Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz will play each other in the final of the Cincinnati Open for the 15^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Monday at 3:00 pm on P&G CENTER COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jannik Sinner who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Jannik Sinner is the pick to win this match.
Jannik Sinner -> 1.6
Carlos Alcaraz -> 2.4

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Prediction and head to head Jannik Sinner vs. Carlos Alcaraz

This will be the 15^th time that Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz play each other. The head to head is 9-5 for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), 4-2 on hard.

The last time that they competed against each other, Sinner won 4-6 6-4 6-4 6-4 in the final in at the Wimbledon back in July 2025.

Jannik Sinner

Currently world no. 1 Jannik got to the final after defeating Daniel Elahi Galan 6-1 6-1, Gabriel Diallo 6-2 7-6(6), Adrian Mannarino 6-4 7-6(4), Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-0 6-2 and Terence Atmane 7-6(4) 6-2.

In the semifinal, Jannik had a good straight sets win against Atmane (7-6⁴ 6-2). During the match, Sinner scored 68 points vs Atmane’s 50. Sinner was pretty aggressive to blast 32 winners.

Talking about the service games, Sinner blasted 6 aces and he was very solid in conceding no double faults. Jannik Sinner was extremely efficient on serve to win 91% (32/35) of his 1st serve and 68% (17/25) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Italian broke Atmane twice after converting 40% of his break points (2/5).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Italian hasn’t lost yet a set in this competition to win 60% of the points he played.

Sinner has a fantastic match record in the last 8 years having won 75% of his matches (377-124). 12-0 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Sinner has an overall150-46 record in the last 8 years on hard.

His best result of the current year was winning the title at the Australian Open where he beat Alexander Zverev in the final 6-3 7-6(4) 6-3 and at the Wimbledon where he beat Carlos Alcaraz in the final 4-6 6-4 6-4 6-4.

Jannik has an aggregate 31-3 win-loss record in 2025, 12-0 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Cincinnati

Carlos Alcaraz

Ranked no. 2, Carlos got to the final after beating Damir Dzumhur 6-1 2-6 6-3, Hamad Medjedovic 6-4 6-4, Luca Nardi 6-1 6-4, Andrey Rublev 6-3 4-6 7-5 and Alexander Zverev 6-4 6-3.

In the semifinal, Alcaraz had a good straight sets win against Zverev (6-4 6-3). During the match Alcaraz scored 66 points vs Zverev’s 46. Alcaraz was quite aggressive to blast 22 winners.

About the serving games, Alcaraz blasted 11 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Overall, Carlos Alcaraz was quite effective on serve to win 81% (22/27) of his 1st serve and 63% (15/24) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Alcaraz broke Zverev 4 times after converting 67% of his break points (4/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Alcaraz has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.

His best result of the year was conquering the title in Rotterdam where he overcame Alex De Minaur in the final 6-4 3-6 6-2 and in Carlo where he defeated Lorenzo Musetti in the final 3-6 6-1 6-0 and in Rome where he defeated Jannik Sinner in the final 7-6(5) 6-1 and at the French Open where he beat Jannik Sinner in the final 4-6 6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(3) 7-6(2) and in London where he beat Jiri Lehecka in the final 7-5 6-7(5) 6-2.

Carlos has an overall 53-6 win-loss record in 2025, 15-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Cincinnati

Previously, his best result was reaching the final in 2023. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Sinner	Alcaraz
Match played	5	5
Tot Set	10	12
Tot Games	93	111
Pts	345-232	380-317
Total Points	577	697
Winners	128	143
%Winners	37%	38%

Both Sinner and Alcaraz played 5 matches. At the moment, Carlos Alcaraz lost 2 sets while Jannik Sinner hasn’t conceded a set so far. Sinner has played 2 set(s) less than Alcaraz (10 vs 12). Therefore, Sinner played 18 games less than Alcaraz. Sinner scored 128 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, Alcaraz bagged 143 winners (38%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Sinner	Alcaraz
Aces	32	43
Avg per match	6.4	8.6
1st in	144/259	187/313
%1st in	56%	60%
1st pts	128/144	143/187
%1st pts	89%	76%
2nd pts	72/115	71/126
%2nd pts	63%	56%

Sinner fired 32 aces (6.4 per match). Alcaraz made 43 aces (8.6 per match). Sinner won 89% points on his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 63% of the points. On the other side, Alcaraz won 76% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Sinner	Alcaraz
Won	18	20
Converted	18/49	20/40
% Converted	37%	50%
Conceded	6	14
Saved	3	6
% Saved	50%	43%
Times Broken	3	8

Sinner broke his opponents 18 times with a 37% conversion rate. Jannik surrendered his serve 3 times and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded. The Spaniard broke his opponents 20 times with a 50% conversion rate. The Spaniard conceded his serve 8 times and he saved 43% of the break points that he conceded.

Sinner
	R2 Elahi Galan Riveros	R3 Diallo	R4 Mannarino	1/4 Auger-Aliassime	1/2 Atmane	Total
Score	6-1 6-1	6-2 7-66	6-4 7-64	6-0 6-2	7-64 6-2
Tot Set	2	2	2	2	2	10
Tot Games	14	21	23	14	21	93
pts	57-27	84-62	79-66	57-27	68-50	345-232
Total points	84	146	145	84	118	577
Winners	22	25	31	18	32	128
%Winners	39%	30%	39%	32%	47%	37%
SERVE
Aces	6	6	12	2	6	32
Double Faults	3	5	2	2	0	12
1st in	23/36	31/62	32/62	23/39	35/60	144/259
% 1st in	64%	50%	52%	59%	58%	56%
1st pts	22/23	25/31	31/32	18/23	32/35	128/144
% 1st pts	96%	81%	97%	78%	91%	89%
2nd pts	8/13	20/31	17/30	10/16	17/25	72/115
% 2nd pts	62%	65%	57%	63%	68%	63%
Breaks
Won	5	3	2	6	2	18
Converted	5/13	3/12	2/9	6/10	2/5	18/49
Converted %	38%	25%	22%	60%	40%	37%
Conceded	1	3	1	1	0	6
Saved	1/1	2/3	0/1	0/1	0/0	3
Saved %	100%	67%	0%	0%	–	33%
Times Broken	0	1	1	1	0	3

Alcaraz
	R2 Dzumhur	R3 Medjedovic	R4 Nardi	1/4 Rublev	1/2 Zverev	Total
Score	6-1 2-6 6-3	6-4 6-4	6-1 6-4	6-3 4-6 7-5	6-4 6-3
Tot Set	3	2	2	3	2	12
Tot Games	24	20	17	31	19	111
pts	83-73	74-62	65-47	92-89	66-46	380-317
Total points	156	136	112	181	112	697
Winners	30	26	25	40	22	143
%Winners	36%	35%	38%	43%	33%	38%
SERVE
Aces	7	12	2	11	11	43
Double Faults	6	3	3	4	4	20
1st in	44/73	33/57	30/46	53/86	27/51	187/313
% 1st in	60%	58%	65%	62%	53%	60%
1st pts	30/44	26/33	25/30	40/53	22/27	143/187
% 1st pts	68%	79%	83%	75%	81%	76%
2nd pts	15/29	15/24	9/16	17/33	15/24	71/126
% 2nd pts	52%	63%	56%	52%	63%	56%
Breaks
Won	5	3	4	4	4	20
Converted	5/10	3/7	4/11	4/6	4/6	20/40
Converted %	50%	43%	36%	67%	67%	50%
Conceded	3	2	2	2	5	14
Saved	0/3	1/2	1/2	0/2	4/5	6
Saved %	0%	50%	50%	0%	80%	36%
Times Broken	3	1	1	2	1	8

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Jannik SinnerSinner – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (5-9) – H2H and prediction