Madison Keys and Elena Rybakina will fight against each other in the 4th round of the Cincinnati Open for the 6th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Wednesday at 5:00 pm on GRANDSTAND. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Elena Rybakina who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Elena Rybakina is the pick to win this match.
Elena Rybakina -> 1.73
Madison Keys -> 2.11

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Prediction and head to head Madison Keys vs. Elena Rybakina

This will be the 6th time that Madison Keys and Elena Rybakina clash against each other. The head to head is 3-2 for Keys (see full H2H stats), 2-1 on hard.

The last time that they squared off, Keys won 6-3 1-6 6-3 in the 4th round in at the Australian Open back in January 2025.

Highlights Madison Keys vs Elena Rybakina – Australian Open 20-January-2025

Madison Keys

Madison Keys

37 - 12win/loss

Hard
24-5
I Hard
0-0
Clay
9-4
Grass
4-3
Rank
7
High
5
LLLLWWLWWW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 37-15 24-6 9-4 0-2 4-3 0-0
2024 24-12 7-6 13-4 0-0 4-2 0-0
2023 33-15 19-9 5-3 0-2 9-1 0-0
2022 30-20 25-12 4-4 0-3 1-1 0-0
2021 11-15 3-9 3-4 0-0 5-2 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 6, Keys got to the 4th round after defeating Eva Lys 1-6 6-3 7-6(1) and Aoi Ito 6-4 6-0.

In the 3rd round, Madison had a good straight sets win against Ito (6-4 6-0). During the match, Keys scored 63 points vs Ito’s 35. Madison was quite aggressive to blast 23 winners.

Regarding the service games, Keys scored just 1 ace and she was pretty solid in conceding no double faults. Madison Keys lost the serve twice and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Keys put 77% of her first serves in, winning 70% (23/33) of the points behind her 1st serve and 60% (6/10) on the 2nd serve. Keys broke Ito 6 times after converting 55% of her break points (6/11).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Madison has conceded 1 set in this event to win 55% of the points she played.

Keys has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 66% of her matches (264-134). 24-4 on hard in 2025. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this event, Keys has an overall 157-77 win-loss record in the last years on hard.

Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Adelaide where she beat Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 4-6 6-1 and at the Australian Open where she beat Aryna Sabalenka in the final 6-3 2-6 7-5.

Madison has a compiled 37-11 win-loss record in 2025, 24-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Cincinnati

Cincinnati
Keys's Record

Elena Rybakina

Elena Rybakina

40 - 15win/loss

Hard
24-9
I Hard
2-0
Clay
9-3
Grass
5-3
Rank
5
High
3
WWWWWWWWWW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 59-19 37-13 9-3 8-0 5-3 0-0
2024 43-11 23-5 12-2 2-2 6-2 0-0
2023 47-15 31-11 11-2 0-0 5-2 0-0
2022 40-21 18-12 9-5 5-2 8-2 0-0
2021 33-23 18-14 6-4 2-2 7-3 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 10, Elena got to the 4th round after beating Renata Zarazua 4-6 6-0 7-5 and Elise Mertens 4-6 6-3 7-5.

In the 3rd round against Mertens, Rybakina recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-3 7-5). During the match Rybakina scored 99 points vs Mertens’s 86. Rybakina was pretty aggressive to blast 48 winners.

About the serving games, Rybakina made 11 aces and she was not very steady on her 2nd serve to score 10 double faults. Elena Rybakina lost the serve twice and she saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Rybakina put 57% of her first serves in, winning 86% (48/56) of the points behind her 1st serve and 44% (19/43) on the 2nd serve. Elena broke Mertens 3 times after converting 38% of her break points (3/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Elena has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points she played.

Her best result of the current year was winning the title in Strasbourg where she overcame Liudmila Samsonova in the final 6-1 6-7(2) 6-1.

Elena has an overall 39-15 win-loss record in 2025, 23-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Cincinnati

Previously, her best result was reaching the quarter in 2022. See her history.

Cincinnati
Rybakina's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

M.Keys
E.Rybakina
3h:14
3h:14
Time on court​
4h:33
4h:33
1h:02
1h:02
Last match​
!
2h:12
2h:12
2
2
Match played
2
2
45
45
Games Played​
59
59
5
5
Set played​​
6
6
162
162
Total points​
213
213
81
81
Avg point​
106.5
106.5
60
60
Winners
88
88
30
30
Avg Winners​
44
44
37%
37%
Ratio winners
41%
41%
-- Serve --
13
13
Aces
25
25
6.5
6.5
Avg Aces
!
12.5
12.5
6
6
Double Faults
17
17
3
3
Avg Double Faults
!
8.5
8.5
60/88
60/88
1st won total​
88/106
88/106
68%
68%
1st won %
!
83%
83%
21/46
21/46
2nd won total​
46/96
46/96
46%
46%
2nd won %
48%
48%
-- Break Points --
10/24
10/24
BP won
7/24
7/24
5/12
5/12
Avg BP won
3.5/12
3.5/12
42%
42%
Won
!
29%
29%
16
16
Conceded
14
14
8
8
Avg Conceded
7
7
7
7
Broken
3
3
3.5
3.5
Avg Broken
1.5
1.5
9
9
Saved
11
11
See Allstats

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Keys Rybakina
Match played 2 2
Tot Set 5 6
Tot Games 45 59
Pts 162-131 213-181
Total Points 293 394
Winners 60 88
%Winners 37% 41%

Both Keys and Rybakina played 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Madison Keys dropped 1 set, while Elena Rybakina dropped 2 sets. Keys has played 1 set(s) less than Rybakina (5 vs 6). Therefore, Keys played 14 games less than Rybakina. The American scored 60 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, Elena managed to score 88 winners (41%).

Serve Performance

Serve Keys Rybakina
Aces 13 25
Avg per match 6.5 12.5
1st in 88/134 106/202
%1st in 66% 52%
1st pts 60/88 88/106
%1st pts 68% 83%
2nd pts 21/46 46/96
%2nd pts 46% 48%

Keys bagged 13 aces (6.5 per match). Rybakina fired 25 aces (12.5 per match). Keys won 68% points on her first serve. She extremely effective on her second serve to win 46% of the points. On the other side, Rybakina won 83% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 48% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Keys Rybakina
Won 10 7
Converted 10/24 7/24
% Converted 42% 29%
Conceded 16 14
Saved 9 11
% Saved 56% 79%
Times Broken 7 3

Keys broke her opponents 10 times with a 42% conversion rate. Keys lost her serve 7 times and she saved 56% of the break points that she conceded. Elena broke her opponents 7 times with a 29% conversion rate. Rybakina conceded her serve 3 times and she saved 79% of the break points that she conceded.

Keys
R2
Lys		 R3
Ito		 Total
Score 1-6 6-3 7-61 6-4 6-0
Tot Set 3 2 5
Tot Games 29 16 45
pts 99-96 63-35 162-131
Total points 195 98 293
Winners 37 23 60
%Winners 37% 37% 37%
SERVE
Aces 12 1 13
Double Faults 6 0 6
1st in 55/91 33/43 88/134
% 1st in 60% 77% 66%
1st pts 37/55 23/33 60/88
% 1st pts 67% 70% 68%
2nd pts 15/36 6/10 21/46
% 2nd pts 42% 60% 46%
Breaks
Won 4 6 10
Converted 4/13 6/11 10/24
Converted % 31% 55% 42%
Conceded 12 4 16
Saved 7/12 2/4 9
Saved % 58% 50% 54%
Times Broken 5 2 7
Rybakina
R2
Zarazua		 R3
Mertens		 Total
Score 4-6 6-0 7-5 4-6 6-3 7-5
Tot Set 3 3 6
Tot Games 28 31 59
pts 114-95 99-86 213-181
Total points 209 185 394
Winners 40 48 88
%Winners 35% 48% 41%
SERVE
Aces 14 11 25
Double Faults 7 10 17
1st in 50/103 56/99 106/202
% 1st in 49% 57% 52%
1st pts 40/50 48/56 88/106
% 1st pts 80% 86% 83%
2nd pts 27/53 19/43 46/96
% 2nd pts 51% 44% 48%
Breaks
Won 4 3 7
Converted 4/16 3/8 7/24
Converted % 25% 38% 29%
Conceded 8 6 14
Saved 7/8 4/6 11
Saved % 88% 67% 78%
Times Broken 1 2 3

Tennis Scores in Cincinnati

Upcoming matches in the draw

Keys
More Stats
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Rybakina

Click for FULL STATS