Nicolas Alvarez Varona and Gilles Arnaud Bailly will clash against each other in the quarter of the Porto 2 Challenger for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 1:00 pm on CENTRAL. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Nicolas Alvarez Varona who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Nicolas Alvarez Varona is the pick to win this match.
Nicolas Alvarez Varona -> 1.81
Gilles Arnaud Bailly -> 1.92

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Prediction and head to head Nicolas Alvarez Varona vs. Gilles Arnaud Bailly

There is no head to head record between Nicolas Alvarez Varona and Gilles Arnaud Bailly since this will be the first time that they will square off in the main tour.

Nicolas Alvarez Varona

Ranked no. 282, the Spaniard reached the quarter after defeating Robert Strombachs 6-0 6-2 and Alex Barrena 6-4 6-4.

In the 2^nd round, Nicolas had a good straight sets win against Barrena (6-4 6-4). During the match, Alvarez Varona scored 64 points vs Barrena’s 59. The Spaniard was exceptionally aggressive to blast 29 winners.

Talking about the service games, Alvarez Varona blasted 5 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Nicolas Alvarez Varona lost the serve once and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Alvarez Varona put 58% of his first serves in, winning 81% (29/36) of the points behind his 1st serve and 42% (11/26) on the 2nd serve. Alvarez Varona broke Barrena 3 times after converting 38% of his break points (3/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Nicolas hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this event to conquer 58% of the points he played.

Alvarez Varona has winning record in the last 10 years having won 58% of his matches (226-167). 13-12 on clay in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Alvarez Varona has a compiled 122-97 record in the last years on clay.

The Spaniard’s best result of the current season was getting to the final in the Segovia Challenger.

Nicolas has a compiled 26-19 win-loss record in 2025, 13-12 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Porto 2 Challenger

Alvarez Varona has never competed in this tournament before.

Gilles Arnaud Bailly

Ranked no. 341 (career-high), the Belgian reached the quarter after beating Maxim Mrva 6-1 6-2 and Pedro Araujo 6-0 6-1.

In the 2^nd round, The Belgian had a good straight sets win against Araujo (6-0 6-1). During the match Arnaud Bailly scored 58 points vs Araujo’s 29. The Belgian was extremely aggressive to blast 13 winners.

About the serving games, Arnaud Bailly scored just 1 ace during the entire match and he was quite solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Gilles Arnaud Bailly lost the serve once and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Arnaud Bailly put 51% of his first serves in, winning 65% (13/20) of the points behind his 1st serve and 74% (14/19) on the 2nd serve. Arnaud Bailly broke Araujo 7 times after converting 78% of his break points (7/9).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Arnaud Bailly hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 65% of the points he played.

The Belgian’s best result of the current year was getting to the final in M15 Monastir,M15 Antalya,M15 Oegstgeest,M25 Uriage and M25 Koksijde.

The Belgian has an overall 50-18 win-loss record in 2025, 31-11 on clay (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Alvarez Varona	Arnaud Bailly
Match played	2	2
Tot Set	4	4
Tot Games	34	28
Pts	116-83	119-64
Total Points	199	183
Winners	49	28
%Winners	42%	24%

Both Alvarez Varona and Arnaud Bailly played 2 matches. Both players have not dropped a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Alvarez Varona and Arnaud Bailly have played the same amount of sets 4. However, Alvarez Varona played 6 games more than Arnaud Bailly. Nicolas scored 49 winners (42% of the total points). On the other side, Arnaud Bailly struck 28 winners (24%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Alvarez Varona	Arnaud Bailly
Aces	12	1
Avg per match	6	0.5
1st in	61/102	46/83
%1st in	60%	55%
1st pts	49/61	28/46
%1st pts	80%	61%
2nd pts	21/41	25/37
%2nd pts	51%	68%

Alvarez Varona fired 12 aces (6 per match). Arnaud Bailly bagged 1 ace (0.5 per match). Alvarez Varona won 80% points behind his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 51% of the points. On the other side, Arnaud Bailly won 61% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 68% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Alvarez Varona	Arnaud Bailly
Won	8	14
Converted	8/13	14/23
% Converted	62%	61%
Conceded	6	9
Saved	5	6
% Saved	83%	67%
Times Broken	1	3

Alvarez Varona broke his opponents 8 times with a 62% conversion rate. Alvarez Varona dropped his serve once and he saved 83% of the break points that he conceded. Gilles broke his opponents 14 times with a 61% conversion rate. Arnaud Bailly conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded.

Alvarez Varona
	R1 Strombachs	R2 Barrena	Total
Score	6-0 6-2	6-4 6-4
Tot Set	2	2	4
Tot Games	14	20	34
pts	52-24	64-59	116-83
Total points	76	123	199
Winners	20	29	49
%Winners	38%	45%	42%
SERVE
Aces	7	5	12
Double Faults	2	4	6
1st in	25/40	36/62	61/102
% 1st in	63%	58%	60%
1st pts	20/25	29/36	49/61
% 1st pts	80%	81%	80%
2nd pts	10/15	11/26	21/41
% 2nd pts	67%	42%	51%
Breaks
Won	5	3	8
Converted	5/5	3/8	8/13
Converted %	100%	38%	62%
Conceded	1	5	6
Saved	1/1	4/5	5
Saved %	100%	80%	90%
Times Broken	0	1	1

Arnaud Bailly
	R1 Mrva	R2 Araujo	Total
Score	6-1 6-2	6-0 6-1
Tot Set	2	2	4
Tot Games	15	13	28
pts	61-35	58-29	119-64
Total points	96	87	183
Winners	15	13	28
%Winners	25%	22%	24%
SERVE
Aces	0	1	1
Double Faults	1	0	1
1st in	26/44	20/39	46/83
% 1st in	59%	51%	55%
1st pts	15/26	13/20	28/46
% 1st pts	58%	65%	61%
2nd pts	11/18	14/19	25/37
% 2nd pts	61%	74%	68%
Breaks
Won	7	7	14
Converted	7/14	7/9	14/23
Converted %	50%	78%	61%
Conceded	4	5	9
Saved	2/4	4/5	6
Saved %	50%	80%	65%
Times Broken	2	1	3

Tennis Scores in Porto 2 Challenger

• Ivan Sabanov/Matej SabanovSabanov/Matej Sabanov – Scott Duncan/Tom HandsDuncan/Tom Hands (6-3 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Frederico Ferreira SilvaFerreira Silva – David Jorda SanchisJorda Sanchis (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Nikolas Sanchez-IzquierdoSanchez-Izquierdo – Alejandro Moro CanasMoro Canas (3-1) – H2H and prediction
• Nicolas Alvarez VaronaAlvarez Varona – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Daniel MichalskiMichalski – (0-0) – H2H and prediction