Keegan Rice and Hiroki Moriya will fight against each other in the qualifications of the Winnipeg Challenger for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Tuesday at 1:30 pm on STADIUM. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Hiroki Moriya who should win in 2 sets.
Hiroki Moriya -> 1.3
Keegan Rice -> 3.28
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Prediction and head to head Keegan Rice vs. Hiroki Moriya
There is no head to head record between Keegan Rice and Hiroki Moriya since this will be the first time that they will clash against each other in the main tour.
Keegan Rice
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 14-8 | 13-6 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 1-5 | 0-3 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 0-3 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Currently unranked, the Canadian got to the qualifications after beating Ryuki Matsuda 6-4 6-2.
In the qualifications, Rice had a good straight sets win against Matsuda (6-4 6-2). During the match, Rice scored 78 points vs Matsuda’s 59. Keegan was quite aggressive to blast 21 winners.
Regarding the service games, Rice scored 3 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Keegan Rice was extremely effective on serve to win 72% (21/29) of his 1st serve and 69% (18/26) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Rice broke Matsuda 3 times after converting 25% of his break points (3/12).
Rice has won exactly 50% of his matches (11-11) in the last 3 years. 10-3 on hard in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this competition, Rice has a compiled10-8 win-loss record in the last 3 years on hard.
Rice has a composed 10-3 win-loss record in 2025, 10-3 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Winnipeg Challenger
Hiroki Moriya
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23-23 | 23-23 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 38-32 | 36-28 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 31-28 | 31-27 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 27-30 | 18-19 | 0-0 | 7-9 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| 2021 | 22-28 | 13-17 | 0-0 | 8-9 | 0-0 | 1-2 |
Ranked no. 398, the Japanese reached the qualifications after defeating Mikael Arseneault 6-4 6-3.
In the qualifications, The Japanese had a good straight sets win against Arseneault (6-4 6-3). During the match Moriya scored 66 points vs Arseneault’s 51. The Japanese was pretty aggressive to blast 23 winners.
About the serving games, Moriya wasn’t able to score even 1 ace for the entire match and he committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Hiroki Moriya lost the serve 3 times. Furthermore, Moriya put 71% of his first serves in, winning 72% (23/32) of the points behind his 1st serve and 31% (4/13) on the 2nd serve. The Japanese broke Arseneault 6 times after converting 55% of his break points (6/11).
Moriya’s best result of the season was getting to the final in M25 Wichita.
Moriya has an aggregate 18-14 win-loss record in 2025, 18-14 on hard (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Winnipeg Challenger
Previously, his best result was reaching the semifinal in 2019. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Rice | Moriya |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 1 | 1 |
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Games | 18 | 19 |
| Pts | 78-59 | 66-51 |
| Total Points | 137 | 117 |
| Winners | 21 | 23 |
| %Winners | 27% | 35% |
Both Rice and Moriya played 1 match. Also both players started their run from the qualifications.Both players have not dropped a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Rice and Moriya have played the same amount of sets 2. However, Rice played 1 game less than Moriya. Keegan scored 21 winners (27% of the total points). On the other side, Hiroki blasted 23 winners (35%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Rice | Moriya |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 3 | 0 |
| Avg per match | 3 | 0 |
| 1st in | 29/55 | 32/45 |
| %1st in | 53% | 71% |
| 1st pts | 21/29 | 23/32 |
| %1st pts | 72% | 72% |
| 2nd pts | 18/26 | 4/13 |
| %2nd pts | 69% | 31% |
Rice made 3 aces . Moriya didn’t manage to fire a single ace to far. Rice won 72% points behind his first serve. He was rock solid on his second serve to win 69% of the points. On the other side, Moriya won 72% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 31% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Rice | Moriya |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 3 | 6 |
| Converted | 3/12 | 6/11 |
| % Converted | 25% | 55% |
| Conceded | 3 | 3 |
| Saved | 3 | 0 |
| % Saved | 100% | 0% |
| Times Broken | 0 | 3 |
Keegan broke his opponent 3 times with a 25% conversion rate. Rice extremely effective on his serve as he has never lost a single service game after saving 3 break points. The Japanese broke his opponent 6 times with a 55% conversion rate. The Japanese conceded his serve 3 times and he saved 0% of the break points that he conceded.
| Rice | |||
| Q1 Matsuda | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 18 | |
| pts | 78-59 | 78-59 | |
| Total points | 137 | 137 | |
| Winners | 21 | 21 | |
| %Winners | 27% | 27% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 3 | 3 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 2 | |
| 1st in | 29/55 | 29/55 | |
| % 1st in | 53% | 53% | |
| 1st pts | 21/29 | 21/29 | |
| % 1st pts | 72% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/26 | 18/26 | |
| % 2nd pts | 69% | 69% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 3 | 3 | |
| Converted | 3/12 | 3/12 | |
| Converted % | 25% | 25% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 3 | |
| Saved | 3/3 | 3 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 100% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 0 | |
| Moriya | |||
| Q1 Arseneault | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 19 | |
| pts | 66-51 | 66-51 | |
| Total points | 117 | 117 | |
| Winners | 23 | 23 | |
| %Winners | 35% | 35% | |
| SERVE | |||
| Aces | 0 | 0 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | |
| 1st in | 32/45 | 32/45 | |
| % 1st in | 71% | 71% | |
| 1st pts | 23/32 | 23/32 | |
| % 1st pts | 72% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 4/13 | 4/13 | |
| % 2nd pts | 31% | 31% | |
| Breaks | |||
| Won | 6 | 6 | |
| Converted | 6/11 | 6/11 | |
| Converted % | 55% | 55% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 3 | |
| Saved | 0/3 | 0 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 0% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 3 | |
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Hiroki MoriyaMoriya – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Karue SellSell – Yuta ShimizuShimizu (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Naoki NakagawaNakagawa – (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Hyeon ChungChung – Strong KirchheimerKirchheimer (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Yusuke TakahashiTakahashi – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Alfredo PerezPerez – (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Nicolas MejiaMejia – Andres AndradeAndrade (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Kris Van WykVan Wyk – Alvin Nicholas TudoricaNicholas Tudorica (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Sho ShimabukuroShimabukuro – Christian LangmoLangmo (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Daniil GlinkaGlinka – Tsung-Hao HuangHuang (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Rio NoguchiNoguchi – Andre IlaganIlagan (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Moerani BouzigeBouzige – Marek GengelGengel (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Justin BoulaisBoulais – Yu Hsiou HsuHsiou Hsu (0-0) – H2H and prediction