Alex Molcan and Luca Castagnola will square off in the qualifications of the Tampere Challenger for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Monday at 12:00 pm on COURT 7. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Alex Molcan who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Alex Molcan is the pick to win this match.
Alex Molcan -> 1.101
Luca Castagnola -> 6
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Prediction and head to head Alex Molcan vs. Luca Castagnola
There is no head to head record between Alex Molcan and Luca Castagnola since this will be the first time that they will square off in the main tour.
Alex Molcan
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 31-11 | 0-1 | 31-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 13-17 | 3-5 | 10-11 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 26-27 | 10-8 | 13-13 | 3-5 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 29-24 | 7-8 | 18-9 | 1-4 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 65-24 | 8-3 | 42-14 | 13-6 | 2-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 383, Molcan reached the qualifications after defeating Jiri Cizek 6-2 6-2.
In the qualifications, Molcan had a good straight sets win against Cizek (6-2 6-2). During the match, Molcan scored 56 points vs Cizek’s 36. The Slovakian was extremely aggressive to blast 20 winners.
Regarding the service games, Molcan scored 2 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Alex Molcan was extremely effective on serve to win 77% (20/26) of his 1st serve and 58% (11/19) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. Alex broke Cizek 5 times after converting 71% of his break points (5/7).
Molcan has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 61% of his matches (275-178). 27-7 on clay in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Molcan has an aggregate 181-102 win-loss record in the last years on clay.
Molcan’s best result of the year was reaching the final in M15 Antalya and M25 Reggio Emilia.
The Slovakian has an aggregate 27-8 win-loss record in 2025, 27-7 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Tampere Challenger
Molcan has never competed in this tournament before.
Luca Castagnola
22 - 19win/loss
575
575
LWWLWLWLLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 25-22 | 10-7 | 13-13 | 2-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 28-30 | 14-11 | 10-17 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 41-31 | 10-6 | 31-25 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 50-31 | 5-3 | 44-27 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 23-20 | 14-9 | 9-11 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 582 (career-high), Luca reached the qualifications after defeating Ivan Denisov 4-6 6-4 6-4.
In the qualifications against Denisov, Castagnola recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 6-4 6-4). During the match Castagnola scored 107 points vs Denisov’s 100. Luca was very aggressive to blast 43 winners.
About the serving games, Castagnola was unable to score even 1 ace for the entire match and he committed only 3 double faults. Luca Castagnola lost the serve 3 times and he saved 7 break points. Furthermore, Castagnola put 67% of his first serves in, winning 65% (43/66) of the points behind his 1st serve and 56% (18/32) on the 2nd serve. The Italian broke Denisov 4 times after converting 40% of his break points (4/10).
Luca’s best result of the current year was reaching the final in M15 Monastir.
Luca has a compiled 22-19 win-loss record in 2025, 12-11 on clay (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Molcan | Castagnola |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 |
| Tot Games | 16 | 30 |
| Pts | 56-36 | 107-100 |
| Total Points | 92 | 207 |
| Winners | 20 | 43 |
| %Winners | 36% | 40% |
Both Molcan and Castagnola played 1 match. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.At the moment, Luca Castagnola surrendered 1 set while Alex Molcan hasn’t conceded a set so far. Molcan has played 1 set(s) less than Castagnola (2 vs 3). Therefore, Molcan played 14 games less than Castagnola. The Slovakian scored 20 winners (36% of the total points). On the other side, Luca blasted 43 winners (40%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Molcan | Castagnola |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 2 | 0 |
| Avg per match | 2 | 0 |
| 1st in | 26/45 | 66/98 |
| %1st in | 58% | 67% |
| 1st pts | 20/26 | 43/66 |
| %1st pts | 77% | 65% |
| 2nd pts | 11/19 | 18/32 |
| %2nd pts | 58% | 56% |
Molcan blasted 2 aces . Castagnola didn’t manage to fire a single ace to far. Molcan won 77% points behind his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 58% of the points. On the other side, Castagnola won 65% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Molcan | Castagnola |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 5 | 4 |
| Converted | 5/7 | 4/10 |
| % Converted | 71% | 40% |
| Conceded | 1 | 10 |
| Saved | 0 | 7 |
| % Saved | 0% | 70% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 3 |
Molcan broke his opponent 5 times with a 71% conversion rate. Molcan conceded his serve once and he saved 0% of the break points that he conceded. Luca broke his opponent 4 times with a 40% conversion rate. The Italian conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 70% of the break points that he conceded.
| Molcan | |||
| Q1 Cizek |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 16 | 16 | |
| pts | 56-36 | 56-36 | |
| Total points | 92 | 92 | |
| Winners | 20 | 20 | |
| %Winners | 36% | 36% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 2 | 2 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 26/45 | 26/45 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 58% | |
| 1st pts | 20/26 | 20/26 | |
| % 1st pts | 77% | 77% | |
| 2nd pts | 11/19 | 11/19 | |
| % 2nd pts | 58% | 58% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 5 | 5 | |
| Converted | 5/7 | 5/7 | |
| Converted % | 71% | 71% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1 | |
| Saved | 0/1 | 0 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 0% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | |
| Castagnola | |||
| Q1 Denisov |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-4 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 30 | 30 | |
| pts | 107-100 | 107-100 | |
| Total points | 207 | 207 | |
| Winners | 43 | 43 | |
| %Winners | 40% | 40% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 0 | 0 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | |
| 1st in | 66/98 | 66/98 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 67% | |
| 1st pts | 43/66 | 43/66 | |
| % 1st pts | 65% | 65% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/32 | 18/32 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | 56% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 4 | 4 | |
| Converted | 4/10 | 4/10 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 40% | |
| Conceded | 10 | 10 | |
| Saved | 7/10 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 70% | 70% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 3 | |
Head 2 Head
LWLWWLWWLW
LWWLWLWLLW 
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