
Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Jesper De Jong will square off in the semifinal of the Nordea Open for the 7th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 1:00 pm on CENTRE COURT. In the following paragraphs, you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Camilo Ugo Carabelli who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Camilo Ugo Carabelli is the pick to win this match.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli -> 1.9
Jesper De Jong -> 1.9
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Prediction and head to head Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs. Jesper De Jong
This will be the 7th time that Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Jesper De Jong clash against each other. The head to head is 3-3 (see full H2H stats), 3-2 on clay.
The last time that they squared off, Ugo Carabelli won 7-6(3) 3-6 6-4 in the final in the Villa Maria Challenger back in 2024.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli


28 - 18win/loss
51
51

Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 | 29-19 | 3-3 | 26-13 | 0-0 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
2024 | 58-30 | 6-5 | 52-24 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
2023 | 41-26 | 0-2 | 41-24 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
2022 | 39-24 | 3-4 | 36-19 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
2021 | 43-24 | 4-2 | 39-22 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 59, Ugo Carabelli reached the semifinal after beating Cristian Garin 6-4 6-4, Botic Van De Zandschulp 7-6(3) 5-7 6-3 and Filip Misolic 6-3 7-5.
In the quarter, The Argentine had a good straight sets win against Misolic (6-3 7-5). During the match, Ugo Carabelli scored 74 points vs Misolic’s 60. The Argentine was pretty aggressive to blast 32 winners.
Regarding the service games, Ugo Carabelli managed to score 7 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Camilo Ugo Carabelli lost the serve twice and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Ugo Carabelli put 72% of his first serves in, winning 78% (32/41) of the points behind his 1st serve and 38% (6/16) on the 2nd serve. The Argentine broke Misolic 5 times after converting 42% of his break points (5/12).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Ugo Carabelli has dropped 1 set in this tournament to conquer 52% of the points he played.
Ugo Carabelli has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 63% of his matches (374-216). 25-12 on clay in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this competition, Ugo Carabelli has a compiled 338-180 record in the last years on clay.
His best result of the season was winning the title the Rosario Challenger where he defeated Hugo Dellien in the final 3-6 6-3 6-2.
The Argentine has an aggregate 28-18 win-loss record in 2025, 25-12 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Bastad
Jesper De Jong


23 - 21win/loss
83
83

Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025 | 26-22 | 1-3 | 20-12 | 3-2 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
2024 | 48-25 | 12-5 | 33-15 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
2023 | 52-23 | 19-4 | 30-14 | 0-2 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
2022 | 24-28 | 12-7 | 10-13 | 2-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
2021 | 32-29 | 2-6 | 27-18 | 3-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 106, De Jong got to the semifinal after beating William Rejchtman Vinciguerra 6-3 6-2, Vit Kopriva 7-6(3) 7-5 and Tallon Griekspoor 4-6 7-6(3) 6-3.
In the quarter against Griekspoor, The Dutch recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (4-6 7-63 6-3). During the match De Jong scored 107 points vs Griekspoor’s 100. Jesper was quite aggressive to blast 40 winners.
About the serving games, De Jong made 13 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Jesper De Jong was exceptionally effective on serve to win 77% (40/52) of his 1st serve and 52% (24/46) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve 3 times. De Jong broke Griekspoor 4 times after converting 50% of his break points (4/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Dutch has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.
De Jong’s best result of the current season was reaching the final in the Murcia Challenger.
The Dutch has an aggregate 23-21 win-loss record in 2025, 17-11 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Bastad
De Jong has never competed in this tournament before.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
Points | Ugo Carabelli | De Jong |
---|---|---|
Match played | 3 | 3 |
Tot Set | 7 | 7 |
Tot Games | 75 | 74 |
Pts | 263-243 | 272-238 |
Total Points | 506 | 510 |
Winners | 118 | 94 |
%Winners | 45% | 35% |
Both Ugo Carabelli and De Jong played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Camilo Ugo Carabelli surrendered 1 set, while Jesper De Jong conceded 1 set. Talking about their workload, Ugo Carabelli and De Jong have played the same amount of sets 7. However, Ugo Carabelli played 1 game more than De Jong. Camilo scored 118 winners (45% of the total points). On the other side, De Jong recorded 94 winners (35%).
Serve Performance
Serve | Ugo Carabelli | De Jong |
---|---|---|
Aces | 16 | 29 |
Avg per match | 5.3 | 9.7 |
1st in | 175/252 | 122/223 |
%1st in | 69% | 55% |
1st pts | 118/175 | 94/122 |
%1st pts | 67% | 77% |
2nd pts | 36/77 | 58/101 |
%2nd pts | 47% | 57% |
Ugo Carabelli fired 16 aces (5.3 per match). De Jong bagged 29 aces (9.7 per match). Ugo Carabelli won 67% points behind his first serve. He quite strong on his second serve to win 47% of the points. On the other side, De Jong won 77% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 57% of the points.
How they played the important points
Breaks | Ugo Carabelli | De Jong |
---|---|---|
Won | 12 | 10 |
Converted | 12/30 | 10/31 |
% Converted | 40% | 32% |
Conceded | 29 | 14 |
Saved | 22 | 9 |
% Saved | 76% | 64% |
Times Broken | 7 | 5 |
Ugo Carabelli broke his opponents 12 times with a 40% conversion rate. Camilo surrendered his serve 7 times and he saved 76% of the break points that he conceded. Jesper broke his opponents 10 times with a 32% conversion rate. The Dutch conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 64% of the break points that he conceded.
Ugo Carabelli | |||||
R1 Garin |
R2 Van De Zandschulp |
1/4 Misolic |
Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Score | 6-4 6-4 | 7-63 5-7 6-3 | 6-3 7-5 | ||
Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | |
Tot Games | 20 | 34 | 21 | 75 | |
pts | 80-74 | 109-109 | 74-60 | 263-243 | |
Total points | 154 | 218 | 134 | 506 | |
Winners | 27 | 59 | 32 | 118 | |
%Winners | 34% | 54% | 43% | 45% | |
SERVE | |||||
Aces | 1 | 8 | 7 | 16 | |
Double Faults | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | |
1st in | 46/71 | 88/124 | 41/57 | 175/252 | |
% 1st in | 65% | 71% | 72% | 69% | |
1st pts | 27/46 | 59/88 | 32/41 | 118/175 | |
% 1st pts | 59% | 67% | 78% | 67% | |
2nd pts | 12/25 | 18/36 | 6/16 | 36/77 | |
% 2nd pts | 48% | 50% | 38% | 47% | |
Breaks | |||||
Won | 5 | 2 | 5 | 12 | |
Converted | 5/14 | 2/4 | 5/12 | 12/30 | |
Converted % | 36% | 50% | 42% | 40% | |
Conceded | 12 | 13 | 4 | 29 | |
Saved | 9/12 | 11/13 | 2/4 | 22 | |
Saved % | 75% | 85% | 50% | 70% | |
Times Broken | 3 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
De Jong | |||||
R1 Rejchtman Vinciguerra |
R2 Kopriva |
1/4 Griekspoor |
Total | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Score | 6-3 6-2 | 7-63 7-5 | 4-6 7-63 6-3 | ||
Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | |
Tot Games | 17 | 25 | 32 | 74 | |
pts | 69-46 | 96-92 | 107-100 | 272-238 | |
Total points | 115 | 188 | 207 | 510 | |
Winners | 23 | 31 | 40 | 94 | |
%Winners | 33% | 32% | 37% | 35% | |
SERVE | |||||
Aces | 8 | 8 | 13 | 29 | |
Double Faults | 1 | 5 | 3 | 9 | |
1st in | 28/49 | 42/76 | 52/98 | 122/223 | |
% 1st in | 57% | 55% | 53% | 55% | |
1st pts | 23/28 | 31/42 | 40/52 | 94/122 | |
% 1st pts | 82% | 74% | 77% | 77% | |
2nd pts | 15/21 | 19/34 | 24/46 | 58/101 | |
% 2nd pts | 71% | 56% | 52% | 57% | |
Breaks | |||||
Won | 3 | 3 | 4 | 10 | |
Converted | 3/6 | 3/17 | 4/8 | 10/31 | |
Converted % | 50% | 18% | 50% | 32% | |
Conceded | 0 | 4 | 10 | 14 | |
Saved | 0/0 | 2/4 | 7/10 | 9 | |
Saved % | – | 50% | 70% | 40% | |
Times Broken | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
Head 2 Head



Tennis Scores in Bastad
- Adam Pavlasek/Jan ZielinskiPavlasek/Jan Zielinski – Theo Arribage/Tomas Barrios VeraArribage/Tomas Barrios Vera (6-3 3-6 10-7) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Camilo Ugo CarabelliUgo Carabelli – Jesper De JongDe Jong (3-3) – H2H and prediction
- Francisco CerundoloCerundolo – (2-1) – H2H and prediction