Madison Keys and Aoi Ito will fight against each other in the 3rd round of the Cincinnati Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Monday at 7:00 pm on GRANDSTAND. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Madison Keys who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Madison Keys is the pick to win this match.
Madison Keys -> 1.31
Aoi Ito -> 3.45

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Prediction and head to head Madison Keys vs. Aoi Ito

There is no head to head record between Madison Keys and Aoi Ito since this will be the first time that they will fight against each other in the main tour.

Madison Keys

Madison Keys

36 - 11win/loss

Hard
23-4
I Hard
0-0
Clay
9-4
Grass
4-3
Rank
7
High
5
LLLLWWLWWW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 37-15 24-6 9-4 0-2 4-3 0-0
2024 24-12 7-6 13-4 0-0 4-2 0-0
2023 33-15 19-9 5-3 0-2 9-1 0-0
2022 30-20 25-12 4-4 0-3 1-1 0-0
2021 11-15 3-9 3-4 0-0 5-2 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 6, the American got to the 3rd round after defeating Eva Lys 1-6 6-3 7-6(1).

In the 2nd round against Lys, The American recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (1-6 6-3 7-61). During the match, Keys scored 99 points vs Lys’s 96. Madison was exceptionally aggressive to blast 37 winners.

Regarding the service games, Keys recorded 12 aces and she committed only 6 double faults. Madison Keys lost the serve 5 times and she saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Keys put 60% of her first serves in, winning 67% (37/55) of the points behind her 1st serve and 42% (15/36) on the 2nd serve. Madison broke Lys 4 times after converting 31% of her break points (4/13).

Keys has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 66% of her matches (263-134). 23-4 on hard in 2025. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this tournament, Keys has an aggregate 156-77 win-loss record in the last years on hard.

Her best result of the current year was conquering the title in Adelaide where she beat Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 4-6 6-1 and at the Australian Open where she defeated Aryna Sabalenka in the final 6-3 2-6 7-5.

The American has a compiled 36-11 win-loss record in 2025, 23-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Cincinnati

Cincinnati
Keys's Record

Aoi Ito

Aoi Ito

26 - 19win/loss

Hard
26-13
I Hard
0-1
Clay
0-4
Grass
0-1
Rank
118
High
82
LWWLWWWWLW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 28-21 28-15 0-4 0-1 0-1 0-0
2024 67-25 55-22 0-0 0-0 0-0 12-3
2023 50-29 44-22 0-0 0-1 3-2 3-4
2022 26-11 17-6 0-0 0-2 5-1 4-2
2021 7-3 0-0 7-3 0-0 0-0 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 94 (career-high), Aoi reached the 3rd round after beating Aleksandra Krunic 4-6 6-4 6-2, Dalma Galfi 6-3 6-4, Elena Gabriela Ruse 6-2 7-6(6) and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 6-1 4-6 6-4.

In the 2nd round, The Japanese defeated Pavlyuchenkova (6-1 4-6 6-4). During the match Ito scored 99 points vs Pavlyuchenkova’s 81. The Japanese was pretty aggressive to blast 27 winners.

About the serving games, Ito managed to score 3 aces and she committed only 3 double faults. Aoi Ito lost the serve 5 times and she saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Ito put 59% of her first serves in, winning 52% (27/52) of the points behind her 1st serve and 58% (21/36) on the 2nd serve. Aoi broke Pavlyuchenkova 8 times after converting 57% of her break points (8/14).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Aoi started her run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, she has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points she played.

Her best result of the year was winning the title the Canberra where she beat Sijia Wei in the final 6-4 6-3.

Ito has an overall 26-19 win-loss record in 2025, 26-13 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Cincinnati
Ito's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

M.Keys
A.Ito
2h:12
2h:12
Time on court​
!
7h:12
7h:12
!
2h:12
2h:12
Last match​
!
2h:09
2h:09
1
1
Match played
!
4
4
29
29
Games Played​
95
95
3
3
Set played​​
10
10
99
99
Total points​
346
346
99
99
Avg point​
86.5
86.5
37
37
Winners
128
128
37
37
Avg Winners​
32
32
37%
37%
Ratio winners
37%
37%
-- Serve --
12
12
Aces
11
11
!
12
12
Avg Aces
2.8
2.8
6
6
Double Faults
12
12
!
6
6
Avg Double Faults
3
3
37/55
37/55
1st won total​
128/212
128/212
67%
67%
1st won %
60%
60%
15/36
15/36
2nd won total​
56/104
56/104
42%
42%
2nd won %
54%
54%
-- Break Points --
4/13
4/13
BP won
22/53
22/53
4/13
4/13
Avg BP won
5.5/13.3
5.5/13.3
31%
31%
Won
42%
42%
12
12
Conceded
36
36
12
12
Avg Conceded
9
9
5
5
Broken
13
13
!
5
5
Avg Broken
3.3
3.3
7
7
Saved
23
23
See Allstats

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Keys Ito
Match played 1 4
Tot Set 3 10
Tot Games 29 95
Pts 99-96 346-299
Total Points 195 645
Winners 37 128
%Winners 37% 37%

Keys played 1 match while Ito competed in 4 matches. Ito started her run from the qualifications while Keys had a direct access to the main draw. Both players lost a set in the event. Madison Keys surrendered 1 set, while Aoi Ito dropped 2 sets. Keys has played 7 set(s) less than Ito (3 vs 10). Therefore, Keys played 66 games less than Ito. Madison scored 37 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, The Japanese made 128 winners (37%).

Serve Performance

Serve Keys Ito
Aces 12 11
Avg per match 12 2.8
1st in 55/91 212/316
%1st in 60% 67%
1st pts 37/55 128/212
%1st pts 67% 60%
2nd pts 15/36 56/104
%2nd pts 42% 54%

Keys fired 12 aces . Ito struck 11 aces (2.8 per match). Keys won 67% points behind her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 42% of the points. On the other side, Ito won 60% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 54% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Keys Ito
Won 4 22
Converted 4/13 22/53
% Converted 31% 42%
Conceded 12 36
Saved 7 23
% Saved 58% 64%
Times Broken 5 13

Keys broke her opponent 4 times with a 31% conversion rate. The American conceded her serve 5 times and she saved 58% of the break points that she conceded. The Japanese broke her opponents 22 times with a 42% conversion rate. The Japanese conceded her serve 13 times and she saved 64% of the break points that she conceded.

Keys
R2
Lys		 Total
Score 1-6 6-3 7-61
Tot Set 3 3
Tot Games 29 29
pts 99-96 99-96
Total points 195 195
Winners 37 37
%Winners 37% 37%
SERVE
Aces 12 12
Double Faults 6 6
1st in 55/91 55/91
% 1st in 60% 60%
1st pts 37/55 37/55
% 1st pts 67% 67%
2nd pts 15/36 15/36
% 2nd pts 42% 42%
Breaks
Won 4 4
Converted 4/13 4/13
Converted % 31% 31%
Conceded 12 12
Saved 7/12 7
Saved % 58% 58%
Times Broken 5 5
Ito
Q1
Krunic		 Q3
Galfi		 R1
Gabriela Ruse		 R2
Pavlyuchenkova		 Total
Score 4-6 6-4 6-2 6-3 6-4 6-2 7-66 6-1 4-6 6-4
Tot Set 3 2 2 3 10
Tot Games 28 19 21 27 95
pts 100-94 68-53 79-71 99-81 346-299
Total points 194 121 150 180 645
Winners 36 29 36 27 128
%Winners 36% 43% 46% 27% 37%
SERVE
Aces 6 0 2 3 11
Double Faults 3 2 4 3 12
1st in 62/93 43/58 55/77 52/88 212/316
% 1st in 67% 74% 71% 59% 67%
1st pts 36/62 29/43 36/55 27/52 128/212
% 1st pts 58% 67% 65% 52% 60%
2nd pts 19/31 8/15 8/22 21/36 56/104
% 2nd pts 61% 53% 36% 58% 54%
Breaks
Won 5 4 5 8 22
Converted 5/13 4/15 5/11 8/14 22/53
Converted % 38% 27% 45% 57% 42%
Conceded 12 5 9 10 36
Saved 9/12 3/5 6/9 5/10 23
Saved % 75% 60% 67% 50% 252%
Times Broken 3 2 3 5 13

Tennis Scores in Cincinnati

Upcoming matches in the draw

Keys
More Stats
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Ito

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