Alex De Minaur and Shintaro Mochizuki will face off in the 2^nd round of the U.S. Open for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 6:00 pm on Stadium 17. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alex De Minaur who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Alex De Minaur is the pick to win this match.
Alex De Minaur -> 1.031
Shintaro Mochizuki -> 12

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Prediction and head to head Alex De Minaur vs. Shintaro Mochizuki

There is no head to head record between Alex De Minaur and Shintaro Mochizuki since this will be the first time that they will fight against each other in the main tour.

Alex De Minaur

Ranked no. 8, Alex got to the 2^nd round after beating Christopher O Connell 6-3 6-4 6-4.

In the 1^st round, The Australian had a good straight sets win against O Connell (6-3 6-4 6-4). During the match, De Minaur scored 95 points vs O Connell’s 76. The Australian was very aggressive to blast 36 winners.

Regarding the service games, De Minaur managed to score 10 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Alex De Minaur was exceptionally effective on serve to win 92% (36/39) of his 1st serve and 64% (25/39) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Australian broke O Connell 3 times after converting 27% of his break points (3/11).

De Minaur has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 64% of his matches (397-220). 20-7 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, De Minaur has an aggregate 191-93 win-loss record in the last years on hard.

His best result of the year was conquering the title in Washington where he beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the final 5-7 6-1 7-6(3).

Alex has an overall 38-15 win-loss record in 2025, 20-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Shintaro Mochizuki

Ranked no. 112 (career-high), the Japanese got to the 2^nd round after defeating Jurij Rodionov 6-2 4-6 6-2, Roman Andres Burruchaga 6-4 1-6 6-4, Daniel Elahi Galan 6-4 6-4 and Hugo Gaston 6-4 6-3 6-4.

In the 1^st round, The Japanese had a good straight sets win against Gaston (6-4 6-3 6-4). During the match Mochizuki scored 101 points vs Gaston’s 80. Mochizuki was pretty aggressive to blast 28 winners.

About the serving games, Mochizuki scored 4 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Shintaro Mochizuki lost the serve 5 times and he saved 6 break points. Furthermore, Mochizuki put 47% of his first serves in, winning 70% (28/40) of the points behind his 1st serve and 49% (22/45) on the 2nd serve. The Japanese broke Gaston 9 times after converting 39% of his break points (9/23).

His best result of the current season was conquering the title the Noumea Challenger where he overcame Moerani Bouzige in the final 6-1 6-3.

Mochizuki has an overall 37-21 win-loss record in 2025, 24-12 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously at the U.S. Open

Previously, his best result was reaching the qualifications in 2024. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	De Minaur	Mochizuki
Match played	1	4
Tot Set	3	11
Tot Games	29	102
Pts	95-76	349-306
Total Points	171	655
Winners	36	105
%Winners	38%	30%

De Minaur played 1 match while Mochizuki competed in 4 matches. Mochizuki started his run from the qualifications while De Minaur had a direct access to the main draw. At the moment, Shintaro Mochizuki conceded 2 sets while Alex De Minaur hasn’t surrendered a set so far. De Minaur has played 8 set(s) less than Mochizuki (3 vs 11). Therefore, De Minaur played 73 games less than Mochizuki. Alex scored 36 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Shintaro blasted 105 winners (30%).

Serve Performance

Serve	De Minaur	Mochizuki
Aces	10	14
Avg per match	10	3.5
1st in	39/78	155/327
%1st in	50%	47%
1st pts	36/39	105/155
%1st pts	92%	68%
2nd pts	25/39	88/172
%2nd pts	64%	51%

De Minaur blasted 10 aces . Mochizuki bagged 14 aces (3.5 per match). De Minaur won 92% points on his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 64% of the points. On the other side, Mochizuki won 68% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 51% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	De Minaur	Mochizuki
Won	3	23
Converted	3/11	23/50
% Converted	27%	46%
Conceded	0	34
Saved	0	20
% Saved	0%	59%
Times Broken	0	14

The Australian broke his opponent 3 times with a 27% conversion rate. Alex extremely effective on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 0 break points. Mochizuki broke his opponents 23 times with a 46% conversion rate. Mochizuki conceded his serve 14 times and he saved 59% of the break points that he conceded.

De Minaur
	R1 O Connell	Total
Score	6-3 6-4 6-4
Tot Set	3	3
Tot Games	29	29
pts	95-76	95-76
Total points	171	171
Winners	36	36
%Winners	38%	38%
SERVE
Aces	10	10
Double Faults	1	1
1st in	39/78	39/78
% 1st in	50%	50%
1st pts	36/39	36/39
% 1st pts	92%	92%
2nd pts	25/39	25/39
% 2nd pts	64%	64%
Breaks
Won	3	3
Converted	3/11	3/11
Converted %	27%	27%
Conceded	0	0
Saved	0/0	0
Saved %	–	0%
Times Broken	0	0

Mochizuki
	Q1 Rodionov	Q2 Andres	Q3 Elahi Galan Riveros	R1 Gaston	Total
Score	6-2 4-6 6-2	6-4 1-6 6-4	6-4 6-4	6-4 6-3 6-4
Tot Set	3	3	2	3	11
Tot Games	26	27	20	29	102
pts	97-81	77-82	74-63	101-80	349-306
Total points	178	159	137	181	655
Winners	28	22	27	28	105
%Winners	29%	29%	36%	28%	30%
SERVE
Aces	2	2	6	4	14
Double Faults	7	3	4	5	19
1st in	45/97	37/72	33/73	40/85	155/327
% 1st in	46%	51%	45%	47%	47%
1st pts	28/45	22/37	27/33	28/40	105/155
% 1st pts	62%	59%	82%	70%	68%
2nd pts	29/52	17/35	20/40	22/45	88/172
% 2nd pts	56%	49%	50%	49%	51%
Breaks
Won	6	5	3	9	23
Converted	6/10	5/9	3/8	9/23	23/50
Converted %	60%	56%	38%	39%	46%
Conceded	10	5	8	11	34
Saved	7/10	0/5	7/8	6/11	20
Saved %	70%	0%	88%	55%	213%
Times Broken	3	5	1	5	14

Tennis Scores – U.S. Open

• Zizou BergsBergs – Jack DraperDraper (w/o) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Jiri LeheckaLehecka – Tomas Martin EtcheverryMartin Etcheverry (3-6 6-0 6-2 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Tomas MachacMachac – Joao FonsecaFonseca (7-6(4) 6-2 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Novak DjokovicNovak – Zachary SvajdaZachary (6-7(5) 6-3 6-3 6-1) – See score progression

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