Mattia Bellucci and Alexander Shevchenko will play each other in the final of the Sumter Challenger for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 11:00 am on STADIUM. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Mattia Bellucci who should win in 3 sets.
Mattia Bellucci -> 1.48
Alexander Shevchenko -> 2.5
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Prediction and head to head Mattia Bellucci vs. Alexander Shevchenko
There is no head to head record between Mattia Bellucci and Alexander Shevchenko since this will be the first time that they will clash against each other in the main tour.
Mattia Bellucci
20 - 24win/loss
74
63
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24-31 | 10-13 | 3-7 | 6-6 | 5-5 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 51-33 | 31-18 | 5-2 | 9-9 | 6-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-34 | 22-19 | 2-9 | 4-3 | 5-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 66-23 | 30-4 | 25-12 | 11-7 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 39-18 | 29-10 | 5-3 | 5-4 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 74, Mattia got to the final after defeating Henrique Rocha 7-6(5) 6-4, Lukas Klein 6-4 6-2 and Jaime Faria 6-0 6-4.
In the semifinal, Mattia had a good straight sets win against Faria (6-0 6-4). During the match, Bellucci scored 65 points vs Faria’s 45. The Italian was exceptionally aggressive to blast 25 winners.
Regarding the service games, Bellucci managed to score 6 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Overall, Mattia Bellucci was quite efficient on serve to win 74% (25/34) of his 1st serve and 53% (10/19) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Mattia broke Faria 5 times after converting 38% of his break points (5/13).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Italian hasn’t dropped yet a set in this event to win 56% of the points he played.
Bellucci has a solid match record in the last 8 years having won 62% of his matches (254-158). 5-9 on hard in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, Bellucci has an overall138-71 record in the last 8 years on hard.
The Italian’s best result of the current year was getting to the semifinal in Rotterdam and the Sumter Challenger.
Bellucci has a compiled 19-24 win-loss record in 2025, 5-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Sumter Challenger
Mattia has never competed in this tournament before.
Alexander Shevchenko
27 - 28win/loss
97
45
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 32-34 | 11-12 | 19-16 | 2-4 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 22-35 | 8-13 | 6-12 | 7-7 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 45-34 | 16-15 | 19-13 | 10-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 50-33 | 2-4 | 41-23 | 7-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 49-27 | 8-4 | 33-17 | 8-6 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 102, the Kazakhstani reached the final after beating Sho Shimabukuro 6-3 6-3, Nikoloz Basilashvili 3-6 7-6(3) 4-1 ret. and Shintaro Mochizuki 4-6 6-1 6-1.
In the semifinal against Mochizuki, The Kazakhstani recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-1 6-1). During the match Shevchenko scored 92 points vs Mochizuki’s 67. Alexander was pretty aggressive to blast 27 winners.
Talking about serving, Shevchenko blasted 2 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Alexander Shevchenko lost the serve 5 times and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Shevchenko put 61% of his first serves in, winning 61% (27/44) of the points behind his 1st serve and 46% (13/28) on the 2nd serve. The Kazakhstani broke Mochizuki 9 times after converting 43% of his break points (9/21).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Shevchenko has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 58% of the points he played.
Shevchenko’s best result of the current year was getting to the semifinal in Australia,the Bratislava 1 Challenger and the Sumter Challenger.
Alexander has an overall 27-27 win-loss record in 2025, 7-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Bellucci | Shevchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 6 | 9 |
| Tot Games | 57 | 69 |
| Pts | 204-160 | 245-195 |
| Total Points | 364 | 440 |
| Winners | 93 | 81 |
| %Winners | 46% | 33% |
Both Bellucci and Shevchenko played 3 matches. At the moment, Alexander Shevchenko conceded 2 sets while Mattia Bellucci hasn’t lost a set so far. Bellucci has played 3 set(s) less than Shevchenko (6 vs 9). Therefore, Bellucci played 12 games less than Shevchenko. The Italian scored 93 winners (46% of the total points). On the other side, The Kazakhstani managed to score 81 winners (33%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Bellucci | Shevchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 13 | 10 |
| Avg per match | 4.3 | 3.3 |
| 1st in | 137/193 | 124/198 |
| %1st in | 71% | 63% |
| 1st pts | 93/137 | 81/124 |
| %1st pts | 68% | 65% |
| 2nd pts | 29/56 | 37/74 |
| %2nd pts | 52% | 50% |
Bellucci managed to score 13 aces (4.3 per match). Shevchenko fired 10 aces (3.3 per match). Bellucci won 68% points on his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 52% of the points. On the other side, Shevchenko won 65% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 50% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Bellucci | Shevchenko |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 13 | 18 |
| Converted | 13/22 | 18/41 |
| % Converted | 59% | 44% |
| Conceded | 13 | 18 |
| Saved | 8 | 8 |
| % Saved | 62% | 44% |
| Times Broken | 5 | 10 |
The Italian broke his opponents 13 times with a 59% conversion rate. Bellucci lost his serve 5 times and he saved 62% of the break points that he conceded. Shevchenko broke his opponents 18 times with a 44% conversion rate. The Kazakhstani conceded his serve 10 times and he saved 44% of the break points that he conceded.
| Bellucci | |||||
| R2 Rocha | 1/4 Klein | 1/2 Faria | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-65 6-4 | 6-4 6-2 | 6-0 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 23 | 18 | 16 | 57 | |
| pts | 81-70 | 58-45 | 65-45 | 204-160 | |
| Total points | 151 | 103 | 110 | 364 | |
| Winners | 37 | 31 | 25 | 93 | |
| %Winners | 46% | 53% | 38% | 46% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 3 | 4 | 6 | 13 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 63/84 | 40/56 | 34/53 | 137/193 | |
| % 1st in | 75% | 71% | 64% | 71% | |
| 1st pts | 37/63 | 31/40 | 25/34 | 93/137 | |
| % 1st pts | 59% | 78% | 74% | 68% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/21 | 9/16 | 10/19 | 29/56 | |
| % 2nd pts | 48% | 56% | 53% | 52% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 5 | 3 | 5 | 13 | |
| Converted | 5/6 | 3/3 | 5/13 | 13/22 | |
| Converted % | 83% | 100% | 38% | 59% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 2 | 4 | 13 | |
| Saved | 3/7 | 2/2 | 3/4 | 8 | |
| Saved % | 43% | 100% | 75% | 73% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | |
| Shevchenko | |||||
| R2 Shimabukuro | 1/4 Basilashvili | 1/2 Mochizuki | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-3 | 3-6 7-63 4-1 ret. | 4-6 6-1 6-1 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 3 | 8 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 27 | 24 | 69 | |
| pts | 65-45 | 88-83 | 92-67 | 245-195 | |
| Total points | 110 | 171 | 159 | 440 | |
| Winners | 25 | 29 | 27 | 81 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 33% | 29% | 33% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 2 | 6 | 2 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
| 1st in | 35/54 | 45/72 | 44/72 | 124/198 | |
| % 1st in | 65% | 63% | 61% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 25/35 | 29/45 | 27/44 | 81/124 | |
| % 1st pts | 71% | 64% | 61% | 65% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/19 | 12/27 | 13/28 | 37/74 | |
| % 2nd pts | 63% | 44% | 46% | 50% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 4 | 5 | 9 | 18 | |
| Converted | 4/12 | 5/8 | 9/21 | 18/41 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 63% | 43% | 44% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 7 | 9 | 18 | |
| Saved | 1/2 | 3/7 | 4/9 | 8 | |
| Saved % | 50% | 43% | 44% | 46% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 | |