H2H, prediction of Tommy Paul vs Adrian Mannarino in Cincinnati with odds, preview, pick | 11th August 2025

PREVIEW. Cincinnati. Paul and Mannarino will square off in the 3rd round of the Cincinnati Open. See the prediction, H2H stats, odds, and preview of their upcoming match on Monday the 11th of August

By
Mark Hall
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Prediction and head to head Tommy Paul vs. Adrian Mannarino

Tommy Paul and Adrian Mannarino will fight against each other in the 3rd round of the Cincinnati Open for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Monday at 9:30 pm on GRANDSTAND. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Tommy Paul who should win in 2 sets.

See updated oddsAs per the initial odds, Tommy Paul is the pick to win this match.
Tommy Paul -> 1.26
Adrian Mannarino -> 3.85

Click here to see the updated quotes and live streaming (only selected countries - USA excluded).

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Here where top tennis events are broadcasted or streamed online (ATP, WTA).

At the challenger level, there will be free live streaming on Challenger TV.

 

Soccer Tonic Predictions

Prediction and head to head Tommy Paul vs. Adrian Mannarino

This will be the 3rd time that Tommy Paul and Adrian Mannarino face off. The head to head is 1-1 for Paul and Mannarino (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on hard.

The last time that they competed against each other, Mannarino won 6-3 7-5 in the 1st round in Paris back in 2024.

Highlights Adrian Mannarino vs Tommy Paul – Paris 28-October-2024

Tommy Paul

Tommy Paul
Tommy Paul

27 - 11win/loss

Hard
11-4
I Hard
3-1
Clay
12-4
Grass
1-2
Rank
20
High
8
LWWLWLWLLW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 29-13 13-6 12-4 3-1 1-2 0-0
2024 45-20 17-12 10-4 8-2 10-2 0-0
2023 46-29 29-13 5-6 3-5 9-5 0-0
2022 39-27 21-12 2-6 9-5 7-4 0-0
2021 33-23 12-12 9-7 12-4 0-0 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 16, Paul got to the 3rd round after beating Pedro Martinez Portero 6-2 6-2.

In the 2nd round, Paul had a good straight sets win against Martinez Portero (6-2 6-2). During the match, Paul scored 71 points vs Martinez Portero’s 50. Tommy was extremely aggressive to blast 25 winners.

Regarding the service games, Paul made 8 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Tommy Paul was exceptionally effective on serve to win 76% (25/33) of his 1st serve and 57% (13/23) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Paul broke Martinez Portero 4 times after converting 40% of his break points (4/10).

Paul has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 64% of his matches (372-212). 11-4 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Paul has an overall 188-107 match record in the last years on hard.

Tommy’s best result of the current season was reaching the semifinal in Adelaide, Dallas, Houston and Rome.

The American has a composed 27-11 win-loss record in 2025, 11-4 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Cincinnati

Paul
Cincinnati
Paul's Record

Adrian Mannarino

Adrian Mannarino
Adrian Mannarino

27 - 29win/loss

Hard
8-11
I Hard
0-3
Clay
5-9
Grass
14-6
Rank
69
High
17
LLLLWLWWWL
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 35-37 16-16 5-9 0-6 14-6 0-0
2024 17-33 9-17 0-5 7-6 1-5 0-0
2023 44-29 15-13 2-8 15-4 12-4 0-0
2022 31-32 18-14 1-6 8-7 4-5 0-0
2021 14-26 5-7 0-7 5-8 4-4 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 89, the French player reached the 3rd round after defeating Mitchell Krueger 6-1 6-1, Dalibor Svrcina 6-3 6-4, Jordan Thompson 6-2 6-2 and Tomas Machac 6-3 6-3.

In the 2nd round, The French player had a good straight sets win against Machac (6-3 6-3). During the match Mannarino scored 78 points vs Machac’s 56. Mannarino was very aggressive to blast 24 winners.

About the serving games, Mannarino recorded 5 aces and he was exceptionally solid in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Overall, Adrian Mannarino was extremely efficient on serve to win 83% (24/29) of his 1st serve and 53% (16/30) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Mannarino broke Machac 4 times after converting 36% of his break points (4/11).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Adrian started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he hasn’t conceded yet a set in this tournament to win 60% of the points he played.

Mannarino’s best result of the year was getting to the final in the Newport Challenger.

The French player has a compiled 27-29 win-loss record in 2025, 8-11 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Cincinnati

Previously, his best result was reaching the quarter in 2023. See his history.

Mannarino
Cincinnati
Mannarino's Record
Bonus
Soccer Tonic Predictions

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

T.Paul
A.Mannarino
1h:31
1h:31
Time on court​
!
5h:30
5h:30
1h:31
1h:31
Last match​
1h:30
1h:30
1
1
Match played
!
4
4
16
16
Games Played​
67
67
2
2
Set played​​
8
8
71
71
Total points​
261
261
71
71
Avg point​
65.3
65.3
25
25
Winners
86
86
25
25
Avg Winners​
21.5
21.5
35%
35%
Ratio winners
33%
33%
-- Serve --
8
8
Aces
20
20
8
8
Avg Aces
5
5
2
2
Double Faults
3
3
2
2
Avg Double Faults
0.8
0.8
25/33
25/33
1st won total​
86/108
86/108
!
76%
76%
1st won %
!
80%
80%
13/23
13/23
2nd won total​
56/92
56/92
57%
57%
2nd won %
!
61%
61%
-- Break Points --
4/10
4/10
BP won
17/33
17/33
4/10
4/10
Avg BP won
4.3/8.3
4.3/8.3
40%
40%
Won
!
52%
52%
6
6
Conceded
8
8
6
6
Avg Conceded
2
2
0
0
Broken
3
3
!
0
0
Avg Broken
!
0.8
0.8
6
6
Saved
5
5
See Allstats

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Paul Mannarino
Match played 1 4
Tot Set 2 8
Tot Games 16 67
Pts 71-50 261-173
Total Points 121 434
Winners 25 86
%Winners 35% 33%

Paul played 1 match while Mannarino competed in 4 matches. Mannarino started his run from the qualifications while Paul had a direct access to the main draw. Both players have not lost a single set in this event so far. Paul has played 6 set(s) less than Mannarino (2 vs 8). Therefore, Paul played 51 games less than Mannarino. Tommy scored 25 winners (35% of the total points). On the other side, Mannarino blasted 86 winners (33%).

Serve Performance

Serve Paul Mannarino
Aces 8 20
Avg per match 8 5
1st in 33/56 108/200
%1st in 59% 54%
1st pts 25/33 86/108
%1st pts 76% 80%
2nd pts 13/23 56/92
%2nd pts 57% 61%

Paul scored 8 aces . Mannarino bagged 20 aces (5 per match). Paul won 76% points behind his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 57% of the points. On the other side, Mannarino won 80% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 61% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Paul Mannarino
Won 4 17
Converted 4/10 17/33
% Converted 40% 52%
Conceded 6 8
Saved 6 5
% Saved 100% 63%
Times Broken 0 3

Paul broke his opponent 4 times with a 40% conversion rate. Paul pretty effective on his serve as he has never surrendered a single service game after saving 6 break points. Mannarino broke his opponents 17 times with a 52% conversion rate. Mannarino conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 63% of the break points that he conceded.

Paul
R2
Martinez Portero		 Total
Score 6-2 6-2
Tot Set 2 2
Tot Games 16 16
pts 71-50 71-50
Total points 121 121
Winners 25 25
%Winners 35% 35%
SERVE
Aces 8 8
Double Faults 2 2
1st in 33/56 33/56
% 1st in 59% 59%
1st pts 25/33 25/33
% 1st pts 76% 76%
2nd pts 13/23 13/23
% 2nd pts 57% 57%
Breaks
Won 4 4
Converted 4/10 4/10
Converted % 40% 40%
Conceded 6 6
Saved 6/6 6
Saved % 100% 100%
Times Broken 0 0
Mannarino
Q1
Krueger		 Q3
Svrcina		 R1
Thompson		 R2
Machac		 Total
Score 6-1 6-1 6-3 6-4 6-2 6-2 6-3 6-3
Tot Set 2 2 2 2 8
Tot Games 14 19 16 18 67
pts 54-24 61-48 68-45 78-56 261-173
Total points 78 109 113 134 434
Winners 17 22 23 24 86
%Winners 31% 36% 34% 31% 33%
SERVE
Aces 6 4 5 5 20
Double Faults 1 1 1 0 3
1st in 20/37 32/59 27/45 29/59 108/200
% 1st in 54% 54% 60% 49% 54%
1st pts 17/20 22/32 23/27 24/29 86/108
% 1st pts 85% 69% 85% 83% 80%
2nd pts 12/17 17/27 11/18 16/30 56/92
% 2nd pts 71% 63% 61% 53% 61%
Breaks
Won 5 4 4 4 17
Converted 5/10 4/4 4/8 4/11 17/33
Converted % 50% 100% 50% 36% 52%
Conceded 0 3 1 4 8
Saved 0/0 1/3 1/1 3/4 5
Saved % – 33% 100% 75% 208%
Times Broken 0 2 0 1 3

Head 2 Head

Tommy Paul
  • 0Slam
  • 4Main
  • 4Chall
  • 6Minor
Adrian Mannarino
  • 0Slam
  • 5Main
  • 14Chall
  • 6Minor

Tommy
Paul

1:2

Adrian
Mannarino

Rank

20

High

8

0Hard1

0I.hard1

1Grass0

Rank

69

High

17

Win Loss
Paul
LWWLWLWLLW
Mannarino
LLLLWLWWWL
2025 2024 2023
29 - 13
35 - 37
13-6
Hard
16-16
3-1
I Hard
0-6
12-4
Clay
5-9
1-2
Grass
14-6

Tennis Scores in Cincinnati

See Updated Draw
Soccer Tonic Predictions
Bonus

Upcoming matches in the draw

Paul Tommy Paul
More Stats
Click here
Mannarino
Adrian Mannarino