Jakub Mensik and Luca Nardi will clash against each other in the 3rd round of the Cincinnati Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Tuesday at 1:30 pm on COURT 3. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Jakub Mensik who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Jakub Mensik is the pick to win this match.
Jakub Mensik -> 1.31
Luca Nardi -> 3.45

Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).

To be able to watch live streaming bet365, a funded account is required or you need to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours. 18+ BeGambleAware.

Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).

At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.

 

Prediction and head to head Jakub Mensik vs. Luca Nardi

This will be the 2nd time that Jakub Mensik and Luca Nardi clash against each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Mensik (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they fought against each other, Mensik won 6-4 6-2 in the qualifications in Miami back in 2024.

Jakub Mensik

Jakub Mensik

29 - 16win/loss

Hard
18-7
I Hard
1-1
Clay
6-5
Grass
4-3
Rank
19
High
16
WLLWWLWWLL
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 35-22 22-12 6-5 3-2 4-3 0-0
2024 41-27 26-12 6-4 7-6 2-5 0-0
2023 37-23 10-6 17-11 10-6 0-0 0-0
2022 37-16 18-4 17-10 0-1 0-0 2-1
2021 1-4 0-0 1-4 0-0 0-0 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 17 (career-high), the Czech reached the 3rd round after defeating Ethan Quinn 6-4 6-2.

In the 2nd round, Mensik had a good straight sets win against Quinn (6-4 6-2). During the match, Mensik scored 61 points vs Quinn’s 47. Jakub was very aggressive to blast 23 winners.

Regarding the service games, Mensik struck 10 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Jakub Mensik was pretty efficient on serve to win 82% (23/28) of his 1st serve and 57% (17/30) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Jakub was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Quinn 3 times.

Mensik has a solid record in the last 5 years having won 63% of his matches (145-86). 18-7 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Mensik has an overall72-29 win-loss record in the last 5 years on hard.

His best result of the current year was winning the title in Miami where he beat Novak Djokovic in the final 7-6(4) 7-6(4).

Mensik has an aggregate 29-16 win-loss record in 2025, 18-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Cincinnati

Cincinnati
Mensik's Record

Luca Nardi

Luca Nardi

26 - 23win/loss

Hard
12-9
I Hard
6-3
Clay
8-9
Grass
0-2
Rank
87
High
67
LWWLLLWLLL
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 30-30 14-13 8-9 8-6 0-2 0-0
2024 32-27 14-14 8-5 9-4 1-4 0-0
2023 41-36 20-10 8-13 12-12 1-1 0-0
2022 33-20 5-2 11-10 17-8 0-0 0-0
2021 33-24 3-3 26-13 4-8 0-0 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 98, Luca reached the 3rd round after defeating Aidan Mayo 6-3 6-2, Alexander Blockx 6-4 6-3, Thiago Agustin Tirante 6-4 7-6(5) and Denis Shapovalov 6-7(5) 6-3 6-4.

In the 2nd round against Shapovalov, The Italian recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-75 6-3 6-4). During the match Nardi scored 108 points vs Shapovalov’s 96. Luca was exceptionally aggressive to blast 48 winners.

About the serving games, Nardi blasted 3 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Luca Nardi was quite effective on serve to win 75% (48/64) of his 1st serve and 57% (21/37) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. The Italian broke Shapovalov 3 times after converting 30% of his break points (3/10).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Italian started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.

Luca’s best result of the year was getting to the final in the Koblenz Challenger.

Luca has a compiled 26-23 win-loss record in 2025, 12-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Cincinnati

Nardi has never competed in this tournament before.

Cincinnati
Nardi's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

J.Mensik
L.Nardi
1h:12
1h:12
Time on court​
!
7h:16
7h:16
1h:12
1h:12
Last match​
!
2h:28
2h:28
1
1
Match played
!
4
4
18
18
Games Played​
91
91
2
2
Set played​​
9
9
61
61
Total points​
308
308
61
61
Avg point​
77
77
23
23
Winners
135
135
23
23
Avg Winners​
33.8
33.8
38%
38%
Ratio winners
44%
44%
-- Serve --
10
10
Aces
12
12
10
10
Avg Aces
3
3
1
1
Double Faults
16
16
1
1
Avg Double Faults
4
4
23/28
23/28
1st won total​
135/190
135/190
!
82%
82%
1st won %
!
71%
71%
17/30
17/30
2nd won total​
59/112
59/112
57%
57%
2nd won %
53%
53%
-- Break Points --
3/3
3/3
BP won
11/34
11/34
3/3
3/3
Avg BP won
2.8/8.5
2.8/8.5
!
100%
100%
Won
32%
32%
0
0
Conceded
25
25
0
0
Avg Conceded
6.3
6.3
0
0
Broken
8
8
!
0
0
Avg Broken
2
2
0
0
Saved
17
17
See Allstats

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Mensik Nardi
Match played 1 3
Tot Set 2 7
Tot Games 18 72
Pts 61-47 258-218
Total Points 108 476
Winners 23 113
%Winners 38% 44%

Mensik played 1 match while Nardi competed in 3 matches. Nardi started his run from the qualifications while Mensik had a direct access to the main draw. At the moment, Luca Nardi dropped 1 set while Jakub Mensik hasn’t dropped a set so far. Mensik has played 5 set(s) less than Nardi (2 vs 7). Therefore, Mensik played 54 games less than Nardi. Mensik scored 23 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Nardi bagged 113 winners (44%).

Serve Performance

Serve Mensik Nardi
Aces 10 12
Avg per match 10 4
1st in 28/58 154/237
%1st in 48% 65%
1st pts 23/28 113/154
%1st pts 82% 73%
2nd pts 17/30 44/83
%2nd pts 57% 53%

Mensik made 10 aces . Nardi managed to score 12 aces (4 per match). Mensik won 82% points on his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 57% of the points. On the other side, Nardi won 73% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 53% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Mensik Nardi
Won 3 11
Converted 3/3 11/32
% Converted 100% 34%
Conceded 0 15
Saved 0 10
% Saved 0% 67%
Times Broken 0 5

The Czech broke his opponent 3 times with a 100% conversion rate. Jakub pretty solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 0 break points. The Italian broke his opponents 11 times with a 34% conversion rate. Luca conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded.

Mensik
R2
Quinn		 Total
Score 6-4 6-2
Tot Set 2 2
Tot Games 18 18
pts 61-47 61-47
Total points 108 108
Winners 23 23
%Winners 38% 38%
SERVE
Aces 10 10
Double Faults 1 1
1st in 28/58 28/58
% 1st in 48% 48%
1st pts 23/28 23/28
% 1st pts 82% 82%
2nd pts 17/30 17/30
% 2nd pts 57% 57%
Breaks
Won 3 3
Converted 3/3 3/3
Converted % 100% 100%
Conceded 0 0
Saved 0/0 0
Saved % – 0%
Times Broken 0 0
Nardi
Q1
Mayo		 Q3
Blockx		 R1
Agustin		 R2
Shapovalov		 Total
Score 6-3 6-2 6-4 6-3 6-4 7-65 6-75 6-3 6-4
Tot Set 2 2 2 3 9
Tot Games 17 19 23 32 91
pts 71-54 – 79-68 108-96 258-218
Total points 125 0 147 204 476
Winners 33 32 48 113
%Winners 46% 0% 41% 44% 44%
SERVE
Aces 5 0 4 3 12
Double Faults 3 6 3 12
1st in 44/64 / 46/72 64/101 154/237
% 1st in 69% 0% 64% 63% 65%
1st pts 33/44 / 32/46 48/64 113/154
% 1st pts 75% 0% 70% 75% 73%
2nd pts 8/20 / 15/26 21/37 44/83
% 2nd pts 40% 0% 58% 57% 53%
Breaks
Won 4 4 3 11
Converted 4/12 / 4/10 3/10 11/32
Converted % 33% 0% 40% 30% 34%
Conceded 4 5 6 15
Saved 3/4 0/ 2/5 5/6 10
Saved % 75% – 40% 83% 198%
Times Broken 1 3 1 5

Tennis Scores in Cincinnati

Upcoming matches in the draw

Mensik
More Stats
Click here
Nardi

Click for FULL STATS