Alex De Minaur and Brandon Nakashima will square off in the quarter of the Citi Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 4:00 pm on JOHN HARRIS. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alex De Minaur who should win in 3 sets.
Alex De Minaur -> 1.48
Brandon Nakashima -> 2.65
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Prediction and head to head Alex De Minaur vs. Brandon Nakashima
This will be the 2nd time that Alex De Minaur and Brandon Nakashima face off. The head to head is 1-0 for Nakashima (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on hard.
The last time that they played, Nakashima won 6-4 6-0 in the 1st round in Antwerp back in 2021.
Alex De Minaur
33 - 13win/loss
7
6
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 56-24 | 30-11 | 10-5 | 13-6 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 47-21 | 19-6 | 10-5 | 11-9 | 7-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 46-26 | 26-12 | 4-5 | 10-6 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-25 | 19-10 | 9-6 | 12-5 | 7-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 25-25 | 10-10 | 4-5 | 3-7 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 13, De Minaur got to the quarter after beating Bu Yunchaokete 7-6(5) 6-2 and Jiri Lehecka 7-6(4) 6-7(6) 6-4.
In the 3rd round, Alex defeated Lehecka (7-64 6-76 6-4). During the match, De Minaur scored 118 points vs Lehecka’s 101. The Australian was quite aggressive to blast 41 winners.
Talking about the service games, De Minaur scored 8 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Overall, Alex De Minaur was quite efficient on serve to win 85% (41/48) of his 1st serve and 60% (30/50) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. De Minaur broke Lehecka 3 times after converting 33% of his break points (3/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Alex has lost 1 set in this event to win 55% of the points he played.
De Minaur has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 64% of his matches (391-218). 14-5 on hard in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, De Minaur has a compiled 185-91 record in the last years on hard.
De Minaur’s best result of the season was reaching the final in Rotterdam.
The Australian has a composed 32-13 win-loss record in 2025, 14-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Washington
Brandon Nakashima
24 - 20win/loss
33
29
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 33-30 | 19-14 | 6-8 | 2-5 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 61-32 | 24-12 | 13-7 | 15-8 | 9-5 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 21-26 | 9-15 | 3-4 | 8-3 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 41-26 | 17-13 | 5-5 | 9-4 | 10-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-25 | 17-10 | 4-7 | 20-5 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 32, Nakashima got to the quarter after beating Ethan Quinn 6-3 6-4 and Cameron Norrie 7-6(3) 6-3.
In the 3rd round, Brandon had a good straight sets win against Norrie (7-63 6-3). During the match Nakashima scored 75 points vs Norrie’s 60. The American was extremely aggressive to blast 29 winners.
Talking about serving, Nakashima made 12 aces and he was extremely consistent in conceding no double faults for the entire match. Brandon Nakashima was quite effective on serve to win 78% (29/37) of his 1st serve and 70% (16/23) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The American broke Norrie twice after converting 40% of his break points (2/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The American hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 56% of the points he played.
Nakashima’s best result of the current season was reaching the semifinal in Acapulco and Houston.
The American has a composed 24-19 win-loss record in 2025, 12-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Washington
Previously, his best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2021 and 2024. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | De Minaur | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 4 |
| Tot Games | 57 | 41 |
| Pts | 191-159 | 138-110 |
| Total Points | 350 | 248 |
| Winners | 70 | 57 |
| %Winners | 37% | 41% |
Both De Minaur and Nakashima played 2 matches. At the moment, Alex De Minaur surrendered 1 set while Brandon Nakashima hasn’t conceded a set so far. De Minaur has played 1 set more than Nakashima (5 vs 4). Therefore, De Minaur played 16 games more than Nakashima. De Minaur scored 70 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, The American recorded 57 winners (41%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | De Minaur | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 10 | 23 |
| Avg per match | 5 | 11.5 |
| 1st in | 88/165 | 71/117 |
| %1st in | 53% | 61% |
| 1st pts | 70/88 | 57/71 |
| %1st pts | 80% | 80% |
| 2nd pts | 48/77 | 30/46 |
| %2nd pts | 62% | 65% |
De Minaur fired 10 aces (5 per match). Nakashima recorded 23 aces (11.5 per match). De Minaur won 80% points on his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 62% of the points. On the other side, Nakashima won 80% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 65% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | De Minaur | Nakashima |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 6 | 4 |
| Converted | 6/16 | 4/10 |
| % Converted | 38% | 40% |
| Conceded | 8 | 5 |
| Saved | 5 | 5 |
| % Saved | 63% | 100% |
| Times Broken | 3 | 0 |
De Minaur broke his opponents 6 times with a 38% conversion rate. The Australian conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 63% of the break points that he conceded. Brandon broke his opponents 4 times with a 40% conversion rate. Brandon was rock solid on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 5 break points.
| De Minaur | ||||
| R2 Yunchaokete | R3 Lehecka | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-65 6-2 | 7-64 6-76 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 21 | 36 | 57 | |
| pts | 73-58 | 118-101 | 191-159 | |
| Total points | 131 | 219 | 350 | |
| Winners | 29 | 41 | 70 | |
| %Winners | 40% | 35% | 37% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 2 | 8 | 10 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 4 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 40/67 | 48/98 | 88/165 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | 49% | 53% | |
| 1st pts | 29/40 | 41/48 | 70/88 | |
| % 1st pts | 73% | 85% | 80% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/27 | 30/50 | 48/77 | |
| % 2nd pts | 67% | 60% | 62% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 3 | 3 | 6 | |
| Converted | 3/7 | 3/9 | 6/16 | |
| Converted % | 43% | 33% | 38% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 5 | 8 | |
| Saved | 2/3 | 3/5 | 5 | |
| Saved % | 67% | 60% | 64% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
| Nakashima | ||||
| R2 Quinn | R3 Norrie | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-4 | 7-63 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 22 | 41 | |
| pts | 63-50 | 75-60 | 138-110 | |
| Total points | 113 | 135 | 248 | |
| Winners | 28 | 29 | 57 | |
| %Winners | 44% | 39% | 41% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 11 | 12 | 23 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 1st in | 34/57 | 37/60 | 71/117 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | 62% | 61% | |
| 1st pts | 28/34 | 29/37 | 57/71 | |
| % 1st pts | 82% | 78% | 80% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/23 | 16/23 | 30/46 | |
| % 2nd pts | 61% | 70% | 65% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Converted | 2/5 | 2/5 | 4/10 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 40% | 40% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Saved | 3/3 | 2/2 | 5 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Tennis Scores in Washington
- Hugo Nys/Edouard Roger-VasselinNys/Edouard Roger-Vasselin – Matthew Ebden/John PeersEbden/John Peers (4-6 6-3 10-6) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Simone Bolelli/Andrea VavassoriBolelli/Andrea Vavassori – Alexander Erler/Robert GallowayErler/Robert Galloway (6-4 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Corentin MoutetMoutet (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina (4-3) – H2H and prediction
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Brandon NakashimaNakashima (0-1) – H2H and prediction