Alex De Minaur and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina will square off in the final of the Citi Open for the 6^th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 5:00 pm on STADIUM. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alex De Minaur who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Alex De Minaur is the pick to win this match.
Alex De Minaur -> 1.48
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina -> 2.65

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Prediction and head to head Alex De Minaur vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

This will be the 6^th time that Alex De Minaur and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina face off. The head to head is 3-2 for Davidovich Fokina (see full H2H stats), but De Minaur has a winning record of 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they locked horns, De Minaur won 6-1 6-3 in the semifinal in Toronto back in 2023.

Highlights Alex De Minaur vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina – Toronto 12-August-2023

Alex De Minaur

Ranked no. 13, Alex reached the final after beating Bu Yunchaokete 7-6(5) 6-2

, Jiri Lehecka 7-6(4) 6-7(6) 6-4, Brandon Nakashima 6-4 6-4 and Corentin Moutet 6-4 6-3.

In the semifinal, The Australian had a good straight sets win against Moutet (6-4 6-3). During the match, De Minaur scored 71 points vs Moutet’s 53. The Australian was extremely aggressive to blast 24 winners.

Regarding the service games, De Minaur couldn’t to score even 1 ace throughout the match and he committed only 2 double faults. Alex De Minaur lost the serve twice and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, De Minaur put 59% of his first serves in, winning 71% (24/34) of the points behind his 1st serve and 50% (12/24) on the 2nd serve. The Australian broke Moutet 5 times after converting 71% of his break points (5/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Australian has dropped 1 set in this competition to win 56% of the points he played.

De Minaur has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 64% of his matches (393-218). 16-5 on hard in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this event, De Minaur has an overall 187-91 record in the last years on hard.

De Minaur’s best result of the current year was getting to the final in Rotterdam.

Alex has an overall 34-13 win-loss record in 2025, 16-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Washington

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Ranked no. 26, Alejandro got to the final after beating Jaume Antoni Munar Clar 6-4 6-2, Learner Tien 6-2 6-2, Taylor Fritz 7-6(3) 3-6 7-5 and Ben Shelton 6-2 7-5.

In the semifinal, Alejandro had a good straight sets win against Shelton (6-2 7-5). During the match Davidovich Fokina scored 61 points vs Shelton’s 46. The Spaniard was extremely aggressive to blast 29 winners.

About the serving games, Davidovich Fokina scored just 1 ace during the entire match and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Overall, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina was quite efficient on serve to win 78% (29/37) of his 1st serve and 60% (9/15) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Davidovich Fokina broke Shelton 4 times after converting 67% of his break points (4/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Spaniard has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.

Davidovich Fokina’s best result of the current season was getting to the final in Delray Beach and Acapulco.

The Spaniard has an overall 32-17 win-loss record in 2025, 17-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Washington

Previously, his best result was reaching the 3^rd round in 2024. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	De Minaur	Davidovich Fokina
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	9	9
Tot Games	96	88
Pts	332-264	312-260
Total Points	596	572
Winners	120	129
%Winners	36%	41%

Both De Minaur and Davidovich Fokina played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Alex De Minaur surrendered 1 set, while Alejandro Davidovich Fokina conceded 1 set. Talking about their workload, De Minaur and Davidovich Fokina have played the same amount of sets 9. However, De Minaur played 8 games more than Davidovich Fokina. De Minaur scored 120 winners (36% of the total points). On the other side, Alejandro struck 129 winners (41%).

Serve Performance

Serve	De Minaur	Davidovich Fokina
Aces	16	14
Avg per match	4	3.5
1st in	161/289	187/288
%1st in	56%	65%
1st pts	120/161	129/187
%1st pts	75%	69%
2nd pts	76/128	57/101
%2nd pts	59%	56%

De Minaur managed to score 16 aces (4 per match). Davidovich Fokina managed to score 14 aces (3.5 per match). De Minaur won 75% points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 59% of the points. On the other side, Davidovich Fokina won 69% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	De Minaur	Davidovich Fokina
Won	15	17
Converted	15/29	17/31
% Converted	52%	55%
Conceded	18	25
Saved	11	17
% Saved	61%	68%
Times Broken	7	8

The Australian broke his opponents 15 times with a 52% conversion rate. Alex conceded his serve 7 times and he saved 61% of the break points that he conceded. Davidovich Fokina broke his opponents 17 times with a 55% conversion rate. Alejandro conceded his serve 8 times and he saved 68% of the break points that he conceded.

De Minaur
	R2 Yunchaokete	R3 Lehecka	1/4 Nakashima	1/2 Moutet	Total
Score	7-65 6-2	7-64 6-76 6-4	6-4 6-4	6-4 6-3
Tot Set	2	3	2	2	9
Tot Games	21	36	20	19	96
pts	73-58	118-101	70-52	71-53	332-264
Total points	131	219	122	124	596
Winners	29	41	26	24	120
%Winners	40%	35%	37%	34%	36%
SERVE
Aces	2	8	6	0	16
Double Faults	1	4	2	2	9
1st in	40/67	48/98	39/66	34/58	161/289
% 1st in	60%	49%	59%	59%	56%
1st pts	29/40	41/48	26/39	24/34	120/161
% 1st pts	73%	85%	67%	71%	75%
2nd pts	18/27	30/50	16/27	12/24	76/128
% 2nd pts	67%	60%	59%	50%	59%
Breaks
Won	3	3	4	5	15
Converted	3/7	3/9	4/6	5/7	15/29
Converted %	43%	33%	67%	71%	52%
Conceded	3	5	5	5	18
Saved	2/3	3/5	3/5	3/5	11
Saved %	67%	60%	60%	60%	62%
Times Broken	1	2	2	2	7

Davidovich Fokina
	R2 Munar Clar	R3 Tien	1/4 Fritz	1/2 Shelton	Total
Score	6-4 6-2	6-2 6-2	7-63 3-6 7-5	6-2 7-5
Tot Set	2	2	3	2	9
Tot Games	18	16	34	20	88
pts	62-49	62-41	127-124	61-46	312-260
Total points	111	103	251	107	572
Winners	23	20	57	29	129
%Winners	37%	32%	45%	48%	41%
SERVE
Aces	3	2	8	1	14
Double Faults	1	1	8	1	11
1st in	35/57	27/48	88/131	37/52	187/288
% 1st in	61%	56%	67%	71%	65%
1st pts	23/35	20/27	57/88	29/37	129/187
% 1st pts	66%	74%	65%	78%	69%
2nd pts	14/22	14/21	20/43	9/15	57/101
% 2nd pts	64%	67%	47%	60%	56%
Breaks
Won	4	4	5	4	17
Converted	4/5	4/5	5/15	4/6	17/31
Converted %	80%	80%	33%	67%	55%
Conceded	6	1	17	1	25
Saved	5/6	1/1	11/17	0/1	17
Saved %	83%	100%	65%	0%	62%
Times Broken	1	0	6	1	8

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Alex De MinaurDe Minaur (3-2) – H2H and prediction