Carlos Alcaraz and Andrey Rublev will play each other in the quarter of the Cincinnati Open for the 5^th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 3:00 pm on P&G CENTER COURT. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.22
Andrey Rublev -> 4.3

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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Andrey Rublev

This will be the 5^th time that Carlos Alcaraz and Andrey Rublev face off. The head to head is 3-1 for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), but they have never competed against each other on hard.

The last time that they fought against each other, Alcaraz won 6-7(5) 6-3 6-4 6-4 in the 4^th round in at the Wimbledon back in July 2025.

Highlights Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev – Wimbledon 06-July-2025

Carlos Alcaraz

Ranked no. 2, Alcaraz reached the quarter after beating Damir Dzumhur 6-1 2-6 6-3, Hamad Medjedovic 6-4 6-4 and Luca Nardi 6-1 6-4.

In the 4^th round, The Spaniard had a good straight sets win against Nardi (6-1 6-4). During the match, Alcaraz scored 65 points vs Nardi’s 47. The Spaniard was extremely aggressive to blast 25 winners.

Talking about the service games, Alcaraz bagged 2 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Carlos Alcaraz was quite efficient on serve to win 83% (25/30) of his 1st serve and 56% (9/16) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Alcaraz broke Nardi 4 times after converting 36% of his break points (4/11).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Spaniard has lost 1 set in this event to win 55% of the points he played.

Alcaraz has a fantastic match record in the last 8 years having won 80% of his matches (338-82). 13-4 on hard in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Alcaraz has a compiled110-29 win-loss record in the last 8 years on hard.

His best result of the season was winning the title in Rotterdam where he beat Alex De Minaur in the final 6-4 3-6 6-2 and in Carlo where he overcame Lorenzo Musetti in the final 3-6 6-1 6-0 and in Rome where he beat Jannik Sinner in the final 7-6(5) 6-1 and at the French Open where he beat Jannik Sinner in the final 4-6 6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(3) 7-6(2) and in London where he defeated Jiri Lehecka in the final 7-5 6-7(5) 6-2.

The Spaniard has an aggregate 51-6 win-loss record in 2025, 13-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Cincinnati

Andrey Rublev

Ranked no. 11, Rublev reached the quarter after defeating Learner Tien 7-6(4) 6-3, Alexei Popyrin 6-7(5) 7-6(5) 7-5 and Francisco Comesana 6-2 6-3.

In the 4^th round, Andrey had a good straight sets win against Comesana (6-2 6-3). During the match Rublev scored 59 points vs Comesana’s 40. The Russian was extremely aggressive to blast 26 winners.

Talking about serving, Rublev struck 8 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Andrey Rublev lost the serve once and he saved 1 break points. Furthermore, Rublev put 68% of his first serves in, winning 81% (26/32) of the points behind his 1st serve and 40% (6/15) on the 2nd serve. The Russian broke Comesana 5 times after converting 63% of his break points (5/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Rublev has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.

His best result of the year was winning the title in Doha where he beat Jack Draper in the final 7-5 5-7 6-1.

The Russian has an overall 29-18 win-loss record in 2025, 13-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Cincinnati

Previously, his best result was reaching the final in 2021. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Alcaraz	Rublev
Match played	3	3
Tot Set	7	7
Tot Games	61	77
Pts	222-182	270-221
Total Points	404	491
Winners	81	114
%Winners	36%	42%

Both Alcaraz and Rublev played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Carlos Alcaraz conceded 1 set, while Andrey Rublev dropped 1 set. Talking about their workload, Alcaraz and Rublev have played the same amount of sets 7. However, Alcaraz played 16 games less than Rublev. The Spaniard scored 81 winners (36% of the total points). On the other side, Rublev made 114 winners (42%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Alcaraz	Rublev
Aces	21	38
Avg per match	7	12.7
1st in	107/176	141/238
%1st in	61%	59%
1st pts	81/107	114/141
%1st pts	76%	81%
2nd pts	39/69	54/97
%2nd pts	57%	56%

Alcaraz recorded 21 aces (7 per match). Rublev struck 38 aces (12.7 per match). Alcaraz won 76% points on his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 57% of the points. On the other side, Rublev won 81% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Alcaraz	Rublev
Won	12	9
Converted	12/28	9/22
% Converted	43%	41%
Conceded	7	12
Saved	2	9
% Saved	29%	75%
Times Broken	5	3

Alcaraz broke his opponents 12 times with a 43% conversion rate. The Spaniard conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 29% of the break points that he conceded. Andrey broke his opponents 9 times with a 41% conversion rate. Rublev conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded.

Alcaraz
	R2 Dzumhur	R3 Medjedovic	R4 Nardi	Total
Score	6-1 2-6 6-3	6-4 6-4	6-1 6-4
Tot Set	3	2	2	7
Tot Games	24	20	17	61
pts	83-73	74-62	65-47	222-182
Total points	156	136	112	404
Winners	30	26	25	81
%Winners	36%	35%	38%	36%
SERVE
Aces	7	12	2	21
Double Faults	6	3	3	12
1st in	44/73	33/57	30/46	107/176
% 1st in	60%	58%	65%	61%
1st pts	30/44	26/33	25/30	81/107
% 1st pts	68%	79%	83%	76%
2nd pts	15/29	15/24	9/16	39/69
% 2nd pts	52%	63%	56%	57%
Breaks
Won	5	3	4	12
Converted	5/10	3/7	4/11	12/28
Converted %	50%	43%	36%	43%
Conceded	3	2	2	7
Saved	0/3	1/2	1/2	2
Saved %	0%	50%	50%	33%
Times Broken	3	1	1	5

Rublev
	R2 Tien	R3 Popyrin	R4 Comesana	Total
Score	7-64 6-3	6-75 7-65 7-5	6-2 6-3
Tot Set	2	3	2	7
Tot Games	22	38	17	77
pts	79-62	132-119	59-40	270-221
Total points	141	251	99	491
Winners	34	54	26	114
%Winners	43%	41%	44%	42%
SERVE
Aces	12	18	8	38
Double Faults	0	9	2	11
1st in	40/67	69/124	32/47	141/238
% 1st in	60%	56%	68%	59%
1st pts	34/40	54/69	26/32	114/141
% 1st pts	85%	78%	81%	81%
2nd pts	15/27	33/55	6/15	54/97
% 2nd pts	56%	60%	40%	56%
Breaks
Won	2	2	5	9
Converted	2/6	2/8	5/8	9/22
Converted %	33%	25%	63%	41%
Conceded	4	6	2	12
Saved	3/4	5/6	1/2	9
Saved %	75%	83%	50%	69%
Times Broken	1	1	1	3

Tennis Scores in Cincinnati

• Jannik SinnerSinner – Felix Auger-AliassimeAuger-Aliassime (6-0 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Andrey RublevRublev – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (1-3) – H2H and prediction
• Terence AtmaneAtmane – Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune (0-0) – H2H and prediction