Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina will square off in the semifinal of the Cincinnati Open for the 10^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 1:00 pm on P&G CENTER COURT. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Iga Swiatek who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Iga Swiatek is the pick to win this match.
Iga Swiatek -> 1.54
Elena Rybakina -> 2.48

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Prediction and head to head Iga Swiatek vs. Elena Rybakina

This will be the 10^th time that Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina play each other. The head to head is 5-4 for Swiatek (see full H2H stats), 3-2 on hard.

The last time that they played each other, Swiatek won 1-6 6-3 7-5 in the 4^th round in at the French Open back in June 2025.

Highlights Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakina – French Open 01-June-2025

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Iga Swiatek

Ranked no. 3, Iga reached the semifinal after defeating Anastasia Potapova 6-1 6-4, Marta Kostyuk w/o, Sorana Cirstea 6-4 6-3 and Anna Kalinskaya 6-3 6-4.

In the quarter, Swiatek had a good straight sets win against Kalinskaya (6-3 6-4). During the match, Swiatek scored 67 points vs Kalinskaya’s 49. Iga was very aggressive to blast 24 winners.

Regarding the service games, Swiatek bagged 2 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Iga Swiatek was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 83% (24/29) of her 1st serve and 63% (15/24) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Swiatek broke Kalinskaya 3 times after converting 27% of her break points (3/11).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Pole hasn’t surrendered yet a set in this event to win 58% of the points she played.

Swiatek has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 82% of her matches (396-88). 26-7 on hard in 2025. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this competition, Swiatek has an overall 188-49 record in the last years on hard.

Her best result of the current season was conquering the title at the Wimbledon where she beat Amanda Anisimova in the final 6-0 6-0.

Iga has an aggregate 47-12 win-loss record in 2025, 26-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Cincinnati

Elena Rybakina

Ranked no. 10, Rybakina got to the semifinal after defeating Renata Zarazua 4-6 6-0 7-5, Elise Mertens 4-6 6-3 7-5, Madison Keys 6-7(3) 6-4 6-2 and Aryna Sabalenka 6-1 6-4.

In the quarter, Elena had a good straight sets win against Sabalenka (6-1 6-4). During the match Rybakina scored 62 points vs Sabalenka’s 45. The Kazakhstani was exceptionally aggressive to blast 29 winners.

About the serving games, Rybakina recorded 11 aces and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Elena Rybakina was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 81% (29/36) of her 1st serve and 57% (16/28) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Elena broke Sabalenka 3 times after converting 60% of her break points (3/5).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Elena has conceded 3 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points she played.

Her best result of the season was winning the title in Strasbourg where she overcame Liudmila Samsonova in the final 6-1 6-7(2) 6-1.

Elena has a composed 41-15 win-loss record in 2025, 25-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Cincinnati

Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2022. See her history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Swiatek	Rybakina
Match played	3	4
Tot Set	6	11
Tot Games	55	107
Pts	191-140	381-315
Total Points	331	696
Winners	68	152
%Winners	36%	40%

Swiatek played 3 matches while Rybakina competed in 4 matches. At the moment, Elena Rybakina dropped 3 sets while Iga Swiatek hasn’t conceded a set so far. Swiatek has played 5 set(s) less than Rybakina (6 vs 11). Therefore, Swiatek played 52 games less than Rybakina. Iga scored 68 winners (36% of the total points). On the other side, Rybakina fired 152 winners (40%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Swiatek	Rybakina
Aces	7	42
Avg per match	2.3	10.5
1st in	86/157	191/360
%1st in	55%	53%
1st pts	68/86	152/191
%1st pts	79%	80%
2nd pts	39/71	89/169
%2nd pts	55%	53%

Swiatek recorded 7 aces (2.3 per match). Rybakina recorded 42 aces (10.5 per match). Swiatek won 79% points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Rybakina won 80% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 53% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Swiatek	Rybakina
Won	12	16
Converted	12/26	16/43
% Converted	46%	37%
Conceded	9	28
Saved	5	22
% Saved	56%	79%
Times Broken	4	6

Swiatek broke her opponents 12 times with a 46% conversion rate. Swiatek lost her serve 4 times and she saved 56% of the break points that she conceded. The Kazakhstani broke her opponents 16 times with a 37% conversion rate. Rybakina conceded her serve 6 times and she saved 79% of the break points that she conceded.

Swiatek
	R2 Potapova	R3 Kostyuk	R4 Cirstea	1/4 Kalinskaya	Total
Score	6-1 6-4	w/o	6-4 6-3	6-3 6-4
Tot Set	2	–	2	2	6
Tot Games	17	–	19	19	55
pts	61-36	–	63-55	67-49	191-140
Total points	97	–	118	116	331
Winners	28	–	16	24	68
%Winners	46%	–	25%	36%	36%
SERVE
Aces	4	–	1	2	7
Double Faults	4	–	2	3	9
1st in	31/52	–	26/52	29/53	86/157
% 1st in	60%	–	50%	55%	55%
1st pts	28/31	–	16/26	24/29	68/86
% 1st pts	90%	–	62%	83%	79%
2nd pts	9/21	–	15/26	15/24	39/71
% 2nd pts	43%	–	58%	63%	55%
Breaks
Won	4	–	5	3	12
Converted	4/5	–	5/10	3/11	12/26
Converted %	80%	–	50%	27%	46%
Conceded	5	–	2	2	9
Saved	4/5	–	0/2	1/2	5
Saved %	80%	–	0%	50%	33%
Times Broken	1	–	2	1	4

Rybakina
	R2 Zarazua	R3 Mertens	R4 Keys	1/4 Sabalenka	Total
Score	4-6 6-0 7-5	4-6 6-3 7-5	6-73 6-4 6-2	6-1 6-4
Tot Set	3	3	3	2	11
Tot Games	28	31	31	17	107
pts	114-95	99-86	106-89	62-45	381-315
Total points	209	185	195	107	696
Winners	40	48	35	29	152
%Winners	35%	48%	33%	47%	40%
SERVE
Aces	14	11	6	11	42
Double Faults	7	10	2	1	20
1st in	50/103	56/99	49/94	36/64	191/360
% 1st in	49%	57%	52%	56%	53%
1st pts	40/50	48/56	35/49	29/36	152/191
% 1st pts	80%	86%	71%	81%	80%
2nd pts	27/53	19/43	27/45	16/28	89/169
% 2nd pts	51%	44%	60%	57%	53%
Breaks
Won	4	3	6	3	16
Converted	4/16	3/8	6/14	3/5	16/43
Converted %	25%	38%	43%	60%	37%
Conceded	8	6	9	5	28
Saved	7/8	4/6	6/9	5/5	22
Saved %	88%	67%	67%	100%	81%
Times Broken	1	2	3	0	6

Tennis Scores in Cincinnati

• Gabriela Dabrowski/Erin RoutliffeDabrowski/Erin Routliffe – Lyudmyla Kichenok/Ellen PerezKichenok/Ellen Perez (3-6 6-3 12-10) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Corentin MoutetMoutet – Federico GaioGaio (6-0 3-6 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Elias YmerYmer – Sumit NagalNagal (6-1 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Elena RybakinaRybakina – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (4-5) – H2H and prediction
• Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (3-1) – H2H and prediction