Stan Wawrinka and Rio Noguchi will play each other in the 2^nd round of the Cancun Challenger for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 6:00 pm on ESTADIO KATAN. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Stan Wawrinka who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Stan Wawrinka is the pick to win this match.
Stan Wawrinka -> 1.31
Rio Noguchi -> 3.22

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Prediction and head to head Stan Wawrinka vs. Rio Noguchi

There is no head to head record between Stan Wawrinka and Rio Noguchi since this will be the first time that they will square off in the main tour.

Stan Wawrinka

Ranked no. 152, Stan reached the 2^nd round after defeating Cleeve Harper 6-3 6-4.

In the 1^st round, The Swiss had a good straight sets win against Harper (6-3 6-4). During the match, Wawrinka scored 69 points vs Harper’s 55. The Swiss was quite aggressive to blast 25 winners.

Regarding the service games, Wawrinka struck 8 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Overall, Stan Wawrinka was exceptionally effective on serve to win 76% (25/33) of his 1st serve and 58% (19/33) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Wawrinka broke Harper 3 times after converting 38% of his break points (3/8).

Wawrinka has good win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 58% of his matches (211-152). 2-2 on hard in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Wawrinka has a compiled 83-46 match record in the last years on hard.

Stan’s best result of the year was reaching the final in the Aix En Provence Challenger.

Stan has a compiled 13-17 win-loss record in 2025, 2-2 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Cancun Challenger

Wawrinka has never competed in this tournament before.

Rio Noguchi

Ranked no. 210, Noguchi reached the 2^nd round after beating Ray Ho 3-6 7-6(2) 6-4, James Watt 6-4 6-4 and Pablo Llamas Ruiz 6-4 4-2 ret..

In the 1^st round against Llamas Ruiz, Rio had a free pass after Llamas Ruiz retired on a 6-4 4-2 . scoreline.

His best result of the season was winning the title the Nonthaburi 2 Challenger where he defeated Jie Cui in the final 7-6(9) 6-2.

The Japanese has a compiled 30-18 win-loss record in 2025, 30-18 on hard (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Wawrinka	Noguchi
Match played	1	3
Tot Set	2	8
Tot Games	19	68
Pts	69-55	219-190
Total Points	124	409
Winners	25	91
%Winners	36%	42%

Wawrinka played 1 match while Noguchi competed in 3 matches. Noguchi started his run from the qualifications while Wawrinka had a direct access to the main draw. At the moment, Rio Noguchi lost 1 set while Stan Wawrinka hasn’t dropped a set so far. Wawrinka has played 6 set(s) less than Noguchi (2 vs 8). Therefore, Wawrinka played 49 games less than Noguchi. Wawrinka scored 25 winners (36% of the total points). On the other side, Rio made 91 winners (42%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Wawrinka	Noguchi
Aces	8	4
Avg per match	8	1.3
1st in	33/66	120/199
%1st in	50%	60%
1st pts	25/33	91/120
%1st pts	76%	76%
2nd pts	19/33	49/79
%2nd pts	58%	62%

Wawrinka blasted 8 aces . Noguchi managed to score 4 aces (1.3 per match). Wawrinka won 76% points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 58% of the points. On the other side, Noguchi won 76% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 62% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Wawrinka	Noguchi
Won	3	8
Converted	3/8	8/12
% Converted	38%	67%
Conceded	8	9
Saved	7	5
% Saved	88%	56%
Times Broken	1	4

The Swiss broke his opponent 3 times with a 38% conversion rate. Stan conceded his serve once and he saved 88% of the break points that he conceded. Rio broke his opponents 8 times with a 67% conversion rate. Noguchi conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 56% of the break points that he conceded.

Wawrinka
	R1 Harper	Total
Score	6-3 6-4
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	19	19
pts	69-55	69-55
Total points	124	124
Winners	25	25
%Winners	36%	36%
SERVE
Aces	8	8
Double Faults	1	1
1st in	33/66	33/66
% 1st in	50%	50%
1st pts	25/33	25/33
% 1st pts	76%	76%
2nd pts	19/33	19/33
% 2nd pts	58%	58%
Breaks
Won	3	3
Converted	3/8	3/8
Converted %	38%	38%
Conceded	8	8
Saved	7/8	7
Saved %	88%	88%
Times Broken	1	1

Noguchi
	Q1 Ho	Q3 Watt	R1 Llamas	Total
Score	3-6 7-62 6-4	6-4 6-4	6-4 4-2 ret.
Tot Set	3	2	2	7
Tot Games	32	20	16	68
pts	100-98	62-41	57-51	219-190
Total points	198	103	108	409
Winners	47	24	20	91
%Winners	47%	39%	35%	42%
SERVE
Aces	2	0	2	4
Double Faults	2	0	0	2
1st in	65/101	27/44	28/54	120/199
% 1st in	64%	61%	52%	60%
1st pts	47/65	24/27	20/28	91/120
% 1st pts	72%	89%	71%	76%
2nd pts	18/36	16/17	15/26	49/79
% 2nd pts	50%	94%	58%	62%
Breaks
Won	3	2	3	8
Converted	3/4	2/3	3/5	8/12
Converted %	75%	67%	60%	67%
Conceded	7	0	2	9
Saved	4/7	0/0	1/2	5
Saved %	57%	–	50%	107%
Times Broken	3	0	1	4

Tennis Scores in Cancun Challenger

• Stan WawrinkaWawrinka – Cleeve HarperHarper (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Alexis GalarneauGalarneau – Hugo GastonGaston (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Alejandro TabiloTabilo – Francesco PassaroPassaro (6-1 6-4) – See score progression
• Rio NoguchiNoguchi – Pablo Llamas RuizLlamas Ruiz (6-4 4-2 ret.) – See score progression
• Thiago Agustin TiranteAgustin Tirante – Matteo GiganteGigante (6-1 4-2 ret.) – See score progression
• Dalibor SvrcinaSvrcina – Juan Alejandro HernandezAlejandro Hernandez (6-1 6-3) – See score progression
• Yannick HanfmannHanfmann – Jan-Lennard StruffStruff (3-6 7-5 6-1) – See score progression
• Alexis GalarneauGalarneau – Hugo GastonGaston (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Rio NoguchiNoguchi – Pablo Llamas RuizLlamas Ruiz (6-4 4-2 ret.) – See score progression
• Stan WawrinkaWawrinka – Cleeve HarperHarper (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Alejandro TabiloTabilo – Francesco PassaroPassaro (6-1 6-4) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Dusan LajovicLajovic – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Marco TrungellitiTrungelliti – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Daniel Elahi GalanElahi Galan – (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Andrea PellegrinoPellegrino – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Daniel AltmaierAltmaier – Yannick HanfmannHanfmann (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Alejandro TabiloTabilo – Thiago Agustin TiranteAgustin Tirante (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Alexis GalarneauGalarneau – Dalibor SvrcinaSvrcina (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Rio NoguchiNoguchi – Stan WawrinkaWawrinka (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Beibit ZhukayevZhukayev – Tristan SchoolkateSchoolkate (0-1) – H2H and prediction