Aryna Sabalenka and Polina Kudermetova will play each other in the 2nd round of the U.S. Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Wednesday at 10:00 pm on Arthur Ashe Stadium. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.029
Polina Kudermetova -> 12.25
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Polina Kudermetova
This will be the 2nd time that Aryna Sabalenka and Polina Kudermetova fight against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they locked horns, Sabalenka won 4-6 6-3 6-2 in the final in Brisbane back in January 2025.
Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Polina Kudermetova – Brisbane 05-January-2025
Aryna Sabalenka
51 - 10win/loss
1
1
LWWWWLWWWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 63-12 | 35-6 | 17-3 | 4-1 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 56-14 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 Aryna reached the 2nd round after defeating Rebeka Masarova 7-5 6-1.
In the 1st round, Sabalenka had a good straight sets win against Masarova (7-5 6-1). During the match, Sabalenka scored 66 points vs Masarova’s 47. Sabalenka was very aggressive to blast 23 winners.
Regarding the service games, Sabalenka made 2 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Aryna Sabalenka was pretty efficient on serve to win 77% (23/30) of her 1st serve and 63% (17/27) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Sabalenka broke Masarova 4 times after converting 80% of her break points (4/5).
Sabalenka has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 70% of her matches (425-178). 27-5 on hard in 2025. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this event, Sabalenka has an aggregate 254-97 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Brisbane where she overcame Polina Kudermetova in the final 4-6 6-3 6-2 and in Miami where she overcame Jessica Pegula in the final 7-5 6-2 and in Madrid where she beat Cori Gauff in the final 6-3 7-6(3).
Sabalenka has an aggregate 51-10 win-loss record in 2025, 27-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Polina Kudermetova
16 - 19win/loss
92
54
LWLLLLWWLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 20-27 | 18-18 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 53-35 | 28-13 | 21-14 | 4-6 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| 2023 | 33-26 | 5-5 | 13-13 | 10-5 | 3-2 | 2-1 |
| 2022 | 54-19 | 30-14 | 8-3 | 16-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 21-13 | 3-2 | 9-7 | 9-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 67, Polina reached the 2nd round after beating Nuria Parrizas-Diaz 2-2 ret..
In the 1st round against Parrizas-Diaz, Kudermetova had a free pass after Parrizas-Diaz retired on a 2-2 . scoreline.
The Russian’s best result of the year was getting to the final in Brisbane.
Kudermetova has an aggregate 16-19 win-loss record in 2025, 15-11 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously at the U.S. Open
Previously, her best result was reaching the qualifications in 2024. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Kudermetova |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Games | 19 | 4 |
| Pts | 66-47 | 14-16 |
| Total Points | 113 | 30 |
| Winners | 23 | 6 |
| %Winners | 35% | 43% |
Both Sabalenka and Kudermetova played 1 match. Both players have not dropped a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Sabalenka and Kudermetova have played the same amount of sets 2. However, Sabalenka played 15 games more than Kudermetova. Aryna scored 23 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, Kudermetova fired 6 winners (43%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Kudermetova |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 2 | 4 |
| Avg per match | 2 | 4 |
| 1st in | 30/57 | 11/20 |
| %1st in | 53% | 55% |
| 1st pts | 23/30 | 6/11 |
| %1st pts | 77% | 55% |
| 2nd pts | 17/27 | 6/9 |
| %2nd pts | 63% | 67% |
Sabalenka blasted 2 aces . Kudermetova recorded 4 aces . Sabalenka won 77% points behind her first serve. She was rock solid on her second serve to win 63% of the points. On the other side, Kudermetova won 55% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 67% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Kudermetova |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 4 | 0 |
| Converted | 4/5 | 0/0 |
| % Converted | 80% | 0% |
| Conceded | 6 | 2 |
| Saved | 5 | 2 |
| % Saved | 83% | 100% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 |
Aryna broke her opponent 4 times with a 80% conversion rate. Aryna lost her serve once and she saved 83% of the break points that she conceded. On the other side, Kudermetova hasn’t manged yet to break her opponent. She didn’t manage to even clinch a single break point. The Russian was rock solid on her serve as she has never conceded a single service game after saving 2 break points without even conceding a single break point.
| Sabalenka | |||
| R1 Masarova |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 19 | |
| pts | 66-47 | 66-47 | |
| Total points | 113 | 113 | |
| Winners | 23 | 23 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 35% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 2 | 2 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 30/57 | 30/57 | |
| % 1st in | 53% | 53% | |
| 1st pts | 23/30 | 23/30 | |
| % 1st pts | 77% | 77% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/27 | 17/27 | |
| % 2nd pts | 63% | 63% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 4 | 4 | |
| Converted | 4/5 | 4/5 | |
| Converted % | 80% | 80% | |
| Conceded | 6 | 6 | |
| Saved | 5/6 | 5 | |
| Saved % | 83% | 83% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | |
| Kudermetova | |||
| R1 Parrizas-Diaz |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 2-2 ret. | ||
| Tot Set | 1 | 1 | |
| Tot Games | 4 | 4 | |
| pts | 14-16 | 14-16 | |
| Total points | 30 | 30 | |
| Winners | 6 | 6 | |
| %Winners | 43% | 43% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 4 | 4 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | |
| 1st in | 11/20 | 11/20 | |
| % 1st in | 55% | 55% | |
| 1st pts | 6/11 | 6/11 | |
| % 1st pts | 55% | 55% | |
| 2nd pts | 6/9 | 6/9 | |
| % 2nd pts | 67% | 67% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 0 | 0 | |
| Converted | 0/0 | 0/0 | |
| Converted % | 0% | 0% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 2 | |
| Saved | 2/2 | 2 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWLWWWW
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