Varvara Gracheva and Ella Seidel will clash against each other in the 4^th round of the Cincinnati Open for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 3:00 pm on GRANDSTAND. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Varvara Gracheva who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Varvara Gracheva is the pick to win this match.
Varvara Gracheva -> 1.78
Ella Seidel -> 2.04

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Prediction and head to head Varvara Gracheva vs. Ella Seidel

There is no head to head record between Varvara Gracheva and Ella Seidel since this will be the first time that they will square off in the main tour.

Varvara Gracheva

Ranked no. 103, Gracheva reached the 4^th round after defeating Mihaela Buzarnescu 6-0 6-2, Iva Jovic 6-3 6-4, Katie Volynets 6-4 3-6 6-3, Sofia Kenin 6-7(7) 6-3 6-3 and Karolina Muchova 6-2 6-4.

In the 3^rd round, Varvara had a good straight sets win against Muchova (6-2 6-4). During the match, Gracheva scored 66 points vs Muchova’s 50. The French player was pretty aggressive to blast 25 winners.

Talking about the service games, Gracheva struck 3 aces and she committed only 7 double faults. Overall, Varvara Gracheva was exceptionally effective on serve to win 74% (25/34) of her 1st serve and 54% (13/24) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. The French player broke Muchova 4 times after converting 50% of her break points (4/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Gracheva started her run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, she has conceded 2 set in this competition to win 56% of the points she played.

Gracheva has positive match record in the last 10 years having won 58% of her matches (288-212). 10-7 on hard in 2025. Regarding her performance on the same surface of this event, Gracheva has an overall 86-83 record in the last years on hard.

Varvara’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in the Paris and Eastbourne.

The French player has an aggregate 24-21 win-loss record in 2025, 10-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Cincinnati

Ella Seidel

Ranked no. 124, Ella got to the 4^th round after beating Varvara Lepchenko 6-2 6-1, Priscilla Hon 5-7 6-3 6-4, Polina Kudermetova 1-6 6-3 6-2, Emma Navarro 6-4 1-6 6-4 and Mccartney Kessler 6-4 2-6 7-6(6).

In the 3^rd round, The German defeated Kessler (6-4 2-6 7-6⁶).During the match Seidel scored less points (5) than Kessler. In fact, the world no. 103 won 89 points vs Kessler’s. That means that Seidel was more focused during the important points. Ella was very aggressive to blast 45 winners.

About the serving games, Seidel scored 9 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Ella Seidel lost the serve 4 times and she saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Seidel put 69% of her first serves in, winning 68% (45/66) of the points behind her 1st serve and 50% (15/30) on the 2nd serve. The German broke Kessler 3 times after converting 38% of her break points (3/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Seidel started her run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, she has conceded 4 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points she played.

Seidel’s best result of the current year was getting to the semifinal in the W75 Prague.

The German has an overall 32-21 win-loss record in 2025, 8-3 on hard (See FULL STATS)

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Previously in Cincinnati

Seidel has never competed in this tournament before.

H2H Performance in the tournament

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Gracheva	Seidel
Match played	5	5
Tot Set	12	14
Tot Games	110	128
Pts	415-330	417-390
Total Points	745	807
Winners	138	179
%Winners	33%	43%

Both Gracheva and Seidel played 5 matches. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.Both players lost a set in the event. Varvara Gracheva conceded 2 sets, while Ella Seidel dropped 4 sets. Gracheva has played 2 set(s) less than Seidel (12 vs 14). Therefore, Gracheva played 18 games less than Seidel. The French player scored 138 winners (33% of the total points). On the other side, Seidel fired 179 winners (43%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Gracheva	Seidel
Aces	33	27
Avg per match	6.6	5.4
1st in	205/356	255/429
%1st in	58%	59%
1st pts	138/205	179/255
%1st pts	67%	70%
2nd pts	86/151	88/174
%2nd pts	57%	51%

Gracheva blasted 33 aces (6.6 per match). Seidel bagged 27 aces (5.4 per match). Gracheva won 67% points behind her first serve. She extremely effective on her second serve to win 57% of the points. On the other side, Seidel won 70% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 51% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Gracheva	Seidel
Won	25	20
Converted	25/59	20/43
% Converted	42%	47%
Conceded	30	47
Saved	19	32
% Saved	63%	68%
Times Broken	11	15

Gracheva broke her opponents 25 times with a 42% conversion rate. Gracheva surrendered her serve 11 times and she saved 63% of the break points that she conceded. The German broke her opponents 20 times with a 47% conversion rate. Seidel conceded her serve 15 times and she saved 68% of the break points that she conceded.

Gracheva
	Q1 Buzarnescu	Q3 Jovic	R1 Volynets	R2 Kenin	R3 Muchova	Total
Score	6-0 6-2	6-3 6-4	6-4 3-6 6-3	6-77 6-3 6-3	6-2 6-4
Tot Set	2	2	3	3	2	12
Tot Games	14	19	28	31	18	110
pts	60-30	75-62	95-83	119-105	66-50	415-330
Total points	90	137	178	224	116	745
Winners	24	26	30	33	25	138
%Winners	40%	35%	32%	28%	38%	33%
SERVE
Aces	2	6	7	15	3	33
Double Faults	3	9	4	6	7	29
1st in	30/44	37/63	47/90	57/101	34/58	205/356
% 1st in	68%	59%	52%	56%	59%	58%
1st pts	24/30	26/37	30/47	33/57	25/34	138/205
% 1st pts	80%	70%	64%	58%	74%	67%
2nd pts	9/14	11/26	23/43	30/44	13/24	86/151
% 2nd pts	64%	42%	53%	68%	54%	57%
Breaks
Won	5	5	6	5	4	25
Converted	5/9	5/16	6/11	5/15	4/8	25/59
Converted %	56%	31%	55%	33%	50%	42%
Conceded	5	6	12	4	3	30
Saved	5/5	3/6	7/12	2/4	2/3	19
Saved %	100%	50%	58%	50%	67%	65%
Times Broken	0	3	5	2	1	11

Seidel
	Q1 Lepchenko	Q3 Hon	R1 Kudermetova	R2 Navarro	R3 Kessler	Total
Score	6-2 6-1	5-7 6-3 6-4	1-6 6-3 6-2	6-4 1-6 6-4	6-4 2-6 7-66
Tot Set	2	3	3	3	3	14
Tot Games	15	31	24	27	31	128
pts	56-29	110-101	78-80	84-86	89-94	417-390
Total points	85	211	158	170	183	807
Winners	24	48	30	32	45	179
%Winners	43%	44%	38%	38%	51%	43%
SERVE
Aces	2	10	3	3	9	27
Double Faults	1	11	8	3	4	27
1st in	28/45	63/116	53/89	45/83	66/96	255/429
% 1st in	62%	54%	60%	54%	69%	59%
1st pts	24/28	48/63	30/53	32/45	45/66	179/255
% 1st pts	86%	76%	57%	71%	68%	70%
2nd pts	11/17	23/53	21/36	18/38	15/30	88/174
% 2nd pts	65%	43%	58%	47%	50%	51%
Breaks
Won	4	5	4	4	3	20
Converted	4/5	5/11	4/9	4/10	3/8	20/43
Converted %	80%	45%	44%	40%	38%	47%
Conceded	5	15	9	10	8	47
Saved	5/5	11/15	6/9	6/10	4/8	32
Saved %	100%	73%	67%	60%	50%	70%
Times Broken	0	4	3	4	4	15

Tennis Scores in Cincinnati

• Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Sorana CirsteaCirstea (6-4 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Jessica Bouzas ManeiroBouzas Maneiro (6-1 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Elena RybakinaRybakina – Madison KeysKeys (6-7³ 6-4 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova – Anna KalinskayaKalinskaya (6-0) – H2H and prediction
• Veronika KudermetovaKudermetova – Magda LinetteLinette (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Jasmine PaoliniPaolini – Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikova (0-2) – H2H and prediction
• Lucia BronzettiBronzetti – Cori GauffGauff (0-2) – H2H and prediction
• Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Elena RybakinaRybakina (7-4) – H2H and prediction