Carlos Alcaraz and Luca Nardi will face off in the 4th round of the Cincinnati Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Wednesday at 7:00 pm on P&G CENTER COURT. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.02
Luca Nardi -> 13.75

Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).

To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.

Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).

At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.

 

Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Luca Nardi

This will be the 2nd time that Carlos Alcaraz and Luca Nardi fight against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they played each other, Alcaraz won 6-1 4-6 6-3 in the 2nd round in Doha back in February 2025.

Highlights Carlos Alcaraz vs Luca Nardi – Doha 19-February-2025

Carlos Alcaraz

Carlos Alcaraz

51 - 6win/loss

Hard
13-4
I Hard
5-0
Clay
22-1
Grass
11-1
Rank
1
High
1
LWWWWLWWWW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 71-9 28-4 22-1 10-3 11-1 0-0
2024 54-13 22-5 17-4 7-3 8-1 0-0
2023 65-12 26-6 25-3 2-3 12-0 0-0
2022 57-13 21-4 27-4 6-4 3-1 0-0
2021 48-19 15-8 22-7 10-3 1-1 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 2, Carlos reached the 4th round after defeating Damir Dzumhur 6-1 2-6 6-3 and Hamad Medjedovic 6-4 6-4.

In the 3rd round, Alcaraz had a good straight sets win against Medjedovic (6-4 6-4). During the match, Alcaraz scored 74 points vs Medjedovic’s 62. Carlos was extremely aggressive to blast 26 winners.

Talking about the service games, Alcaraz made 12 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Carlos Alcaraz was pretty effective on serve to win 79% (26/33) of his 1st serve and 63% (15/24) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Carlos broke Medjedovic 3 times after converting 43% of his break points (3/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Carlos has surrendered 1 set in this event to conquer 54% of the points he played.

Alcaraz has a fantastic match record in the last 8 years having won 80% of his matches (337-82). 12-4 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Alcaraz has a compiled109-29 record in the last 8 years on hard.

His best result of the current year was winning the title in Rotterdam where he defeated Alex De Minaur in the final 6-4 3-6 6-2 and in Carlo where he beat Lorenzo Musetti in the final 3-6 6-1 6-0 and in Rome where he overcame Jannik Sinner in the final 7-6(5) 6-1 and at the French Open where he overcame Jannik Sinner in the final 4-6 6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(3) 7-6(2) and in London where he overcame Jiri Lehecka in the final 7-5 6-7(5) 6-2.

Carlos has a compiled 50-6 win-loss record in 2025, 12-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Cincinnati

Cincinnati
Alcaraz's Record

Luca Nardi

Luca Nardi

27 - 24win/loss

Hard
13-10
I Hard
6-3
Clay
8-9
Grass
0-2
Rank
87
High
67
LWWLLLWLLL
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 30-30 14-13 8-9 8-6 0-2 0-0
2024 32-27 14-14 8-5 9-4 1-4 0-0
2023 41-36 20-10 8-13 12-12 1-1 0-0
2022 33-20 5-2 11-10 17-8 0-0 0-0
2021 33-24 3-3 26-13 4-8 0-0 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 98, the Italian got to the 4th round after beating Aidan Mayo 6-3 6-2, Alexander Blockx 6-4 6-3, Thiago Agustin Tirante 6-4 7-6(5), Denis Shapovalov 6-7(5) 6-3 6-4 and Jakub Mensik 6-2 2-1 ret..

In the 3rd round against Mensik, Nardi had a free pass after Mensik retired on a 6-2 2-1 . scoreline.

The Italian’s best result of the season was getting to the final in the Koblenz Challenger.

Luca has an aggregate 27-23 win-loss record in 2025, 13-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Cincinnati

Nardi has never competed in this tournament before.

Cincinnati
Nardi's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

C.Alcaraz
L.Nardi
3h:16
3h:16
Time on court​
!
7h:58
7h:58
1h:35
1h:35
Last match​
!
0h:42
0h:42
2
2
Match played
!
5
5
44
44
Games Played​
102
102
5
5
Set played​​
12
12
157
157
Total points​
347
347
78.5
78.5
Avg point​
69.4
69.4
56
56
Winners
147
147
28
28
Avg Winners​
29.4
29.4
36%
36%
Ratio winners
42%
42%
-- Serve --
19
19
Aces
15
15
9.5
9.5
Avg Aces
3
3
9
9
Double Faults
17
17
4.5
4.5
Avg Double Faults
3.4
3.4
56/77
56/77
1st won total​
147/206
147/206
!
73%
73%
1st won %
!
71%
71%
30/53
30/53
2nd won total​
70/127
70/127
57%
57%
2nd won %
55%
55%
-- Break Points --
8/17
8/17
BP won
14/40
14/40
4/8.5
4/8.5
Avg BP won
2.8/8
2.8/8
47%
47%
Won
35%
35%
5
5
Conceded
27
27
2.5
2.5
Avg Conceded
5.4
5.4
4
4
Broken
8
8
2
2
Avg Broken
1.6
1.6
1
1
Saved
19
19
See Allstats

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Alcaraz Nardi
Match played 2 4
Tot Set 5 10
Tot Games 44 83
Pts 157-135 297-242
Total Points 292 539
Winners 56 125
%Winners 36% 42%

Alcaraz played 2 matches while Nardi competed in 4 matches. Nardi started his run from the qualifications while Alcaraz had a direct access to the main draw. Both players lost a set in the event. Carlos Alcaraz conceded 1 set, while Luca Nardi conceded 1 set. Alcaraz has played 5 set(s) less than Nardi (5 vs 10). Therefore, Alcaraz played 39 games less than Nardi. Alcaraz scored 56 winners (36% of the total points). On the other side, The Italian made 125 winners (42%).

Serve Performance

Serve Alcaraz Nardi
Aces 19 15
Avg per match 9.5 3.8
1st in 77/130 170/268
%1st in 59% 63%
1st pts 56/77 125/170
%1st pts 73% 74%
2nd pts 30/53 55/98
%2nd pts 57% 56%

Alcaraz scored 19 aces (9.5 per match). Nardi recorded 15 aces (3.8 per match). Alcaraz won 73% points on his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 57% of the points. On the other side, Nardi won 74% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Alcaraz Nardi
Won 8 14
Converted 8/17 14/38
% Converted 47% 37%
Conceded 5 17
Saved 1 12
% Saved 20% 71%
Times Broken 4 5

Carlos broke his opponents 8 times with a 47% conversion rate. Alcaraz lost his serve 4 times and he saved 20% of the break points that he conceded. Luca broke his opponents 14 times with a 37% conversion rate. The Italian conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 71% of the break points that he conceded.

Alcaraz
R2
Dzumhur		 R3
Medjedovic		 Total
Score 6-1 2-6 6-3 6-4 6-4
Tot Set 3 2 5
Tot Games 24 20 44
pts 83-73 74-62 157-135
Total points 156 136 292
Winners 30 26 56
%Winners 36% 35% 36%
SERVE
Aces 7 12 19
Double Faults 6 3 9
1st in 44/73 33/57 77/130
% 1st in 60% 58% 59%
1st pts 30/44 26/33 56/77
% 1st pts 68% 79% 73%
2nd pts 15/29 15/24 30/53
% 2nd pts 52% 63% 57%
Breaks
Won 5 3 8
Converted 5/10 3/7 8/17
Converted % 50% 43% 47%
Conceded 3 2 5
Saved 0/3 1/2 1
Saved % 0% 50% 25%
Times Broken 3 1 4
Nardi
Q1
Mayo		 Q3
Blockx		 R1
Agustin		 R2
Shapovalov		 R3
Mensik		 Total
Score 6-3 6-2 6-4 6-3 6-4 7-65 6-75 6-3 6-4 6-2 2-1 ret.
Tot Set 2 2 2 3 2 11
Tot Games 17 19 23 32 11 102
pts 71-54 – 79-68 108-96 39-24 297-242
Total points 125 0 147 204 63 539
Winners 33 32 48 12 125
%Winners 46% 0% 41% 44% 31% 42%
SERVE
Aces 5 0 4 3 3 15
Double Faults 3 6 3 1 13
1st in 44/64 / 46/72 64/101 16/31 170/268
% 1st in 69% 0% 64% 63% 52% 63%
1st pts 33/44 / 32/46 48/64 12/16 125/170
% 1st pts 75% 0% 70% 75% 75% 74%
2nd pts 8/20 / 15/26 21/37 11/15 55/98
% 2nd pts 40% 0% 58% 57% 73% 56%
Breaks
Won 4 4 3 3 14
Converted 4/12 / 4/10 3/10 3/6 14/38
Converted % 33% 0% 40% 30% 50% 37%
Conceded 4 5 6 2 17
Saved 3/4 0/ 2/5 5/6 2/2 12
Saved % 75% – 40% 83% 100% 149%
Times Broken 1 3 1 0 5

Tennis Scores in Cincinnati

Upcoming matches in the draw

Alcaraz
More Stats
Click here
Nardi

Click for FULL STATS