Denis Shapovalov and Aleksandar Kovacevic will play each other in the final of the Mifel Tennis Open for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 8:00 pm on ESTADIO MEXTENIS. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Denis Shapovalov who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Denis Shapovalov is the pick to win this match.
Denis Shapovalov -> 1.37
Aleksandar Kovacevic -> 3.1
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Prediction and head to head Denis Shapovalov vs. Aleksandar Kovacevic
There is no head to head record between Denis Shapovalov and Aleksandar Kovacevic since this will be the first time that they will square off in the main tour.
Denis Shapovalov
19 - 14win/loss
28
10
WWWWLLWLLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 19-14 | 11-6 | 2-5 | 5-0 | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 33-25 | 9-10 | 5-6 | 16-6 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 13-13 | 6-6 | 3-3 | 0-1 | 4-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 34-26 | 22-12 | 4-4 | 7-6 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 30-23 | 11-11 | 7-6 | 4-3 | 8-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 33, Shapovalov reached the final after beating Govind Nanda 6-1 6-2, Tristan Schoolkate 6-3 6-2 and Adam Walton 6-2 6-2.
In the semifinal, The Canadian had a good straight sets win against Walton (6-2 6-2). During the match, Shapovalov scored 53 points vs Walton’s 36. Shapovalov was pretty aggressive to blast 22 winners.
Regarding the service games, Shapovalov recorded 7 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Denis Shapovalov was quite effective on serve to win 76% (22/29) of his 1st serve and 61% (14/23) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Shapovalov was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Walton 4 times.
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Canadian hasn’t dropped yet a set in this competition to win 61% of the points he played.
Shapovalov has winning match record in the last 10 years having won 59% of his matches (312-215). 10-6 on hard in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Shapovalov has an aggregate 142-92 record in the last years on hard.
His best result of the current season was winning the title in Dallas where he beat Casper Ruud in the final 7-6(5) 6-3.
Shapovalov has a composed 18-14 win-loss record in 2025, 10-6 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Los Cabos
The Canadian has never competed in this tournament before.
Aleksandar Kovacevic
28 - 20win/loss
66
66
LWWWWLLWLL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 28-20 | 11-6 | 4-7 | 12-3 | 1-4 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 29-35 | 20-17 | 5-8 | 2-6 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 43-27 | 34-15 | 0-5 | 7-2 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 41-31 | 22-18 | 4-4 | 15-9 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 20-17 | 11-10 | 2-3 | 7-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 76, the American reached the final after defeating Hady Habib 6-1 3-6 6-3, Luis Carlos Alvarez 7-5 6-4, Juan Pablo Ficovich 6-3 6-1 and Andrey Rublev 3-6 6-4 6-4.
In the semifinal against Rublev, The American recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-4 6-4).During the match Kovacevic scored less points (3) than Rublev. In fact, the world no. 33 won 95 points vs Rublev’s. That means that Kovacevic was more focused during the important points. Aleksandar was very aggressive to blast 33 winners.
About the serving games, Kovacevic made 5 aces and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Aleksandar Kovacevic lost the serve 3 times and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Kovacevic put 53% of his first serves in, winning 66% (33/50) of the points behind his 1st serve and 56% (25/45) on the 2nd serve. Aleksandar broke Rublev 3 times after converting 21% of his break points (3/14).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Kovacevic has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
His best result of the season was conquering the title the Oeiras 2 Challenger where he defeated Zsombor Piros in the final 6-4 7-6(4) and the Cap Cana Challenger where he defeated Damir Dzumhur in the final 6-2 6-3.
Kovacevic has a compiled 28-19 win-loss record in 2025, 11-5 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Los Cabos
Previously, his best result was reaching the quarter in 2023 and 2024. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Shapovalov | Kovacevic |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 4 |
| Tot Set | 6 | 10 |
| Tot Games | 48 | 92 |
| Pts | 172-112 | 318-273 |
| Total Points | 284 | 591 |
| Winners | 63 | 109 |
| %Winners | 37% | 34% |
Shapovalov played 3 matches while Kovacevic competed in 4 matches. At the moment, Aleksandar Kovacevic surrendered 2 sets while Denis Shapovalov hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Shapovalov has played 4 set(s) less than Kovacevic (6 vs 10). Therefore, Shapovalov played 44 games less than Kovacevic. Shapovalov scored 63 winners (37% of the total points). On the other side, Aleksandar fired 109 winners (34%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Shapovalov | Kovacevic |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 21 | 26 |
| Avg per match | 7 | 6.5 |
| 1st in | 87/154 | 146/282 |
| %1st in | 56% | 52% |
| 1st pts | 63/87 | 109/146 |
| %1st pts | 72% | 75% |
| 2nd pts | 43/67 | 75/136 |
| %2nd pts | 64% | 55% |
Shapovalov managed to score 21 aces (7 per match). Kovacevic blasted 26 aces (6.5 per match). Shapovalov won 72% points on his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 64% of the points. On the other side, Kovacevic won 75% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 55% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Shapovalov | Kovacevic |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 13 | 16 |
| Converted | 13/15 | 16/46 |
| % Converted | 87% | 35% |
| Conceded | 10 | 17 |
| Saved | 8 | 9 |
| % Saved | 80% | 53% |
| Times Broken | 2 | 8 |
The Canadian broke his opponents 13 times with a 87% conversion rate. Denis dropped his serve twice and he saved 80% of the break points that he conceded. Kovacevic broke his opponents 16 times with a 35% conversion rate. Aleksandar conceded his serve 8 times and he saved 53% of the break points that he conceded.
| Shapovalov | |||||
| R2 Nanda |
1/4 Schoolkate |
1/2 Walton |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 6-2 | 6-3 6-2 | 6-2 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 15 | 17 | 16 | 48 | |
| pts | 56-31 | 63-45 | 53-36 | 172-112 | |
| Total points | 87 | 108 | 89 | 284 | |
| Winners | 16 | 25 | 22 | 63 | |
| %Winners | 29% | 40% | 42% | 37% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 4 | 10 | 7 | 21 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 4 | 4 | 11 | |
| 1st in | 22/47 | 36/55 | 29/52 | 87/154 | |
| % 1st in | 47% | 65% | 56% | 56% | |
| 1st pts | 16/22 | 25/36 | 22/29 | 63/87 | |
| % 1st pts | 73% | 69% | 76% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/25 | 12/19 | 14/23 | 43/67 | |
| % 2nd pts | 68% | 63% | 61% | 64% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 5 | 4 | 4 | 13 | |
| Converted | 5/7 | 4/4 | 4/4 | 13/15 | |
| Converted % | 71% | 100% | 100% | 87% | |
| Conceded | 4 | 2 | 4 | 10 | |
| Saved | 3/4 | 1/2 | 4/4 | 8 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 50% | 100% | 75% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | |
| Kovacevic | ||||||
| R1 Habib |
R2 Carlos |
1/4 Pablo Ficovich |
1/2 Rublev |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 3-6 6-3 | 7-5 6-4 | 6-3 6-1 | 3-6 6-4 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | |
| Tot Games | 25 | 22 | 16 | 29 | 92 | |
| pts | 85-67 | 69-60 | 69-48 | 95-98 | 318-273 | |
| Total points | 152 | 129 | 117 | 193 | 591 | |
| Winners | 31 | 24 | 21 | 33 | 109 | |
| %Winners | 36% | 35% | 30% | 35% | 34% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 10 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 26 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 14 | |
| 1st in | 39/71 | 31/65 | 26/51 | 50/95 | 146/282 | |
| % 1st in | 55% | 48% | 51% | 53% | 52% | |
| 1st pts | 31/39 | 24/31 | 21/26 | 33/50 | 109/146 | |
| % 1st pts | 79% | 77% | 81% | 66% | 75% | |
| 2nd pts | 20/32 | 17/34 | 13/25 | 25/45 | 75/136 | |
| % 2nd pts | 63% | 50% | 52% | 56% | 55% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 16 | |
| Converted | 4/12 | 4/7 | 5/13 | 3/14 | 16/46 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 57% | 38% | 21% | 35% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 17 | |
| Saved | 3/5 | 0/2 | 3/4 | 3/6 | 9 | |
| Saved % | 60% | 0% | 75% | 50% | 62% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | |
Head 2 Head
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Upcoming matches in the draw
- Aleksandar KovacevicKovacevic – Denis ShapovalovShapovalov (0-0) – H2H and prediction
