Rio Noguchi and James Watt will square off in the qualifications of the Cancun Challenger for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Tuesday at 3:00 pm on CANCHA 1. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Rio Noguchi who should win in 2 sets.
Rio Noguchi -> 1.192
James Watt -> 4.25
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Prediction and head to head Rio Noguchi vs. James Watt
This will be the 2nd time that Rio Noguchi and James Watt clash against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Noguchi (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.
The last time that they locked horns, Noguchi won 6-2 6-2 in the 1st round in M25 Cairns back in 2024.
Rio Noguchi
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 38-30 | 38-30 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 41-31 | 36-22 | 1-4 | 0-2 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 19-31 | 12-18 | 2-7 | 2-2 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 54-22 | 41-10 | 9-9 | 0-1 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 25-26 | 18-18 | 7-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 210, Noguchi got to the qualifications after beating Ray Ho 3-6 7-6(2) 6-4.
In the qualifications against Ho, Noguchi recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 7-62 6-4). During the match, Noguchi scored 100 points vs Ho’s 98. The Japanese was very aggressive to blast 47 winners.
Regarding the service games, Noguchi scored 2 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Rio Noguchi lost the serve 3 times and he saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Noguchi put 64% of his first serves in, winning 72% (47/65) of the points behind his 1st serve and 50% (18/36) on the 2nd serve. Noguchi broke Ho 3 times after converting 75% of his break points (3/4).
Noguchi has good record in the last 10 years having won 59% of his matches (357-246). 28-18 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Noguchi has a composed 252-158 match record in the last years on hard.
His best result of the season was winning the title the Nonthaburi 2 Challenger where he beat Jie Cui in the final 7-6(9) 6-2.
The Japanese has an aggregate 28-18 win-loss record in 2025, 28-18 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Cancun Challenger
Noguchi has never competed in this tournament before.
James Watt
13 - 16win/loss
691
569
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16-20 | 9-13 | 4-3 | 0-0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 32-21 | 22-19 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 10-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 6-12 | 6-12 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 4-2 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 589, James got to the qualifications after defeating Blake Bayldon 6-4 6-4.
In the qualifications, Watt had a good straight sets win against Bayldon (6-4 6-4). During the match Watt scored 70 points vs Bayldon’s 52. The Kiwi was pretty aggressive to blast 35 winners.
About the serving games, Watt blasted 11 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. James Watt was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 83% (35/42) of his 1st serve and 67% (10/15) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Kiwi broke Bayldon twice after converting 29% of his break points (2/7).
The Kiwi has an aggregate 13-15 win-loss record in 2025, 6-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Noguchi | Watt |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 |
| Tot Games | 32 | 20 |
| Pts | 100-98 | 70-52 |
| Total Points | 198 | 122 |
| Winners | 47 | 35 |
| %Winners | 47% | 50% |
Both Noguchi and Watt played 1 match. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.At the moment, Rio Noguchi lost 1 set while James Watt hasn’t conceded a set so far. Noguchi has played 1 set more than Watt (3 vs 2). Therefore, Noguchi played 12 games more than Watt. The Japanese scored 47 winners (47% of the total points). On the other side, James blasted 35 winners (50%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Noguchi | Watt |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 2 | 11 |
| Avg per match | 2 | 11 |
| 1st in | 65/101 | 42/57 |
| %1st in | 64% | 74% |
| 1st pts | 47/65 | 35/42 |
| %1st pts | 72% | 83% |
| 2nd pts | 18/36 | 10/15 |
| %2nd pts | 50% | 67% |
Noguchi scored 2 aces . Watt struck 11 aces . Noguchi won 72% points on his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 50% of the points. On the other side, Watt won 83% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 67% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Noguchi | Watt |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 3 | 2 |
| Converted | 3/4 | 2/7 |
| % Converted | 75% | 29% |
| Conceded | 7 | 2 |
| Saved | 4 | 2 |
| % Saved | 57% | 100% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 0 |
Rio broke his opponent 3 times with a 75% conversion rate. The Japanese lost his serve 3 times and he saved 57% of the break points that he conceded. Watt broke his opponent twice with a 29% conversion rate. James was rock solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 2 break points.
| Noguchi | |||
| Q1 Ho | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 3-6 7-62 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 32 | 32 | |
| pts | 100-98 | 100-98 | |
| Total points | 198 | 198 | |
| Winners | 47 | 47 | |
| %Winners | 47% | 47% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 2 | 2 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 65/101 | 65/101 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 64% | |
| 1st pts | 47/65 | 47/65 | |
| % 1st pts | 72% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/36 | 18/36 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 50% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 3 | 3 | |
| Converted | 3/4 | 3/4 | |
| Converted % | 75% | 75% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 7 | |
| Saved | 4/7 | 4 | |
| Saved % | 57% | 57% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 3 | |
| Watt | |||
| Q1 Bayldon | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 20 | |
| pts | 70-52 | 70-52 | |
| Total points | 122 | 122 | |
| Winners | 35 | 35 | |
| %Winners | 50% | 50% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 11 | 11 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 42/57 | 42/57 | |
| % 1st in | 74% | 74% | |
| 1st pts | 35/42 | 35/42 | |
| % 1st pts | 83% | 83% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/15 | 10/15 | |
| % 2nd pts | 67% | 67% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 2 | 2 | |
| Converted | 2/7 | 2/7 | |
| Converted % | 29% | 29% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 2 | |
| Saved | 2/2 | 2 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
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