3/3	0/0	3
Saved %	100%	–	50%
Times Broken	0	0	0

Darderi
	R1 Hijikata	R2 Spizzirri	Total
Score	6-2 6-1 6-2	6-0 7-63 2-6 6-4
Tot Set	3	4	7
Tot Games	23	37	60
pts	82-48	114-100	196-148
Total points	130	214	344
Winners	33	50	83
%Winners	40%	44%	42%
SERVE
Aces	11	12	23
Double Faults	6	7	13
1st in	35/62	63/111	98/173
% 1st in	56%	57%	57%
1st pts	33/35	50/63	83/98
% 1st pts	94%	79%	85%
2nd pts	15/27	24/48	39/75
% 2nd pts	56%	50%	52%
Breaks
Won	6	5	11
Converted	6/8	5/6	11/14
Converted %	75%	83%	79%
Conceded	0	6	6
Saved	0/0	3/6	3
Saved %	–	50%	25%
Times Broken	0	3	3

Tennis Scores – U.S. Open

• Jannik SinnerSinner – Alexei PopyrinPopyrin (6-3 6-2 6-2) – See score progression
• Chak Lam Coleman WongLam Coleman Wong – Adam WaltonWalton (7-6⁵ 6-2 4-6 6-4) – See score progression
• Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – David GoffinGoffin (6-4 6-0 6-2) – See score progression
• Leandro RiediRiedi – Francisco CerundoloCerundolo (3-6 4-6 6-4 6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Andrey RublevRublev – Tristan BoyerBoyer (6-3 6-3 5-7 7-6⁴) – See score progression
• Denis ShapovalovShapovalov – Valentin RoyerRoyer (7-6(6) 3-6 7-6(4) 6-3) – See score progression
• Jiri LeheckaLehecka – Tomas Martin EtcheverryMartin Etcheverry (3-6 6-0 6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Jan-Lennard StruffStruff – Holger RuneRune (7-6⁵ 2-6 6-3 4-6 7-5) – See score progression
• Adrian MannarinoMannarino – Jordan ThompsonThompson (6-4 6-7⁵ 6-3 6-3) – See score progression
• Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Mattia BellucciBellucci (6-1 6-0 6-3) – See score progression
• Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Zachary SvajdaSvajda (6-7⁵ 6-3 6-3 6-1) – See score progression
• Taylor FritzFritz – Lloyd HarrisHarris (4-6 7-6³ 6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Martin DammDamm (6-4 7-5 6-7⁸ 7-5) – See score progression
• Arthur RinderknechRinderknech – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina (6-4 3-6 2-6 6-2 6-3) – See score progression
• Cameron NorrieNorrie – Francisco ComesanaComesana (7-6⁵ 6-3 6-7⁰ 7-6⁴) – See score progression
• Tomas MachacMachac – Joao FonsecaFonseca (7-6⁴ 6-2 6-3) – See score progression
• Ugo BlanchetBlanchet – Jakub MensikMensik (6-7² 7-6⁵ 3-6 6-4 7-6⁷) – See score progression
• Zizou BergsBergs – Jack DraperDraper (w/o) – See score progression
• Benjamin BonziBonzi – Marcos GironGiron (2-6 4-6 7-5 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Luciano DarderiDarderi – Eliot SpizzirriSpizzirri (6-0 7-6³ 2-6 6-4) – See score progression
• Raphael CollignonCollignon – Casper RuudRuud (6-4 3-6 3-6 6-4 7-5) – See score progression
• Ben SheltonShelton – Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta (6-4 6-2 6-4) – See score progression
• Jerome KymKym – Brandon NakashimaNakashima (4-6 7-6² 7-5 3-6 7-6⁸) – See score progression
• Lorenzo MusettiMusetti – David GoffinGoffin (6-4 6-0 6-2) – See score progression
• Zizou BergsBergs – Jack DraperDraper (w/o) – See score progression
• Chak Lam Coleman WongLam Coleman Wong – Adam WaltonWalton (7-6(5) 6-2 4-6 6-4) – See score progression
• Andrey RublevRublev – Tristan BoyerBoyer (6-3 6-3 5-7 7-6(4)) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Novak DjokovicDjokovic – Cameron NorrieNorrie (6-0) – H2H and prediction
• Alexander ZverevZverev – Jacob FearnleyFearnley (2-0) – H2H and prediction
• Alexander BublikBublik – Tristan SchoolkateSchoolkate (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Kamil MajchrzakMajchrzak (4-0) – H2H and prediction
• Benjamin BonziBonzi – Arthur RinderknechRinderknech (3-1) – H2H and prediction
• Roman SafiullinSafiullin – Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Jan-Lennard StruffStruff (2-1) – H2H and prediction
• Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Daniel AltmaierAltmaier (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Nuno BorgesBorges – Tommy PaulPaul (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby – Flavio CobolliCobolli (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Ugo BlanchetBlanchet – Tomas MachacMachac (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Jannik SinnerSinner – Alexei PopyrinPopyrin (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Jiri LeheckaLehecka – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Valentin RoyerRoyer – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Gabriel DialloDiallo – Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar (2-0) – H2H and prediction