H2H, prediction of Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Jesper De Jong in Bastad with odds, preview, pick | 19th July 2025

PREVIEW. Bastad. Ugo Carabelli and De Jong will play each other in the semifinal of the Nordea Open. See the prediction, H2H stats, odds, and preview of their next match on Saturday the 19th of July

Prediction and head to head Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs. Jesper De Jong

Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Jesper De Jong will square off in the semifinal of the Nordea Open for the 7th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 1:00 pm on CENTRE COURT. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Camilo Ugo Carabelli who should win in 3 sets.

See updated oddsAs per the initial odds, Camilo Ugo Carabelli is the pick to win this match.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli -> 1.9
Jesper De Jong -> 1.9

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Soccer Tonic Predictions

Prediction and head to head Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs. Jesper De Jong

This will be the 7th time that Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Jesper De Jong clash against each other. The head to head is 3-3 (see full H2H stats), 3-2 on clay.

The last time that they squared off, Ugo Carabelli won 7-6(3) 3-6 6-4 in the final in the Villa Maria Challenger back in 2024.

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Camilo Ugo Carabelli

28 - 18win/loss

Hard
3-3
I Hard
0-0
Clay
25-12
Grass
0-3
Rank
51
High
51
WLWWWLLLLL
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 29-19 3-3 26-13 0-0 0-3 0-0
2024 58-30 6-5 52-24 0-0 0-1 0-0
2023 41-26 0-2 41-24 0-0 0-0 0-0
2022 39-24 3-4 36-19 0-0 0-1 0-0
2021 43-24 4-2 39-22 0-0 0-0 0-0

Ranked no. 59, Ugo Carabelli reached the semifinal after beating Cristian Garin 6-4 6-4, Botic Van De Zandschulp 7-6(3) 5-7 6-3 and Filip Misolic 6-3 7-5.

In the quarter, The Argentine had a good straight sets win against Misolic (6-3 7-5). During the match, Ugo Carabelli scored 74 points vs Misolic’s 60. The Argentine was pretty aggressive to blast 32 winners.

Regarding the service games, Ugo Carabelli managed to score 7 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Camilo Ugo Carabelli lost the serve twice and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Ugo Carabelli put 72% of his first serves in, winning 78% (32/41) of the points behind his 1st serve and 38% (6/16) on the 2nd serve. The Argentine broke Misolic 5 times after converting 42% of his break points (5/12).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Ugo Carabelli has dropped 1 set in this tournament to conquer 52% of the points he played.

Ugo Carabelli has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 63% of his matches (374-216). 25-12 on clay in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this competition, Ugo Carabelli has a compiled 338-180 record in the last years on clay.

His best result of the season was winning the title the Rosario Challenger where he defeated Hugo Dellien in the final 3-6 6-3 6-2.

The Argentine has an aggregate 28-18 win-loss record in 2025, 25-12 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Bastad

Ugo Carabelli
Bastad
Ugo Carabelli's Record

Jesper De Jong

Jesper De Jong
Jesper De Jong

23 - 21win/loss

Hard
1-3
I Hard
3-2
Clay
17-11
Grass
2-5
Rank
83
High
83
WWLWWWWLWL
Year Total Hard Clay I.hard Grass Carpet
2025 26-22 1-3 20-12 3-2 2-5 0-0
2024 48-25 12-5 33-15 2-4 1-1 0-0
2023 52-23 19-4 30-14 0-2 3-3 0-0
2022 24-28 12-7 10-13 2-5 0-3 0-0
2021 32-29 2-6 27-18 3-5 0-0 0-0

Ranked no. 106, De Jong got to the semifinal after beating William Rejchtman Vinciguerra 6-3 6-2, Vit Kopriva 7-6(3) 7-5 and Tallon Griekspoor 4-6 7-6(3) 6-3.

In the quarter against Griekspoor, The Dutch recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 7-63 6-3). During the match De Jong scored 107 points vs Griekspoor’s 100. Jesper was quite aggressive to blast 40 winners.

About the serving games, De Jong made 13 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Jesper De Jong was exceptionally effective on serve to win 77% (40/52) of his 1st serve and 52% (24/46) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve 3 times. De Jong broke Griekspoor 4 times after converting 50% of his break points (4/8).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Dutch has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.

De Jong’s best result of the current season was reaching the final in the Murcia Challenger.

The Dutch has an aggregate 23-21 win-loss record in 2025, 17-11 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Bastad

De Jong has never competed in this tournament before.

De Jong
Bastad
De Jong's Record
Bonus
Soccer Tonic Predictions

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

C.Ugo Carabelli
J.De Jong
6h:29
6h:29
Time on court​
6h:29
6h:29
1h:36
1h:36
Last match​
!
2h:40
2h:40
3
3
Match played
3
3
75
75
Games Played​
74
74
7
7
Set played​​
7
7
263
263
Total points​
272
272
87.7
87.7
Avg point​
90.7
90.7
118
118
Winners
94
94
39.3
39.3
Avg Winners​
31.3
31.3
45%
45%
Ratio winners
35%
35%
-- Serve --
16
16
Aces
29
29
5.3
5.3
Avg Aces
9.7
9.7
7
7
Double Faults
9
9
2.3
2.3
Avg Double Faults
3
3
118/175
118/175
1st won total​
94/122
94/122
67%
67%
1st won %
!
77%
77%
36/77
36/77
2nd won total​
58/101
58/101
47%
47%
2nd won %
57%
57%
-- Break Points --
12/30
12/30
BP won
10/31
10/31
4/10
4/10
Avg BP won
3.3/10.3
3.3/10.3
40%
40%
Won
32%
32%
29
29
Conceded
14
14
9.7
9.7
Avg Conceded
4.7
4.7
7
7
Broken
5
5
2.3
2.3
Avg Broken
1.7
1.7
22
22
Saved
9
9

Matches, sets, games and points

Points Ugo Carabelli De Jong
Match played 3 3
Tot Set 7 7
Tot Games 75 74
Pts 263-243 272-238
Total Points 506 510
Winners 118 94
%Winners 45% 35%

Both Ugo Carabelli and De Jong played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Camilo Ugo Carabelli surrendered 1 set, while Jesper De Jong conceded 1 set. Talking about their workload, Ugo Carabelli and De Jong have played the same amount of sets 7. However, Ugo Carabelli played 1 game more than De Jong. Camilo scored 118 winners (45% of the total points). On the other side, De Jong recorded 94 winners (35%).

Serve Performance

Serve Ugo Carabelli De Jong
Aces 16 29
Avg per match 5.3 9.7
1st in 175/252 122/223
%1st in 69% 55%
1st pts 118/175 94/122
%1st pts 67% 77%
2nd pts 36/77 58/101
%2nd pts 47% 57%

Ugo Carabelli fired 16 aces (5.3 per match). De Jong bagged 29 aces (9.7 per match). Ugo Carabelli won 67% points behind his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 47% of the points. On the other side, De Jong won 77% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 57% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks Ugo Carabelli De Jong
Won 12 10
Converted 12/30 10/31
% Converted 40% 32%
Conceded 29 14
Saved 22 9
% Saved 76% 64%
Times Broken 7 5

Ugo Carabelli broke his opponents 12 times with a 40% conversion rate. Camilo surrendered his serve 7 times and he saved 76% of the break points that he conceded. Jesper broke his opponents 10 times with a 32% conversion rate. The Dutch conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 64% of the break points that he conceded.

Ugo Carabelli
R1
Garin
R2
Van De Zandschulp
1/4
Misolic
Total
Score 6-4 6-4 7-63 5-7 6-3 6-3 7-5
Tot Set 2 3 2 7
Tot Games 20 34 21 75
pts 80-74 109-109 74-60 263-243
Total points 154 218 134 506
Winners 27 59 32 118
%Winners 34% 54% 43% 45%
SERVE
Aces 1 8 7 16
Double Faults 2 2 3 7
1st in 46/71 88/124 41/57 175/252
% 1st in 65% 71% 72% 69%
1st pts 27/46 59/88 32/41 118/175
% 1st pts 59% 67% 78% 67%
2nd pts 12/25 18/36 6/16 36/77
% 2nd pts 48% 50% 38% 47%
Breaks
Won 5 2 5 12
Converted 5/14 2/4 5/12 12/30
Converted % 36% 50% 42% 40%
Conceded 12 13 4 29
Saved 9/12 11/13 2/4 22
Saved % 75% 85% 50% 70%
Times Broken 3 2 2 7
De Jong
R1
Rejchtman Vinciguerra
R2
Kopriva
1/4
Griekspoor
Total
Score 6-3 6-2 7-63 7-5 4-6 7-63 6-3
Tot Set 2 2 3 7
Tot Games 17 25 32 74
pts 69-46 96-92 107-100 272-238
Total points 115 188 207 510
Winners 23 31 40 94
%Winners 33% 32% 37% 35%
SERVE
Aces 8 8 13 29
Double Faults 1 5 3 9
1st in 28/49 42/76 52/98 122/223
% 1st in 57% 55% 53% 55%
1st pts 23/28 31/42 40/52 94/122
% 1st pts 82% 74% 77% 77%
2nd pts 15/21 19/34 24/46 58/101
% 2nd pts 71% 56% 52% 57%
Breaks
Won 3 3 4 10
Converted 3/6 3/17 4/8 10/31
Converted % 50% 18% 50% 32%
Conceded 0 4 10 14
Saved 0/0 2/4 7/10 9
Saved % 50% 70% 40%
Times Broken 0 2 3 5

Head 2 Head

Win Loss
Ugo Carabelli
WLWWWLLLLL
De Jong
WWLWWWWLWL
2025 2024 2023
29 - 19
26 - 22
3-3
Hard
1-3
0-0
I Hard
3-2
26-13
Clay
20-12
0-3
Grass
2-5

Tennis Scores in Bastad

  • Adam Pavlasek/Jan ZielinskiPavlasek/Jan ZielinskiTheo Arribage/Tomas Barrios VeraArribage/Tomas Barrios Vera (6-3 3-6 10-7) – Stats, scores, rankings
See Updated Draw
Soccer Tonic Predictions
Bonus

Upcoming matches in the draw