Madison Keys and Karolina Muchova will square off in the 4^th round of the Omnium Banque Nationale for the 2^nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 12:30 pm on ROGERS. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Madison Keys who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Madison Keys is the pick to win this match.
Madison Keys -> 1.62
Karolina Muchova -> 2.3

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Prediction and head to head Madison Keys vs. Karolina Muchova

This will be the 2^nd time that Madison Keys and Karolina Muchova play each other. The head to head is 1-0 for Keys (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they squared off, Keys won 6-4 7-6(5) in the 1^st round in Beijing back in 2019.

Madison Keys

Ranked no. 8, Madison reached the 4^th round after defeating Laura Siegemund 6-2 6-1 and Caty McNally 2-6 6-3 6-3.

In the 3^rd round against McNally, Madison recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (2-6 6-3 6-3). During the match, Keys scored 99 points vs McNally’s 93. Madison was quite aggressive to blast 42 winners.

Talking about the service games, Keys scored 3 aces and she committed only 7 double faults. Madison Keys lost the serve 3 times and she saved 4 break points. Furthermore, Keys put 68% of her first serves in, winning 67% (42/63) of the points behind her 1st serve and 45% (13/29) on the 2nd serve. The American broke McNally 4 times after converting 31% of her break points (4/13).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Keys has conceded 1 set in this tournament to conquer 55% of the points she played.

Keys has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 66% of her matches (261-133). 21-3 on hard in 2025. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this competition, Keys has a compiled 154-76 match record in the last years on hard.

Her best result of the current season was conquering the title in Adelaide where she overcame Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 4-6 6-1 and at the Australian Open where she beat Aryna Sabalenka in the final 6-3 2-6 7-5.

The American has a compiled 34-10 win-loss record in 2025, 21-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Toronto

Karolina Muchova

Ranked no. 14, Muchova reached the 4^th round after defeating Antonia Ruzic 7-5 7-5 and Belinda Bencic 6-7(2) 6-2 6-3.

In the 3^rd round against Bencic, The Czech recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-7² 6-2 6-3). During the match Muchova scored 111 points vs Bencic’s 104. Karolina was quite aggressive to blast 45 winners.

Talking about serving, Muchova fired 4 aces and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Karolina Muchova lost the serve once and she saved 10 break points. Furthermore, Muchova put 59% of her first serves in, winning 68% (45/66) of the points behind her 1st serve and 53% (24/45) on the 2nd serve. Karolina broke Bencic 5 times after converting 33% of her break points (5/15).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Czech has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points she played.

Muchova’s best result of the current season was reaching the semifinal in Australia, Linz and Dubai.

Muchova has an overall 15-10 win-loss record in 2025, 12-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Toronto

Previously, her best result was reaching the 3^rd round in 2023. See her history

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H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Keys	Muchova
Match played	2	2
Tot Set	5	5
Tot Games	41	54
Pts	151-123	192-177
Total Points	274	369
Winners	67	80
%Winners	44%	42%

Both Keys and Muchova played 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Madison Keys dropped 1 set, while Karolina Muchova dropped 1 set. Talking about their workload, Keys and Muchova have played the same amount of sets 5. However, Keys played 13 games less than Muchova. The American scored 67 winners (44% of the total points). On the other side, The Czech managed to score 80 winners (42%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Keys	Muchova
Aces	6	10
Avg per match	3	5
1st in	99/139	119/194
%1st in	71%	61%
1st pts	67/99	80/119
%1st pts	68%	67%
2nd pts	18/40	40/75
%2nd pts	45%	53%

Keys scored 6 aces (3 per match). Muchova struck 10 aces (5 per match). Keys won 68% points on her first serve. She very solid her second serve to win 45% of the points. On the other side, Muchova won 67% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 53% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Keys	Muchova
Won	9	9
Converted	9/18	9/21
% Converted	50%	43%
Conceded	11	18
Saved	7	15
% Saved	64%	83%
Times Broken	4	3

Keys broke her opponents 9 times with a 50% conversion rate. Keys surrendered her serve 4 times and she saved 64% of the break points that she conceded. The Czech broke her opponents 9 times with a 43% conversion rate. Muchova conceded her serve 3 times and she saved 83% of the break points that she conceded.

Keys
	R2 Siegemund	R3 McNally	Total
Score	6-2 6-1	2-6 6-3 6-3
Tot Set	2	3	5
Tot Games	15	26	41
pts	52-30	99-93	151-123
Total points	82	192	274
Winners	25	42	67
%Winners	48%	42%	44%
SERVE
Aces	3	3	6
Double Faults	1	7	8
1st in	36/47	63/92	99/139
% 1st in	77%	68%	71%
1st pts	25/36	42/63	67/99
% 1st pts	69%	67%	68%
2nd pts	5/11	13/29	18/40
% 2nd pts	45%	45%	45%
Breaks
Won	5	4	9
Converted	5/5	4/13	9/18
Converted %	100%	31%	50%
Conceded	4	7	11
Saved	3/4	4/7	7
Saved %	75%	57%	66%
Times Broken	1	3	4

Muchova
	R2 Ruzic	R3 Bencic	Total
Score	7-5 7-5	6-72 6-2 6-3
Tot Set	2	3	5
Tot Games	24	30	54
pts	81-73	111-104	192-177
Total points	154	215	369
Winners	35	45	80
%Winners	43%	41%	42%
SERVE
Aces	6	4	10
Double Faults	2	1	3
1st in	53/83	66/111	119/194
% 1st in	64%	59%	61%
1st pts	35/53	45/66	80/119
% 1st pts	66%	68%	67%
2nd pts	16/30	24/45	40/75
% 2nd pts	53%	53%	53%
Breaks
Won	4	5	9
Converted	4/6	5/15	9/21
Converted %	67%	33%	43%
Conceded	7	11	18
Saved	5/7	10/11	15
Saved %	71%	91%	81%
Times Broken	2	1	3

Tennis Scores in Montreal

• Marta KostyukKostyuk – Mccartney KesslerKessler (5-7 6-3 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Elena RybakinaElena – Dayana YastremskaDayana (5-7 6-2 7-5) – See score progression

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Cori GauffGauff – (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Lin ZhuZhu – Jessica Bouzas ManeiroBouzas Maneiro (0-0) – H2H and prediction
• Elena RybakinaRybakina – Dayana YastremskaYastremska (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova – Elina SvitolinaSvitolina (1-3) – H2H and prediction
• Naomi OsakaOsaka – Anastasija SevastovaSevastova (3-2) – H2H and prediction
• Madison KeysKeys – Karolina MuchovaMuchova (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Clara TausonTauson – Iga SwiatekSwiatek (0-3) – H2H and prediction