Shintaro Mochizuki and Karl Poling will fight against each other in the 2^nd round of the Sumter Challenger for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 4:00 pm on STADIUM. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Shintaro Mochizuki who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Shintaro Mochizuki is the pick to win this match.
Shintaro Mochizuki -> 1.109
Karl Poling -> 5.75

Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).

To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.

Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).

At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.

 

Prediction and head to head Shintaro Mochizuki vs. Karl Poling

There is no head to head record between Shintaro Mochizuki and Karl Poling since this will be the first time that they will face off in the main tour.

Shintaro Mochizuki

Ranked no. 120 (career-high), the Japanese reached the 2^nd round after beating Alex Rybakov 7-5 7-6(2).

In the 1^st round, Shintaro had a good straight sets win against Rybakov (7-5 7-6²). During the match, Mochizuki scored 92 points vs Rybakov’s 84. Shintaro was extremely aggressive to blast 32 winners.

Talking about the service games, Mochizuki bagged 5 aces and he committed only 9 double faults. Shintaro Mochizuki lost the serve 3 times and he saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Mochizuki put 51% of his first serves in, winning 76% (32/42) of the points behind his 1st serve and 44% (18/41) on the 2nd serve. Shintaro broke Rybakov 4 times after converting 33% of his break points (4/12).

Mochizuki has a winning record in the last 8 years having won 54% of his matches (206-173). 18-11 on hard in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, Mochizuki has an overall114-96 match record in the last 8 years on hard.

His best result of the season was winning the title the Noumea Challenger where he defeated Moerani Bouzige in the final 6-1 6-3.

Shintaro has an overall 31-20 win-loss record in 2025, 18-11 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Sumter Challenger

Mochizuki has never competed in this tournament before.

Karl Poling

Ranked no. 630, the American got to the 2^nd round after defeating Reese Stalder 3-6 6-3 6-4, Martin Damm 6-2 6-3 and Daniel Evans 1-6 6-4 6-4.

In the 1^st round against Evans, Poling recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (1-6 6-4 6-4).During the match Poling scored less points (10) than Evans. In fact, the world no. 120 won 71 points vs Evans’s. That means that Poling was more focused during the important points. The American was exceptionally aggressive to blast 34 winners.

About the serving games, Poling managed to score 5 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Karl Poling lost the serve 5 times and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Poling put 72% of his first serves in, winning 57% (34/60) of the points behind his 1st serve and 43% (10/23) on the 2nd serve. Poling broke Evans 4 times after converting 67% of his break points (4/6).

Karl’s best result of the current year was reaching the final in M15 Bastad.

The American has an aggregate 22-22 win-loss record in 2025, 8-10 on hard (See FULL STATS)

.

H2H Performance in the tournament

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Mochizuki	Poling
Match played	1	2
Tot Set	2	6
Tot Games	25	55
Pts	92-84	165-165
Total Points	176	330
Winners	32	76
%Winners	35%	46%

Mochizuki played 1 match while Poling competed in 2 matches. Poling started his run from the qualifications while Mochizuki had a direct access to the main draw. At the moment, Karl Poling dropped 2 sets while Shintaro Mochizuki hasn’t lost a set so far. Mochizuki has played 4 set(s) less than Poling (2 vs 6). Therefore, Mochizuki played 30 games less than Poling. Shintaro scored 32 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, Karl blasted 76 winners (46%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Mochizuki	Poling
Aces	5	7
Avg per match	5	3.5
1st in	42/83	119/169
%1st in	51%	70%
1st pts	32/42	76/119
%1st pts	76%	64%
2nd pts	18/41	26/50
%2nd pts	44%	52%

Mochizuki blasted 5 aces . Poling blasted 7 aces (3.5 per match). Mochizuki won 76% points behind his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 44% of the points. On the other side, Poling won 64% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 52% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Mochizuki	Poling
Won	4	7
Converted	4/12	7/18
% Converted	33%	39%
Conceded	10	18
Saved	7	11
% Saved	70%	61%
Times Broken	3	7

Shintaro broke his opponent 4 times with a 33% conversion rate. The Japanese lost his serve 3 times and he saved 70% of the break points that he conceded. The American broke his opponents 7 times with a 39% conversion rate. Karl conceded his serve 7 times and he saved 61% of the break points that he conceded.

Mochizuki
	R1 Rybakov	Total
Score	7-5 7-62
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	25	25
pts	92-84	92-84
Total points	176	176
Winners	32	32
%Winners	35%	35%
SERVE
Aces	5	5
Double Faults	9	9
1st in	42/83	42/83
% 1st in	51%	51%
1st pts	32/42	32/42
% 1st pts	76%	76%
2nd pts	18/41	18/41
% 2nd pts	44%	44%
Breaks
Won	4	4
Converted	4/12	4/12
Converted %	33%	33%
Conceded	10	10
Saved	7/10	7
Saved %	70%	70%
Times Broken	3	3

Poling
	Q1 Stalder	Q3 Damm	R1 Evans	Total
Score	3-6 6-3 6-4	6-2 6-3	1-6 6-4 6-4
Tot Set	3	2	3	8
Tot Games	28	17	27	72
pts	94-84	–	71-81	165-165
Total points	178	0	152	330
Winners	42		34	76
%Winners	45%	0%	48%	46%
SERVE
Aces	2	0	5	7
Double Faults	1		3	4
1st in	59/86	/	60/83	119/169
% 1st in	69%	0%	72%	70%
1st pts	42/59	/	34/60	76/119
% 1st pts	71%	0%	57%	64%
2nd pts	16/27	/	10/23	26/50
% 2nd pts	59%	0%	43%	52%
Breaks
Won	3		4	7
Converted	3/12	/	4/6	7/18
Converted %	25%	0%	67%	39%
Conceded	10		8	18
Saved	8/10	0/	3/8	11
Saved %	80%	–	38%	118%
Times Broken	2		5	7

Tennis Scores in Sumter Challenger

• Henrique RochaRocha – Martin DammDamm (3-6 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• James McCabeMcCabe – Jacob FearnleyFearnley (3-6 7-5 ret.) – See score progression
• Murphy CassoneCassone – Darwin BlanchBlanch (7-5 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
• James Kent TrotterKent Trotter – Martin LandaluceLandaluce (6-4 6-3) – See score progression
• Karl PolingPoling – Daniel EvansEvans (1-6 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
• Mark LajalLajal – Strong KirchheimerKirchheimer (1-6 6-3 7-5) – See score progression
• Lukas KleinKlein – Ryan SeggermanSeggerman (6-4 ret.) – See score progression
• Shintaro MochizukiMochizuki – Alex RybakovRybakov (7-5 7-6²) – See score progression
• Nikoloz BasilashviliBasilashvili – Christopher EubanksEubanks (6-3 3-6 7-5) – See score progression
• Jaime FariaFaria – Hady HabibHabib (6-7⁹ 6-1 7-5) – See score progression
• Sho ShimabukuroShimabukuro – Yoshihito NishiokaNishioka (6-3 7-5) – See score progression
• Kaylan BigunBigun – Rei SakamotoSakamoto (6-3 6-1) – See score progression
• Henrique RochaRocha – Martin DammDamm (3-6 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Karl PolingPoling – Daniel EvansEvans (1-6 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
• James Kent TrotterKent Trotter – Martin LandaluceLandaluce (6-4 6-3) – See score progression
• Murphy CassoneCassone – Darwin BlanchBlanch (7-5 3-6 6-3) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Nikoloz BasilashviliBasilashvili – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Zizou BergsBergs – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Sho ShimabukuroShimabukuro – Alexander ShevchenkoShevchenko (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• James Kent TrotterKent Trotter – Filip MisolicMisolic (0-0) – H2H and prediction