Taylor Fritz and Matteo Arnaldi will fight against each other in the 3rd round of the Citi Open for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Thursday at 6:00 pm on JOHN HARRIS. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Taylor Fritz who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Taylor Fritz is the pick to win this match.
Taylor Fritz -> 1.23
Matteo Arnaldi -> 4.2

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Prediction and head to head Taylor Fritz vs. Matteo Arnaldi

This will be the 2nd time that Taylor Fritz and Matteo Arnaldi square off. The head to head is 1-0 for Arnaldi (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on hard.

The last time that they played, Arnaldi won 6-4 4-6 6-3 in the 1st round in Acapulco back in 2024.

Highlights Matteo Arnaldi vs Taylor Fritz – Acapulco 26-February-2024

Taylor Fritz

Taylor Fritz

32 - 12win/loss

Hard
15-5
I Hard
1-1
Clay
3-4
Grass
13-2
Rank
6
High
4
LLWLWLWLWL
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 53-23 31-12 3-4 6-5 13-2 0-0
2024 54-23 23-10 15-7 6-4 10-2 0-0
2023 54-24 35-11 11-6 5-3 3-4 0-0
2022 46-21 24-8 5-3 9-7 8-3 0-0
2021 34-22 20-13 4-5 8-3 2-1 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 4 (career-high), Fritz reached the 3rd round after defeating Aleksandar Vukic 6-3 6-2.

In the 2nd round, Fritz had a good straight sets win against Vukic (6-3 6-2). During the match, Fritz scored 61 points vs Vukic’s 39. The American was exceptionally aggressive to blast 29 winners.

Regarding the service games, Fritz bagged 11 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Taylor Fritz was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 88% (29/33) of his 1st serve and 60% (9/15) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Taylor broke Vukic 3 times after converting 75% of his break points (3/4).

Fritz has a solid record in the last 10 years having won 63% of his matches (393-231). 14-5 on hard in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Fritz has a compiled 223-114 win-loss record in the last years on hard.

His best result of the year was winning the title in Australia where he defeated Hubert Hurkacz in the final 6-4 5-7 7-6(4) and in Stuttgart where he overcame Alexander Zverev in the final 6-3 7-6(0) and in Eastbourne where he beat Jenson Brooksby in the final 7-5 6-1.

Taylor has a compiled 31-12 win-loss record in 2025, 14-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Washington

Washington
Fritz's Record

Matteo Arnaldi

Matteo Arnaldi

17 - 16win/loss

Hard
8-7
I Hard
2-1
Clay
7-6
Grass
0-2
Rank
63
High
30
LLWWWLLWLW
See allSTATS
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 23-26 11-14 7-6 5-4 0-2 0-0
2024 29-26 17-13 10-9 1-2 1-2 0-0
2023 51-26 21-15 23-7 4-3 3-1 0-0
2022 50-35 9-3 37-20 4-11 0-1 0-0
2021 56-24 2-1 51-18 3-5 0-0 0-0
See all years

Ranked no. 44, the Italian reached the 3rd round after defeating Daniel Altmaier 4-6 6-2 7-6(2) and Lorenzo Sonego 7-5 7-5.

In the 2nd round, The Italian had a good straight sets win against Sonego (7-5 7-5). During the match Arnaldi scored 79 points vs Sonego’s 68. Matteo was pretty aggressive to blast 30 winners.

About the serving games, Arnaldi scored 4 aces and he committed only 6 double faults. Overall, Matteo Arnaldi was exceptionally efficient on serve to win 79% (30/38) of his 1st serve and 53% (17/32) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Arnaldi broke Sonego 4 times after converting 50% of his break points (4/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Italian has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.

Arnaldi’s best result of the current season was getting to the semifinal in Delray Beach.

Arnaldi has a composed 17-15 win-loss record in 2025, 8-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).

Washington
Arnaldi's Record

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

T.Fritz
M.Arnaldi
0h:59
0h:59
Time on court​
!
4h:48
4h:48
!
0h:59
0h:59
Last match​
!
2h:06
2h:06
1
1
Match played
!
2
2
17
17
Games Played​
55
55
2
2
Set played​​
5
5
61
61
Total points​
188
188
61
61
Avg point​
94
94
29
29
Winners
65
65
29
29
Avg Winners​
32.5
32.5
48%
48%
Ratio winners
35%
35%
-- Serve --
11
11
Aces
7
7
!
11
11
Avg Aces
3.5
3.5
2
2
Double Faults
8
8
2
2
Avg Double Faults
4
4
29/33
29/33
1st won total​
65/91
65/91
!
88%
88%
1st won %
!
71%
71%
9/15
9/15
2nd won total​
45/74
45/74
60%
60%
2nd won %
!
61%
61%
-- Break Points --
3/4
3/4
BP won
8/23
8/23
3/4
3/4
Avg BP won
4/11.5
4/11.5
!
75%
75%
Won
35%
35%
1
1
Conceded
15
15
1
1
Avg Conceded
7.5
7.5
0
0
Broken
5
5
!
0
0
Avg Broken
2.5
2.5
1
1
Saved
10
10
See Allstats

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Fritz Arnaldi
Match played 1 2
Tot Set 2 5
Tot Games 17 55
Pts 61-39 188-167
Total Points 100 355
Winners 29 65
%Winners 48% 35%

Fritz played 1 match while Arnaldi competed in 2 matches. At the moment, Matteo Arnaldi surrendered 1 set while Taylor Fritz hasn’t lost a set so far. Fritz has played 3 set(s) less than Arnaldi (2 vs 5). Therefore, Fritz played 38 games less than Arnaldi. Fritz scored 29 winners (48% of the total points). On the other side, The Italian blasted 65 winners (35%).

Serve Performance

Serve Fritz Arnaldi
Aces 11 7
Avg per match 11 3.5
1st in 33/48 91/165
%1st in 69% 55%
1st pts 29/33 65/91
%1st pts 88% 71%
2nd pts 9/15 45/74
%2nd pts 60% 61%

Fritz managed to score 11 aces . Arnaldi bagged 7 aces (3.5 per match). Fritz won 88% points behind his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 60% of the points. On the other side, Arnaldi won 71% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 61% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Fritz Arnaldi
Won 3 8
Converted 3/4 8/23
% Converted 75% 35%
Conceded 1 15
Saved 1 10
% Saved 100% 67%
Times Broken 0 5

Fritz broke his opponent 3 times with a 75% conversion rate. The American pretty effective on his serve as he has never conceded a single service game after saving 1 break points. Arnaldi broke his opponents 8 times with a 35% conversion rate. The Italian conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 67% of the break points that he conceded.

Fritz
R2
Vukic		 Total
Score 6-3 6-2
Tot Set 2 2
Tot Games 17 17
pts 61-39 61-39
Total points 100 100
Winners 29 29
%Winners 48% 48%
SERVE
Aces 11 11
Double Faults 2 2
1st in 33/48 33/48
% 1st in 69% 69%
1st pts 29/33 29/33
% 1st pts 88% 88%
2nd pts 9/15 9/15
% 2nd pts 60% 60%
Breaks
Won 3 3
Converted 3/4 3/4
Converted % 75% 75%
Conceded 1 1
Saved 1/1 1
Saved % 100% 100%
Times Broken 0 0
Arnaldi
R1
Altmaier		 R2
Sonego		 Total
Score 4-6 6-2 7-62 7-5 7-5
Tot Set 3 2 5
Tot Games 31 24 55
pts 109-99 79-68 188-167
Total points 208 147 355
Winners 35 30 65
%Winners 32% 38% 35%
SERVE
Aces 3 4 7
Double Faults 2 6 8
1st in 53/95 38/70 91/165
% 1st in 56% 54% 55%
1st pts 35/53 30/38 65/91
% 1st pts 66% 79% 71%
2nd pts 28/42 17/32 45/74
% 2nd pts 67% 53% 61%
Breaks
Won 4 4 8
Converted 4/15 4/8 8/23
Converted % 27% 50% 35%
Conceded 11 4 15
Saved 8/11 2/4 10
Saved % 73% 50% 123%
Times Broken 3 2 5

Tennis Scores in Washington

Upcoming matches in the draw

Fritz
More Stats
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Arnaldi

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