Brandon Nakashima and Cameron Norrie will clash against each other in the 3rd round of the Citi Open for the 5th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Thursday at 11:00 am on JOHN HARRIS. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Brandon Nakashima who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Brandon Nakashima is the pick to win this match.
Brandon Nakashima -> 1.79
Cameron Norrie -> 2.02
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Prediction and head to head Brandon Nakashima vs. Cameron Norrie
This will be the 5th time that Brandon Nakashima and Cameron Norrie square off. The head to head is 3-1 for Norrie (see full H2H stats), 2-1 on hard.
The last time that they locked horns, Norrie won 6-4 6-4 in the 1st round in Montreal back in 2022.
Brandon Nakashima
24 - 19win/loss
33
29
LLLWLWLLWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 33-30 | 19-14 | 6-8 | 2-5 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 61-32 | 24-12 | 13-7 | 15-8 | 9-5 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 21-26 | 9-15 | 3-4 | 8-3 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 41-26 | 17-13 | 5-5 | 9-4 | 10-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-25 | 17-10 | 4-7 | 20-5 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 32, the American reached the 3rd round after defeating Ethan Quinn 6-3 6-4.
In the 2nd round, The American had a good straight sets win against Quinn (6-3 6-4). During the match, Nakashima scored 63 points vs Quinn’s 50. The American was pretty aggressive to blast 28 winners.
Regarding the service games, Nakashima struck 11 aces and he was very steady in conceding no double faults. Brandon Nakashima was extremely efficient on serve to win 82% (28/34) of his 1st serve and 61% (14/23) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The American broke Quinn twice after converting 40% of his break points (2/5).
Nakashima has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 61% of his matches (249-159). 11-7 on hard in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Nakashima has a compiled 119-76 win-loss record in the last years on hard.
Nakashima’s best result of the current season was reaching the semifinal in Acapulco and Houston.
The American has a compiled 23-19 win-loss record in 2025, 11-7 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Washington
Cameron Norrie
27 - 20win/loss
27
8
LWWWWLWWLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 39-29 | 11-15 | 14-7 | 10-4 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 24-21 | 7-4 | 8-8 | 6-5 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 36-25 | 14-12 | 18-7 | 1-4 | 3-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 49-26 | 26-11 | 11-5 | 6-7 | 6-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 56-25 | 25-11 | 16-5 | 9-7 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 41, Cameron got to the 3rd round after defeating Billy Harris 6-3 7-6(4) and Lorenzo Musetti 3-6 6-2 6-3.
In the 2nd round against Musetti, The Brit recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-2 6-3). During the match Norrie scored 85 points vs Musetti’s 79. Norrie was very aggressive to blast 41 winners.
About the serving games, Norrie bagged 4 aces and he committed only 8 double faults. Cameron Norrie lost the serve twice and he saved 9 break points. Furthermore, Norrie put 60% of his first serves in, winning 75% (41/55) of the points behind his 1st serve and 47% (17/36) on the 2nd serve. Cameron broke Musetti 4 times after converting 57% of his break points (4/7).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Brit has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 52% of the points he played.
Norrie’s best result of the season was reaching the semifinal in Geneva.
The Brit has a compiled 27-19 win-loss record in 2025, 8-8 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Washington
Previously, his best result was reaching the 3rd round in 2021. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Nakashima | Norrie |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 5 |
| Tot Games | 19 | 48 |
| Pts | 63-50 | 156-144 |
| Total Points | 113 | 300 |
| Winners | 28 | 76 |
| %Winners | 44% | 49% |
Nakashima played 1 match while Norrie competed in 2 matches. At the moment, Cameron Norrie lost 1 set while Brandon Nakashima hasn’t conceded a set so far. Nakashima has played 3 set(s) less than Norrie (2 vs 5). Therefore, Nakashima played 29 games less than Norrie. Nakashima scored 28 winners (44% of the total points). On the other side, Cameron managed to score 76 winners (49%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Nakashima | Norrie |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 11 | 7 |
| Avg per match | 11 | 3.5 |
| 1st in | 34/57 | 99/167 |
| %1st in | 60% | 59% |
| 1st pts | 28/34 | 76/99 |
| %1st pts | 82% | 77% |
| 2nd pts | 14/23 | 34/68 |
| %2nd pts | 61% | 50% |
Nakashima fired 11 aces . Norrie recorded 7 aces (3.5 per match). Nakashima won 82% points on his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 61% of the points. On the other side, Norrie won 77% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 50% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Nakashima | Norrie |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 2 | 6 |
| Converted | 2/5 | 6/11 |
| % Converted | 40% | 55% |
| Conceded | 3 | 15 |
| Saved | 3 | 12 |
| % Saved | 100% | 80% |
| Times Broken | 0 | 3 |
Brandon broke his opponent twice with a 40% conversion rate. Brandon quite strong on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 3 break points. Norrie broke his opponents 6 times with a 55% conversion rate. Norrie conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 80% of the break points that he conceded.
| Nakashima | |||
| R2 Quinn |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 19 | |
| pts | 63-50 | 63-50 | |
| Total points | 113 | 113 | |
| Winners | 28 | 28 | |
| %Winners | 44% | 44% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 11 | 11 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 0 | |
| 1st in | 34/57 | 34/57 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 28/34 | 28/34 | |
| % 1st pts | 82% | 82% | |
| 2nd pts | 14/23 | 14/23 | |
| % 2nd pts | 61% | 61% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 2 | 2 | |
| Converted | 2/5 | 2/5 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 40% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 3 | |
| Saved | 3/3 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
| Norrie | ||||
| R1 Harris |
R2 Musetti |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 7-64 | 3-6 6-2 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 26 | 48 | |
| pts | 71-65 | 85-79 | 156-144 | |
| Total points | 136 | 164 | 300 | |
| Winners | 35 | 41 | 76 | |
| %Winners | 49% | 48% | 49% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 3 | 4 | 7 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 8 | 9 | |
| 1st in | 44/76 | 55/91 | 99/167 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 60% | 59% | |
| 1st pts | 35/44 | 41/55 | 76/99 | |
| % 1st pts | 80% | 75% | 77% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/32 | 17/36 | 34/68 | |
| % 2nd pts | 53% | 47% | 50% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 2 | 4 | 6 | |
| Converted | 2/4 | 4/7 | 6/11 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 57% | 55% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 11 | 15 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 9/11 | 12 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 82% | 157% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 2 | 3 | |
Head 2 Head
LLLWLWLLWW
LWWWWLWWLW Tennis Scores in Washington
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Reilly OpelkaOpelka (3-6 7-5 6-1) – See score progression
- Flavio CobolliCobolli – Yoshihito NishiokaNishioka (6-2 7-63) – See score progression
- Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Learner TienTien – Andrey RublevRublev (7-5 6-2) – See score progression
- Jiri LeheckaLehecka – Zachary SvajdaSvajda (6-4 6-75 6-3) – See score progression
- Yibing WuWu – Alexei PopyrinPopyrin (7-5 5-7 6-3) – See score progression
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Bu YunchaoketeYunchaokete (7-65 6-2) – See score progression
- Taylor FritzFritz – Aleksandar VukicVukic (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi – Lorenzo SonegoSonego (7-5 7-5) – See score progression
- Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Ethan QuinnQuinn (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Corentin MoutetMoutet – Alexandre MullerMuller (6-0 6-1) – See score progression
- Daniel EvansEvans – Alex MichelsenMichelsen (6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Cameron NorrieNorrie – Lorenzo MusettiMusetti (3-6 6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Ben SheltonShelton – Mackenzie McdonaldMcdonald (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Gabriel DialloDiallo – Fabian MarozsanMarozsan (6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Aleksandar VukicVukic (6-3 6-2) – See score progression
- Matteo ArnaldiArnaldi – Lorenzo SonegoSonego (7-5 7-5) – See score progression
- Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Learner TienTien – Andrey RublevRublev (7-5 6-2) – See score progression
- Flavio CobolliCobolli – Yoshihito NishiokaNishioka (6-2 7-6(3)) – See score progression
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Reilly OpelkaOpelka (3-6 7-5 6-1) – See score progression
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Bu YunchaoketeYunchaokete (7-6(5) 6-2) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Daniel EvansEvans – Corentin MoutetMoutet (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Daniil MedvedevMedvedev – Yibing WuWu (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Aleksandar KovacevicKovacevic – Frances TiafoeTiafoe (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – Jiri LeheckaLehecka (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Cameron NorrieNorrie (1-3) – H2H and prediction
