Alex De Minaur and Frances Tiafoe will face off in the 4^th round of the National Bank Open for the 5^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 12:30 pm on CENTRE COURT. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alex De Minaur who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Alex De Minaur is the pick to win this match.
Alex De Minaur -> 1.32
Frances Tiafoe -> 3.38

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Prediction and head to head Alex De Minaur vs. Frances Tiafoe

This will be the 5^th time that Alex De Minaur and Frances Tiafoe play each other. The head to head is 3-1 for De Minaur (see full H2H stats), 2-0 on hard.

The last time that they fought against each other, Tiafoe won 6-3 7-6(5) in the 3^rd round in Paris back in 2022.

Alex De Minaur

Ranked no. 8, Alex got to the 4^th round after beating Francisco Comesana 6-4 6-2 and Christopher O Connell w/o.

In the 3^rd round, De Minaur defeated O Connell (w/o). During the match, De Minaur and O Connell scored the same amount of points (). However, the world no. 8 was stronger during the important points and that was the most significant difference in the match. De Minaur was not very aggressive to strike just winners.

Talking about the service games, De Minaur was unable to score even 1 ace for the entire match and he was extremely consistent in conceding no double faults. Alex De Minaur conceded no breaks for the entire match to put 0% of his first serves in, win 0% (0) of the points behind his 1st serve and 0% (0) on the 2nd serve.

De Minaur has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 64% of his matches (395-218). 18-5 on hard in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this event, De Minaur has an aggregate 189-91 record in the last years on hard.

His best result of the season was winning the title in Washington where he defeated Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the final 5-7 6-1 7-6(3).

De Minaur has an overall 36-13 win-loss record in 2025, 18-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Montreal

Frances Tiafoe

Ranked no. 12, Tiafoe reached the 4^th round after defeating Yosuke Watanuki 1-6 7-5 7-6(5) and Aleksandar Vukic 6-3 4-6 6-3.

In the 3^rd round, The American defeated Vukic (6-3 4-6 6-3). During the match Tiafoe scored 95 points vs Vukic’s 88. Tiafoe was exceptionally aggressive to blast 34 winners.

Talking about serving, Tiafoe scored 10 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Frances Tiafoe was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 76% (34/45) of his 1st serve and 58% (22/38) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Tiafoe broke Vukic 4 times after converting 33% of his break points (4/12).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Tiafoe has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 50% of the points he played.

Francis’s best result of the current season was getting to the final in Houston.

Francis has a composed 22-16 win-loss record in 2025, 9-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Montreal

Previously, his best result was reaching the 3^rd round in 2018 and 2021. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	De Minaur	Tiafoe
Match played	1	2
Tot Set	2	6
Tot Games	18	60
Pts	66-45	185-187
Total Points	111	372
Winners	19	75
%Winners	29%	41%

De Minaur played 1 match while Tiafoe competed in 2 matches. At the moment, Frances Tiafoe surrendered 2 sets while Alex De Minaur hasn’t dropped a set so far. De Minaur has played 4 set(s) less than Tiafoe (2 vs 6). Therefore, De Minaur played 42 games less than Tiafoe. The Australian scored 19 winners (29% of the total points). On the other side, The American fired 75 winners (41%).

Serve Performance

Serve	De Minaur	Tiafoe
Aces	2	20
Avg per match	2	10
1st in	23/53	100/177
%1st in	43%	56%
1st pts	19/23	75/100
%1st pts	83%	75%
2nd pts	20/30	46/77
%2nd pts	67%	60%

De Minaur made 2 aces . Tiafoe bagged 20 aces (10 per match). De Minaur won 83% points behind his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 67% of the points. On the other side, Tiafoe won 75% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 60% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	De Minaur	Tiafoe
Won	3	5
Converted	3/6	5/15
% Converted	50%	33%
Conceded	1	13
Saved	1	9
% Saved	100%	69%
Times Broken	0	4

The Australian broke his opponent 3 times with a 50% conversion rate. Alex pretty effective on his serve as he has never dropped a single service game after saving 1 break points. Francis broke his opponents 5 times with a 33% conversion rate. The American conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 69% of the break points that he conceded.

De Minaur
	R2 Comesana	R3 O Connell	Total
Score	6-4 6-2	w/o
Tot Set	2	–	2
Tot Games	18	–	18
pts	66-45	–	66-45
Total points	111	–	111
Winners	19	–	19
%Winners	29%	–	29%
SERVE
Aces	2	–	2
Double Faults	3	–	3
1st in	23/53	–	23/53
% 1st in	43%	–	43%
1st pts	19/23	–	19/23
% 1st pts	83%	–	83%
2nd pts	20/30	–	20/30
% 2nd pts	67%	–	67%
Breaks
Won	3	–	3
Converted	3/6	–	3/6
Converted %	50%	–	50%
Conceded	1	–	1
Saved	1/1	–	1
Saved %	100%	–	50%
Times Broken	0	–	0

Tiafoe
	R2 Watanuki	R3 Vukic	Total
Score	1-6 7-5 7-65	6-3 4-6 6-3
Tot Set	3	3	6
Tot Games	32	28	60
pts	90-99	95-88	185-187
Total points	189	183	372
Winners	41	34	75
%Winners	46%	36%	41%
SERVE
Aces	10	10	20
Double Faults	3	3	6
1st in	55/94	45/83	100/177
% 1st in	59%	54%	56%
1st pts	41/55	34/45	75/100
% 1st pts	75%	76%	75%
2nd pts	24/39	22/38	46/77
% 2nd pts	62%	58%	60%
Breaks
Won	1	4	5
Converted	1/3	4/12	5/15
Converted %	33%	33%	33%
Conceded	9	4	13
Saved	7/9	2/4	9
Saved %	78%	50%	64%
Times Broken	2	2	4

Tennis Scores in Toronto

• Alex MichelsenMichelsen – Learner TienTien (6-3 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Casper RuudRuud (6-4 7-5) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Alexander ZverevZverev – Francisco CerundoloCerundolo (0-3) – H2H and prediction
• Andrey RublevRublev – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina (5-1) – H2H and prediction
• Frances TiafoeTiafoe – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (1-3) – H2H and prediction
• Alexei PopyrinPopyrin – Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneVitus Nodskov Rune (0-1) – H2H and prediction
• Jiri LeheckaLehecka – Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz (0-3) – H2H and prediction
• Flavio CobolliCobolli – (2-1) – H2H and prediction