Karolina Muchova and Varvara Gracheva will face off in the 3rd round of the Cincinnati Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Tuesday at 4:00 pm on COURT 3. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Karolina Muchova who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Karolina Muchova is the pick to win this match.
Karolina Muchova -> 1.31
Varvara Gracheva -> 3.45

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Prediction and head to head Karolina Muchova vs. Varvara Gracheva

There is no head to head record between Karolina Muchova and Varvara Gracheva since this will be the first time that they will square off in the main tour.

Karolina Muchova

Karolina Muchova

16 - 11win/loss

Hard
13-7
I Hard
2-1
Clay
0-1
Grass
1-2
Rank
19
High
8
LWWLWLWLWW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 26-17 23-13 0-1 2-1 1-2 0-0
2024 21-7 15-4 4-2 0-0 2-1 0-0
2023 38-13 28-9 10-3 0-0 0-1 0-0
2022 11-12 3-2 3-3 5-5 0-2 0-0
2021 19-9 10-4 5-3 0-0 4-2 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 14, the Czech got to the 3rd round after beating Caroline Garcia 7-6(3) 7-6(0).

In the 2nd round, Muchova had a good straight sets win against Garcia (7-63 7-60). During the match, Muchova scored 91 points vs Garcia’s 77. Karolina was very aggressive to blast 31 winners.

Talking about the service games, Muchova blasted 7 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Overall, Karolina Muchova was exceptionally effective on serve to win 72% (31/43) of her 1st serve and 66% (19/29) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve twice. Muchova broke Garcia twice after converting 29% of her break points (2/7).

Muchova has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 67% of her matches (242-119). 13-7 on hard in 2025. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this competition, Muchova has a composed 125-52 win-loss record in the last years on hard.

The Czech’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in Australia, Linz and Dubai.

Karolina has an overall 16-11 win-loss record in 2025, 13-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Cincinnati

Cincinnati
Muchova's Record

Varvara Gracheva

Varvara Gracheva

23 - 21win/loss

Hard
9-7
I Hard
1-3
Clay
9-8
Grass
4-3
Rank
80
High
39
LWWWLWWLWW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 34-28 20-14 9-8 1-3 4-3 0-0
2024 29-28 13-15 15-10 0-1 1-2 0-0
2023 36-30 23-18 7-6 3-3 3-3 0-0
2022 29-32 7-11 12-14 10-7 0-0 0-0
2021 27-31 11-10 7-10 9-9 0-2 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 103, the French player reached the 3rd round after beating Mihaela Buzarnescu 6-0 6-2, Iva Jovic 6-3 6-4, Katie Volynets 6-4 3-6 6-3 and Sofia Kenin 6-7(7) 6-3 6-3.

In the 2nd round against Kenin, Varvara recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-77 6-3 6-3). During the match Gracheva scored 119 points vs Kenin’s 105. Gracheva was very aggressive to blast 33 winners.

Talking about serving, Gracheva managed to score 15 aces and she committed only 6 double faults. Varvara Gracheva lost the serve twice and she saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Gracheva put 56% of her first serves in, winning 58% (33/57) of the points behind her 1st serve and 68% (30/44) on the 2nd serve. Varvara broke Kenin 5 times after converting 33% of her break points (5/15).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The French player started her run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, she has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points she played.

The French player best result of the season was getting to the semifinal in the Paris and Eastbourne.

Gracheva has an aggregate 23-21 win-loss record in 2025, 9-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Cincinnati

Previously, her best result was reaching the 2nd round in 2023 and 2024. See her history

.
Cincinnati
Gracheva's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

K.Muchova
V.Gracheva
2h:06
2h:06
Time on court​
!
7h:09
7h:09
!
2h:06
2h:06
Last match​
!
2h:26
2h:26
1
1
Match played
!
4
4
26
26
Games Played​
92
92
2
2
Set played​​
10
10
91
91
Total points​
349
349
91
91
Avg point​
87.3
87.3
31
31
Winners
113
113
31
31
Avg Winners​
28.3
28.3
34%
34%
Ratio winners
32%
32%
-- Serve --
7
7
Aces
30
30
7
7
Avg Aces
7.5
7.5
2
2
Double Faults
22
22
2
2
Avg Double Faults
!
5.5
5.5
31/43
31/43
1st won total​
113/171
113/171
!
72%
72%
1st won %
66%
66%
19/29
19/29
2nd won total​
73/127
73/127
!
66%
66%
2nd won %
57%
57%
-- Break Points --
2/7
2/7
BP won
21/51
21/51
2/7
2/7
Avg BP won
5.3/12.8
5.3/12.8
!
29%
29%
Won
41%
41%
2
2
Conceded
27
27
2
2
Avg Conceded
6.8
6.8
2
2
Broken
10
10
2
2
Avg Broken
2.5
2.5
0
0
Saved
17
17
See Allstats

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Muchova Gracheva
Match played 1 4
Tot Set 2 10
Tot Games 26 92
Pts 91-77 349-280
Total Points 168 629
Winners 31 113
%Winners 34% 32%

Muchova played 1 match while Gracheva competed in 4 matches. Gracheva started her run from the qualifications while Muchova had a direct access to the main draw. At the moment, Varvara Gracheva surrendered 2 sets while Karolina Muchova hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Muchova has played 8 set(s) less than Gracheva (2 vs 10). Therefore, Muchova played 66 games less than Gracheva. Karolina scored 31 winners (34% of the total points). On the other side, The French player made 113 winners (32%).

Serve Performance

Serve Muchova Gracheva
Aces 7 30
Avg per match 7 7.5
1st in 43/72 171/298
%1st in 60% 57%
1st pts 31/43 113/171
%1st pts 72% 66%
2nd pts 19/29 73/127
%2nd pts 66% 57%

Muchova recorded 7 aces . Gracheva managed to score 30 aces (7.5 per match). Muchova won 72% points behind her first serve. She very solid her second serve to win 66% of the points. On the other side, Gracheva won 66% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 57% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Muchova Gracheva
Won 2 21
Converted 2/7 21/51
% Converted 29% 41%
Conceded 2 27
Saved 0 17
% Saved 0% 63%
Times Broken 2 10

The Czech broke her opponent twice with a 29% conversion rate. The Czech lost her serve twice and she saved 0% of the break points that she conceded. Gracheva broke her opponents 21 times with a 41% conversion rate. Varvara conceded her serve 10 times and she saved 63% of the break points that she conceded.

Muchova
R2
Garcia		 Total
Score 7-63 7-60
Tot Set 2 2
Tot Games 26 26
pts 91-77 91-77
Total points 168 168
Winners 31 31
%Winners 34% 34%
SERVE
Aces 7 7
Double Faults 2 2
1st in 43/72 43/72
% 1st in 60% 60%
1st pts 31/43 31/43
% 1st pts 72% 72%
2nd pts 19/29 19/29
% 2nd pts 66% 66%
Breaks
Won 2 2
Converted 2/7 2/7
Converted % 29% 29%
Conceded 2 2
Saved 0/2 0
Saved % 0% 0%
Times Broken 2 2
Gracheva
Q1
Buzarnescu		 Q3
Jovic		 R1
Volynets		 R2
Kenin		 Total
Score 6-0 6-2 6-3 6-4 6-4 3-6 6-3 6-77 6-3 6-3
Tot Set 2 2 3 3 10
Tot Games 14 19 28 31 92
pts 60-30 75-62 95-83 119-105 349-280
Total points 90 137 178 224 629
Winners 24 26 30 33 113
%Winners 40% 35% 32% 28% 32%
SERVE
Aces 2 6 7 15 30
Double Faults 3 9 4 6 22
1st in 30/44 37/63 47/90 57/101 171/298
% 1st in 68% 59% 52% 56% 57%
1st pts 24/30 26/37 30/47 33/57 113/171
% 1st pts 80% 70% 64% 58% 66%
2nd pts 9/14 11/26 23/43 30/44 73/127
% 2nd pts 64% 42% 53% 68% 57%
Breaks
Won 5 5 6 5 21
Converted 5/9 5/16 6/11 5/15 21/51
Converted % 56% 31% 55% 33% 41%
Conceded 5 6 12 4 27
Saved 5/5 3/6 7/12 2/4 17
Saved % 100% 50% 58% 50% 258%
Times Broken 0 3 5 2 10

Tennis Scores in Cincinnati

Upcoming matches in the draw

Muchova
More Stats
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Gracheva

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