Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev will face off in the semifinal of the Cincinnati Open for the 12^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 6:00 pm on CENTER COURT. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.44
Alexander Zverev -> 2.79

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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev

This will be the 12^th time that Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev play each other. The head to head is 6-5 for Zverev (see full H2H stats),but they are 2-2 on hard.

The last time that they squared off, Zverev won 7-6(5) 6-4 in the R in Nitto atp finals back in 2024.

Highlights Alexander Zverev vs Carlos Alcaraz – Nitto atp finals 15-November-2024

Carlos Alcaraz

Ranked no. 2, Alcaraz got to the semifinal after beating Damir Dzumhur 6-1 2-6 6-3, Hamad Medjedovic 6-4 6-4, Luca Nardi 6-1 6-4 and Andrey Rublev 6-3 4-6 7-5.

In the quarter, Carlos defeated Rublev (6-3 4-6 7-5). During the match, Alcaraz scored 92 points vs Rublev’s 89. Alcaraz was exceptionally aggressive to blast 40 winners.

Talking about the service games, Alcaraz fired 11 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Overall, Carlos Alcaraz was pretty efficient on serve to win 75% (40/53) of his 1st serve and 52% (17/33) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Carlos broke Rublev 4 times after converting 67% of his break points (4/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Spaniard has surrendered 2 set in this event to win 54% of the points he played.

Alcaraz has a fantastic win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 81% of his matches (339-82). 14-4 on hard in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Alcaraz has an overall111-29 win-loss record in the last 8 years on hard.

His best result of the season was conquering the title in Rotterdam where he defeated Alex De Minaur in the final 6-4 3-6 6-2 and in Carlo where he defeated Lorenzo Musetti in the final 3-6 6-1 6-0 and in Rome where he beat Jannik Sinner in the final 7-6(5) 6-1 and at the French Open where he beat Jannik Sinner in the final 4-6 6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(3) 7-6(2) and in London where he defeated Jiri Lehecka in the final 7-5 6-7(5) 6-2.

The Spaniard has an aggregate 52-6 win-loss record in 2025, 14-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Cincinnati

Alexander Zverev

Ranked no. 3, Zverev got to the semifinal after beating Nishesh Basavareddy 6-3 6-3, Brandon Nakashima 6-4 6-4, Karen Khachanov 7-5 3-0 ret. and Ben Shelton 6-2 6-2.

In the quarter, Zverev had a good straight sets win against Shelton (6-2 6-2). During the match Zverev scored 63 points vs Shelton’s 44. The German was exceptionally aggressive to blast 26 winners.

About the serving games, Zverev recorded 5 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Alexander Zverev was pretty efficient on serve to win 81% (26/32) of his 1st serve and 53% (9/17) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Zverev broke Shelton 4 times after converting 36% of his break points (4/11).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The German hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 56% of the points he played.

His best result of the year was winning the title in Munich where he overcame Ben Shelton in the final 6-2 6-4.

Zverev has a composed 43-15 win-loss record in 2025, 19-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Cincinnati

Previously, he won this tournament once in 2021. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Alcaraz	Zverev
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	10	9
Tot Games	92	69
Pts	314-271	236-180
Total Points	585	416
Winners	121	111
%Winners	39%	47%

Both Alcaraz and Zverev played 4 matches. At the moment, Carlos Alcaraz lost 2 sets while Alexander Zverev hasn’t dropped a set so far. Alcaraz has played 1 set more than Zverev (10 vs 9). Therefore, Alcaraz played 23 games more than Zverev. Alcaraz scored 121 winners (39% of the total points). On the other side, Zverev blasted 111 winners (47%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Alcaraz	Zverev
Aces	32	34
Avg per match	8	8.5
1st in	160/262	142/194
%1st in	61%	73%
1st pts	121/160	111/142
%1st pts	76%	78%
2nd pts	56/102	27/52
%2nd pts	55%	52%

Alcaraz blasted 32 aces (8 per match). Zverev managed to score 34 aces (8.5 per match). Alcaraz won 76% points behind his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Zverev won 78% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 52% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Alcaraz	Zverev
Won	16	13
Converted	16/34	13/26
% Converted	47%	50%
Conceded	9	6
Saved	2	5
% Saved	22%	83%
Times Broken	7	1

Carlos broke his opponents 16 times with a 47% conversion rate. Carlos surrendered his serve 7 times and he saved 22% of the break points that he conceded. The German broke his opponents 13 times with a 50% conversion rate. Zverev conceded his serve once and he saved 83% of the break points that he conceded.

Alcaraz
	R2 Dzumhur	R3 Medjedovic	R4 Nardi	1/4 Rublev	Total
Score	6-1 2-6 6-3	6-4 6-4	6-1 6-4	6-3 4-6 7-5
Tot Set	3	2	2	3	10
Tot Games	24	20	17	31	92
pts	83-73	74-62	65-47	92-89	314-271
Total points	156	136	112	181	585
Winners	30	26	25	40	121
%Winners	36%	35%	38%	43%	39%
SERVE
Aces	7	12	2	11	32
Double Faults	6	3	3	4	16
1st in	44/73	33/57	30/46	53/86	160/262
% 1st in	60%	58%	65%	62%	61%
1st pts	30/44	26/33	25/30	40/53	121/160
% 1st pts	68%	79%	83%	75%	76%
2nd pts	15/29	15/24	9/16	17/33	56/102
% 2nd pts	52%	63%	56%	52%	55%
Breaks
Won	5	3	4	4	16
Converted	5/10	3/7	4/11	4/6	16/34
Converted %	50%	43%	36%	67%	47%
Conceded	3	2	2	2	9
Saved	0/3	1/2	1/2	0/2	2
Saved %	0%	50%	50%	0%	25%
Times Broken	3	1	1	2	7

Zverev
	R2 Basavareddy	R3 Nakashima	R4 Khachanov	1/4 Shelton	Total
Score	6-3 6-3	6-4 6-4	7-5 3-0 ret.	6-2 6-2
Tot Set	2	2	2	2	8
Tot Games	18	20	15	16	69
pts	57-44	65-55	51-37	63-44	236-180
Total points	101	120	88	107	416
Winners	32	33	20	26	111
%Winners	56%	51%	39%	41%	47%
SERVE
Aces	12	12	5	5	34
Double Faults	1	2	1	2	6
1st in	41/50	44/61	25/34	32/49	142/194
% 1st in	82%	72%	74%	65%	73%
1st pts	32/41	33/44	20/25	26/32	111/142
% 1st pts	78%	75%	80%	81%	78%
2nd pts	4/9	10/17	4/9	9/17	27/52
% 2nd pts	44%	59%	44%	53%	52%
Breaks
Won	3	2	4	4	13
Converted	3/3	2/4	4/8	4/11	13/26
Converted %	100%	50%	50%	36%	50%
Conceded	0	4	1	1	6
Saved	0/0	4/4	0/1	1/1	5
Saved %	–	100%	0%	100%	50%
Times Broken	0	0	1	0	1

Tennis Scores in Cincinnati

• Nikola Mektic/Rajeev RamMektic/Rajeev Ram – Christian Harrison/Evan KingHarrison/Evan King (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
• Alexander ZverevZverev – Ben SheltonShelton (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
• Julian Cash/Lloyd GlasspoolCash/Lloyd Glasspool – Simone Bolelli/Andrea VavassoriBolelli/Andrea Vavassori (7-6⁷ 7-6⁴) – See score progression
• Joe Salisbury/Neal SkupskiSalisbury/Neal Skupski – Marcelo Arevalo/Mate PavicArevalo/Mate Pavic (6-4 6-3) – See score progression
• Lorenzo Musetti/Lorenzo SonegoMusetti/Lorenzo Sonego – Francisco Cabral/Lucas MiedlerCabral/Lucas Miedler (6-4 3-6 10-6) – See score progression
• Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Andrey RublevRublev (6-3 4-6 7-5) – See score progression
• Terence AtmaneAtmane – Holger RuneRune (6-2 6-3) – See score progression
• Jannik SinnerSinner – Felix Auger-AliassimeAuger-Aliassime (6-0 6-2) – See score progression
• Alexander ZverevZverev – Ben SheltonShelton (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
• Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Andrey RublevRublev (6-3 4-6 7-5) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Jannik SinnerSinner – Terence AtmaneAtmane (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Alexander ZverevZverev – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (6-5) – H2H and prediction