Sebastian Baez and Luciano Darderi will face off in the quarter of the Nordea Open for the 6th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 4:00 pm on CENTRE COURT. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Sebastian Baez who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Sebastian Baez is the pick to win this match.
Sebastian Baez -> 1.78
Luciano Darderi -> 2.04
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Prediction and head to head Sebastian Baez vs. Luciano Darderi
This will be the 6th time that Sebastian Baez and Luciano Darderi clash against each other. The head to head is 4-1 for Baez (see full H2H stats), 3-1 on clay.
The last time that they played, Baez won 6-4 6-7(3) 6-0 7-6(4) in the 1st round in at the U.S. Open back in 2024.
Highlights Sebastian Baez vs Luciano Darderi – U.S. Open 26-August-2024
Sebastian Baez
17 - 16win/loss
45
18
LLWLLLLLLL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 17-18 | 0-4 | 17-13 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 31-28 | 5-9 | 26-11 | 0-5 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-27 | 9-7 | 22-13 | 1-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 35-32 | 6-12 | 27-12 | 0-6 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 56-16 | 2-1 | 52-12 | 2-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 37, the Argentine reached the quarter after beating Nicolai Budkov Kjaer 3-6 6-2 7-5.
In the 2nd round against Budkov Kjaer, Baez recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-2 7-5). During the match, Baez scored 94 points vs Budkov Kjaer’s 88. Sebastian was quite aggressive to blast 36 winners.
Talking about the service games, Baez scored just 1 ace in the course of the match and he committed only 2 double faults. Sebastian Baez lost the serve 4 times and he saved 3 break points. Furthermore, Baez put 70% of his first serves in, winning 63% (36/57) of the points behind his 1st serve and 50% (12/24) on the 2nd serve. Baez broke Budkov Kjaer 6 times after converting 40% of his break points (6/15).
Baez has a solid match record in the last 10 years having won 62% of his matches (268-165). 17-11 on clay in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Baez has an overall 229-100 win-loss record in the last years on clay.
His best result of the current season was conquering the title in Rio de Janeiro where he beat Alexandre Muller in the final 6-2 6-3.
Sebastian has an aggregate 17-16 win-loss record in 2025, 17-11 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Bastad
Luciano Darderi
21 - 20win/loss
35
32
WWWWWWWWWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 28-20 | 1-5 | 25-11 | 0-0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 38-31 | 1-9 | 34-15 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 48-31 | 3-3 | 45-27 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 37-25 | 0-1 | 37-24 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 48-19 | 20-6 | 27-12 | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 55, Darderi got to the quarter after defeating Raphael Collignon 6-2 2-6 6-2 and Elias Ymer 6-2 6-2.
In the 2nd round, Darderi had a good straight sets win against Ymer (6-2 6-2). During the match Darderi scored 59 points vs Ymer’s 40. Darderi was quite aggressive to blast 20 winners.
Talking about serving, Darderi struck 8 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Luciano Darderi was exceptionally effective on serve to win 74% (20/27) of his 1st serve and 70% (16/23) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Luciano broke Ymer 4 times after converting 44% of his break points (4/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Italian has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.
His best result of the year was winning the title in Marrakech where he beat Tallon Griekspoor in the final 7-6(3) 7-6(4).
The Italian has an aggregate 21-20 win-loss record in 2025, 18-11 on clay (See FULL STATS).
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Baez | Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 3 | 5 |
| Tot Games | 29 | 40 |
| Pts | 94-88 | 150-121 |
| Total Points | 182 | 271 |
| Winners | 36 | 57 |
| %Winners | 38% | 38% |
Baez played 1 match while Darderi competed in 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Sebastian Baez conceded 1 set, while Luciano Darderi surrendered 1 set. Baez has played 2 set(s) less than Darderi (3 vs 5). Therefore, Baez played 11 games less than Darderi. Sebastian scored 36 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Darderi fired 57 winners (38%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Baez | Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 1 | 13 |
| Avg per match | 1 | 6.5 |
| 1st in | 57/81 | 82/141 |
| %1st in | 70% | 58% |
| 1st pts | 36/57 | 57/82 |
| %1st pts | 63% | 70% |
| 2nd pts | 12/24 | 36/59 |
| %2nd pts | 50% | 61% |
Baez recorded 1 ace . Darderi also bagged 13 aces (6.5 per match). Baez won 63% points on his first serve. He very solid his second serve to win 50% of the points. On the other side, Darderi won 70% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 61% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Baez | Darderi |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 6 | 8 |
| Converted | 6/15 | 8/19 |
| % Converted | 40% | 42% |
| Conceded | 7 | 10 |
| Saved | 3 | 8 |
| % Saved | 43% | 80% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 2 |
The Argentine broke his opponent 6 times with a 40% conversion rate. The Argentine lost his serve 4 times and he saved 43% of the break points that he conceded. Luciano broke his opponents 8 times with a 42% conversion rate. The Italian conceded his serve twice and he saved 80% of the break points that he conceded.
| Baez | |||
| R2 Budkov |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 3-6 6-2 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | |
| Tot Games | 29 | 29 | |
| pts | 94-88 | 94-88 | |
| Total points | 182 | 182 | |
| Winners | 36 | 36 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 38% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 57/81 | 57/81 | |
| % 1st in | 70% | 70% | |
| 1st pts | 36/57 | 36/57 | |
| % 1st pts | 63% | 63% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/24 | 12/24 | |
| % 2nd pts | 50% | 50% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 6 | 6 | |
| Converted | 6/15 | 6/15 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 40% | |
| Conceded | 7 | 7 | |
| Saved | 3/7 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 43% | 43% | |
| Times Broken | 4 | 4 | |
| Darderi | ||||
| R1 Collignon |
R2 Ymer |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-2 2-6 6-2 | 6-2 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 24 | 16 | 40 | |
| pts | 91-81 | 59-40 | 150-121 | |
| Total points | 172 | 99 | 271 | |
| Winners | 37 | 20 | 57 | |
| %Winners | 41% | 34% | 38% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 5 | 8 | 13 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 55/91 | 27/50 | 82/141 | |
| % 1st in | 60% | 54% | 58% | |
| 1st pts | 37/55 | 20/27 | 57/82 | |
| % 1st pts | 67% | 74% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 20/36 | 16/23 | 36/59 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | 70% | 61% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 8 | |
| Converted | 4/10 | 4/9 | 8/19 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 44% | 42% | |
| Conceded | 8 | 2 | 10 | |
| Saved | 6/8 | 2/2 | 8 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 100% | 175% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 0 | 2 | |
Head 2 Head
LLWLLLLLLL
WWWWWWWWWL Tennis Scores in Bastad
- Adam Pavlasek/Jan ZielinskiPavlasek/Jan Zielinski – Ariel Behar/Joran VliegenBehar/Joran Vliegen (0-6 6-4 10-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Camilo Ugo CarabelliUgo Carabelli – Filip MisolicMisolic (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Hugo GastonGaston – Damir DzumhurDzumhur (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Sebastian BaezBaez – (4-1) – H2H and prediction
- Jesper De JongDe Jong – Tallon GriekspoorGriekspoor (1-0) – H2H and prediction
