Iga Swiatek and Jasmine Paolini will square off in the final of the Cincinnati Open for the 6^th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Monday at 6:00 pm on P&G CENTER COURT. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Iga Swiatek who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Iga Swiatek is the pick to win this match.
Iga Swiatek -> 1.196
Jasmine Paolini -> 4.85

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Prediction and head to head Iga Swiatek vs. Jasmine Paolini

This will be the 6^th time that Iga Swiatek and Jasmine Paolini fight against each other. The head to head is 5-0 for Swiatek (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they played, Swiatek won 6-1 6-3 in the semifinal in Bad Homburg back in June 2025.

Highlights Iga Swiatek vs Jasmine Paolini – Bad Homburg 27-June-2025

Iga Swiatek

Ranked no. 3, the Pole got to the final after defeating Anastasia Potapova 6-1 6-4, Marta Kostyuk w/o, Sorana Cirstea 6-4 6-3, Anna Kalinskaya 6-3 6-4 and Elena Rybakina 7-5 6-3.

In the semifinal, Swiatek had a good straight sets win against Rybakina (7-5 6-3). During the match, Swiatek scored 70 points vs Rybakina ‘s 54. The Pole was quite aggressive to blast 31 winners.

Regarding the service games, Swiatek bagged 7 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Iga Swiatek was quite efficient on serve to win 82% (31/38) of her 1st serve and 52% (11/21) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. The Pole broke Rybakina 3 times after converting 38% of her break points (3/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Pole hasn’t conceded yet a set in this tournament to conquer 57% of the points she played.

Swiatek has an impressive record in the last 10 years having won 82% of her matches (397-88). 27-7 on hard in 2025. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this event, Swiatek has an overall 189-49 win-loss record in the last years on hard.

Her best result of the current year was conquering the title at the Wimbledon where she defeated Amanda Anisimova in the final 6-0 6-0.

The Pole has a composed 48-12 win-loss record in 2025, 27-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Cincinnati

Jasmine Paolini

Ranked no. 9, Paolini got to the final after beating Maria Sakkari 7-6(2) 7-6(5), Ashlyn Krueger 7-6(2) 6-1, Barbora Krejcikova 6-1 6-2, Cori Gauff 2-6 6-4 6-3 and Veronika Kudermetova 6-3 6-7(2) 6-3.

In the semifinal, The Italian defeated Kudermetova (6-3 6-7² 6-3). During the match Paolini scored 102 points vs Kudermetova’s 83. The Italian was pretty aggressive to blast 52 winners.

About the serving games, Paolini struck 2 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Jasmine Paolini was very effective on serve to win 74% (52/70) of her 1st serve and 66% (19/29) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. The Italian was clinical in her return game without wasting any break point and break Kudermetova 3 times.

Overall Performance in this tournament

Jasmine has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points she played.

Her best result of the season was winning the title in Rome where she defeated Cori Gauff in the final 6-4 6-2.

Jasmine has an overall 33-13 win-loss record in 2025, 17-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Cincinnati

Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2023. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Swiatek	Paolini
Match played	4	5
Tot Set	8	12
Tot Games	76	119
Pts	261-194	410-347
Total Points	455	757
Winners	99	174
%Winners	38%	42%

Swiatek played 4 matches while Paolini competed in 5 matches. At the moment, Jasmine Paolini surrendered 2 sets while Iga Swiatek hasn’t conceded a set so far. Swiatek has played 4 set(s) less than Paolini (8 vs 12). Therefore, Swiatek played 43 games less than Paolini. Iga scored 99 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, The Italian managed to score 174 winners (42%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Swiatek	Paolini
Aces	14	9
Avg per match	3.5	1.8
1st in	124/216	252/384
%1st in	57%	66%
1st pts	99/124	174/252
%1st pts	80%	69%
2nd pts	50/92	72/132
%2nd pts	54%	55%

Swiatek recorded 14 aces (3.5 per match). Paolini blasted 9 aces (1.8 per match). Swiatek won 80% points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 54% of the points. On the other side, Paolini won 69% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 55% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Swiatek	Paolini
Won	15	20
Converted	15/34	20/46
% Converted	44%	43%
Conceded	13	28
Saved	8	16
% Saved	62%	57%
Times Broken	5	12

Swiatek broke her opponents 15 times with a 44% conversion rate. The Pole conceded her serve 5 times and she saved 62% of the break points that she conceded. The Italian broke her opponents 20 times with a 43% conversion rate. The Italian conceded her serve 12 times and she saved 57% of the break points that she conceded.

Swiatek
	R2 Potapova	R3 Kostyuk	R4 Cirstea	1/4 Kalinskaya	1/2 Rybakina	Total
Score	6-1 6-4	w/o	6-4 6-3	6-3 6-4	7-5 6-3
Tot Set	2	–	2	2	2	8
Tot Games	17	–	19	19	21	76
pts	61-36	–	63-55	67-49	70-54	261-194
Total points	97	–	118	116	124	455
Winners	28	–	16	24	31	99
%Winners	46%	–	25%	36%	44%	38%
SERVE
Aces	4	–	1	2	7	14
Double Faults	4	–	2	3	3	12
1st in	31/52	–	26/52	29/53	38/59	124/216
% 1st in	60%	–	50%	55%	64%	57%
1st pts	28/31	–	16/26	24/29	31/38	99/124
% 1st pts	90%	–	62%	83%	82%	80%
2nd pts	9/21	–	15/26	15/24	11/21	50/92
% 2nd pts	43%	–	58%	63%	52%	54%
Breaks
Won	4	–	5	3	3	15
Converted	4/5	–	5/10	3/11	3/8	15/34
Converted %	80%	–	50%	27%	38%	44%
Conceded	5	–	2	2	4	13
Saved	4/5	–	0/2	1/2	3/4	8
Saved %	80%	–	0%	50%	75%	41%
Times Broken	1	–	2	1	1	5

Paolini
	R2 Sakkari	R3 Krueger	R4 Krejcikova	1/4 Gauff	1/2 Kudermetova	Total
Score	7-62 7-65	7-62 6-1	6-1 6-2	2-6 6-4 6-3	6-3 6-72 6-3
Tot Set	2	2	2	3	3	12
Tot Games	26	20	15	27	31	119
pts	91-87	73-55	59-36	85-86	102-83	410-347
Total points	178	128	95	171	185	757
Winners	40	27	24	31	52	174
%Winners	44%	37%	41%	36%	51%	42%
SERVE
Aces	5	1	1	0	2	9
Double Faults	3	0	1	2	2	8
1st in	59/91	39/62	30/45	54/87	70/99	252/384
% 1st in	65%	63%	67%	62%	71%	66%
1st pts	40/59	27/39	24/30	31/54	52/70	174/252
% 1st pts	68%	69%	80%	57%	74%	69%
2nd pts	18/32	14/23	9/15	12/33	19/29	72/132
% 2nd pts	56%	61%	60%	36%	66%	55%
Breaks
Won	2	4	4	7	3	20
Converted	2/10	4/10	4/8	7/15	3/3	20/46
Converted %	20%	40%	50%	47%	100%	43%
Conceded	8	4	0	10	6	28
Saved	6/8	2/4	0/0	3/10	5/6	16
Saved %	75%	50%	–	30%	83%	48%
Times Broken	2	2	0	7	1	12

Tennis Scores in Cincinnati

• Corentin MoutetMoutet – Elias YmerYmer (6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (5-0) – H2H and prediction