Holger Rune and Alex Michelsen will fight against each other in the 3^rd round of the Cincinnati Open for the 1^st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Monday at 11:00 am on GRANDSTAND. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Holger Rune who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Holger Rune is the pick to win this match.
Holger Rune -> 1.56
Alex Michelsen -> 2.43

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Prediction and head to head Holger Rune vs. Alex Michelsen

There is no head to head record between Holger Rune and Alex Michelsen since this will be the first time that they will square off in the main tour.

Holger Rune

Ranked no. 9, the Dane reached the 3^rd round after beating Roman Safiullin 7-5 7-6(5).

In the 2^nd round, Holger had a good straight sets win against Safiullin (7-5 7-6⁵). During the match, Rune scored 80 points vs Safiullin’s 74. Holger was very aggressive to blast 32 winners.

Regarding the service games, Rune made 4 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Holger Rune lost the serve twice and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Rune put 56% of his first serves in, winning 68% (32/47) of the points behind his 1st serve and 62% (23/37) on the 2nd serve. The Dane broke Safiullin 3 times after converting 60% of his break points (3/5).

Rune has a solid record in the last 8 years having won 66% of his matches (276-145). 12-6 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Rune has an overall63-48 win-loss record in the last 8 years on hard.

His best result of the current year was winning the title in Barcelona where he defeated Carlos Alcaraz in the final 7-6(6) 6-2.

Rune has an overall 25-15 win-loss record in 2025, 12-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Cincinnati

Alex Michelsen

Ranked no. 33, Alex reached the 3^rd round after beating Corentin Moutet 3-6 6-3 6-4.

In the 2^nd round against Moutet, The American recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-3 6-4). During the match Michelsen scored 94 points vs Moutet’s 85. Michelsen was very aggressive to blast 37 winners.

About the serving games, Michelsen managed to score 2 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Alex Michelsen lost the serve 3 times and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Michelsen put 53% of his first serves in, winning 80% (37/46) of the points behind his 1st serve and 44% (18/41) on the 2nd serve. Alex broke Moutet 4 times after converting 31% of his break points (4/13).

His best result of the year was winning the title the Estoril Challenger where he defeated Andrea Pellegrino in the final 6-4 6-4.

Alex has a composed 26-19 win-loss record in 2025, 14-9 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Cincinnati

Previously, his best result was reaching the 2^nd round in 2024. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Rune	Michelsen
Match played	1	1
Tot Set	2	3
Tot Games	25	28
Pts	80-74	94-85
Total Points	154	179
Winners	32	37
%Winners	40%	39%

Both Rune and Michelsen played 1 match. At the moment, Alex Michelsen lost 1 set while Holger Rune hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Rune has played 1 set(s) less than Michelsen (2 vs 3). Therefore, Rune played 3 games less than Michelsen. Holger scored 32 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, Michelsen managed to score 37 winners (39%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Rune	Michelsen
Aces	4	2
Avg per match	4	2
1st in	47/84	46/87
%1st in	56%	53%
1st pts	32/47	37/46
%1st pts	68%	80%
2nd pts	23/37	18/41
%2nd pts	62%	44%

Rune managed to score 4 aces . Michelsen scored 2 aces . Rune won 68% points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 62% of the points. On the other side, Michelsen won 80% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 44% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Rune	Michelsen
Won	3	4
Converted	3/5	4/13
% Converted	60%	31%
Conceded	4	6
Saved	2	3
% Saved	50%	50%
Times Broken	2	3

Rune broke his opponent 3 times with a 60% conversion rate. Rune lost his serve twice and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded. Michelsen broke his opponent 4 times with a 31% conversion rate. The American conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 50% of the break points that he conceded.

Rune
	R2 Safiullin	Total
Score	7-5 7-65
Tot Set	2	2
Tot Games	25	25
pts	80-74	80-74
Total points	154	154
Winners	32	32
%Winners	40%	40%
SERVE
Aces	4	4
Double Faults	4	4
1st in	47/84	47/84
% 1st in	56%	56%
1st pts	32/47	32/47
% 1st pts	68%	68%
2nd pts	23/37	23/37
% 2nd pts	62%	62%
Breaks
Won	3	3
Converted	3/5	3/5
Converted %	60%	60%
Conceded	4	4
Saved	2/4	2
Saved %	50%	50%
Times Broken	2	2

Michelsen
	R2 Moutet	Total
Score	3-6 6-3 6-4
Tot Set	3	3
Tot Games	28	28
pts	94-85	94-85
Total points	179	179
Winners	37	37
%Winners	39%	39%
SERVE
Aces	2	2
Double Faults	4	4
1st in	46/87	46/87
% 1st in	53%	53%
1st pts	37/46	37/46
% 1st pts	80%	80%
2nd pts	18/41	18/41
% 2nd pts	44%	44%
Breaks
Won	4	4
Converted	4/13	4/13
Converted %	31%	31%
Conceded	6	6
Saved	3/6	3
Saved %	50%	50%
Times Broken	3	3

Tennis Scores in Cincinnati

• Jiri LeheckaLehecka – Tristan BoyerBoyer (4-6 6-1 6-4) – See score progression
• Francisco ComesanaComesana – Luciano DarderiDarderi (6-4 3-1 ret.) – See score progression
• Roberto Bautista AgutBautista Agut – Cameron NorrieNorrie (6-4 6-3) – See score progression
• Reilly OpelkaOpelka – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (7-6⁶ 6-4) – See score progression
• Andrey RublevRublev – Learner TienTien (7-6⁴ 6-3) – See score progression
• Jakub MensikMensik – Ethan QuinnQuinn (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Gabriel DialloDiallo – Sebastian BaezBaez (7-5 6-4) – See score progression
• Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Roberto Carballes BaenaCarballes Baena (6-4 6-3) – See score progression
• Jannik SinnerSinner – Daniel Elahi GalanElahi Galan (6-1 6-1) – See score progression
• Felix Auger-AliassimeAuger-Aliassime – Tomas Martin EtcheverryMartin Etcheverry (6-2 7-6³) – See score progression
• Taylor FritzFritz – Emilio NavaNava (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
• Arthur RinderknechRinderknech – Casper RuudRuud (6-7⁵ 6-4 6-2) – See score progression
• Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Fabian MarozsanMarozsan (7-6³ 6-2) – See score progression
• Adrian MannarinoMannarino – Tomas MachacMachac (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
• Holger RuneRune – Roman SafiullinSafiullin (7-5 7-6⁵) – See score progression
• Terence AtmaneAtmane – Flavio CobolliCobolli (6-4 3-6 7-6⁵) – See score progression
• Ugo HumbertHumbert – Chak Lam Coleman WongLam Coleman Wong (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Joao FonsecaFonseca – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina (6-7⁴ 5-4 ret.) – See score progression
• Benjamin BonziBonzi – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (5-7 6-4 7-6⁴) – See score progression
• Tommy PaulPaul – Pedro Martinez PorteroMartinez Portero (6-2 6-2) – See score progression
• Lorenzo SonegoSonego – Zizou BergsBergs (6-3 7-6⁴) – See score progression
• Alex MichelsenMichelsen – Corentin MoutetMoutet (3-6 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
• Jiri LeheckaLehecka – Tristan BoyerBoyer (4-6 6-1 6-4) – See score progression
• Reilly OpelkaOpelka – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (7-6(6) 6-4) – See score progression
• Francisco ComesanaComesana – Luciano DarderiDarderi (6-4 3-1 ret.) – See score progression
• Andrey RublevRublev – Learner TienTien (7-6(4) 6-3) – See score progression
• Jakub MensikMensik – Ethan QuinnQuinn (6-4 6-2) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Roberto Bautista AgutBautista Agut – Cameron NorrieNorrie (0-4) – H2H and prediction
• Adrian MannarinoMannarino – Tommy PaulPaul (1-1) – H2H and prediction
• Damir DzumhurDzumhur – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (0-2) – H2H and prediction
• Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Valentin RoyerRoyer (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Reilly OpelkaOpelka – Francisco ComesanaComesana (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Arthur RinderknechRinderknech – Felix Auger AliassimeAuger Aliassime (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Lorenzo SonegoSonego (6-2) – H2H and prediction
• Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Ugo HumbertHumbert (2-1) – H2H and prediction
• Stefanos TsitsipasTsitsipas – Benjamin BonziBonzi (3-0) – H2H and prediction
• Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Alexei PopyrinPopyrin – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Jenson BrooksbyBrooksby – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Jannik SinnerSinner – Gabriel DialloDiallo (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Adam WaltonWalton – Daniil MedvedevMedvedev (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Brandon NakashimaNakashima – (1-0) – H2H and prediction