Aryna Sabalenka and Elise Mertens will play each other in the 4th round of Wimbledon for the 13th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 3:30 pm on Centre Court. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Aryna Sabalenka who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Aryna Sabalenka is the pick to win this match.
Aryna Sabalenka -> 1.2
Elise Mertens -> 4.55
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Prediction and head to head Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elise Mertens
This will be the 13th time that Aryna Sabalenka and Elise Mertens play each other. The head to head is 10-2 for Sabalenka (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on grass.
The last time that they played, Sabalenka won 3-6 6-2 6-1 in the 3rd round in Madrid back in April 2025.
Highlights Aryna Sabalenka vs Elise Mertens – Madrid 27-April-2025
Aryna Sabalenka
45 - 8win/loss
1
1
WWWWLWWLWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 46-8 | 23-4 | 17-3 | 0-0 | 6-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 56-14 | 38-7 | 15-4 | 2-2 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 55-14 | 35-9 | 14-3 | 0-0 | 6-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 33-22 | 20-15 | 9-5 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 45-18 | 24-11 | 13-3 | 1-1 | 7-3 | 0-0 |
Currently world no. 1 the Belarussian reached the 4th round after defeating Carson Branstine 6-1 7-5, Marie Bouzkova 7-6(4) 6-4 and Emma Raducanu 7-6(6) 6-4.
In the 3rd round, The Belarussian had a good straight sets win against Raducanu (7-66 6-4). During the match, Sabalenka scored 85 points vs Raducanu’s 78. Aryna was exceptionally aggressive to blast 31 winners.
Talking about the service games, Sabalenka recorded 4 aces and she committed only 1 double fault. Aryna Sabalenka lost the serve 3 times and she saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Sabalenka put 64% of her first serves in, winning 62% (31/50) of the points behind her 1st serve and 57% (16/28) on the 2nd serve. Sabalenka broke Raducanu 4 times after converting 27% of her break points (4/15).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Belarussian hasn’t dropped yet a set in this tournament to conquer 55% of the points she played.
Sabalenka has an impressive match record in the last 10 years having won 70% of her matches (419-176). 5-1 on grass in 2025. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this event, Sabalenka has a composed 39-20 match record in the last years on grass.
Her best result of the current year was winning the title in Brisbane where she overcame Polina Kudermetova in the final 4-6 6-3 6-2 and in Miami where she defeated Jessica Pegula in the final 7-5 6-2 and in Madrid where she defeated Cori Gauff in the final 6-3 7-6(3).
The Belarussian has a compiled 45-8 win-loss record in 2025, 5-1 on grass (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Wimbledon
Elise Mertens
29 - 12win/loss
23
12
LWWWLWWWWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 29-13 | 10-6 | 6-5 | 5-0 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 28-25 | 18-15 | 6-5 | 1-1 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 30-22 | 24-16 | 5-4 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 29-23 | 19-14 | 4-3 | 2-2 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 33-20 | 20-10 | 9-5 | 2-2 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 23, Elise got to the 4th round after defeating Linda Fruhvirtova 6-4 6-2, Ann Li 6-7(5) 6-1 6-2 and Elina Svitolina 6-1 7-6(4).
In the 3rd round, Elise had a good straight sets win against Svitolina (6-1 7-64). During the match Mertens scored 78 points vs Svitolina’s 61. The Belgian was exceptionally aggressive to blast 28 winners.
About the serving games, Mertens fired 4 aces and she committed only 1 double fault for the entire match. Elise Mertens lost the serve once and she saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Mertens put 59% of her first serves in, winning 68% (28/41) of the points behind her 1st serve and 59% (17/29) on the 2nd serve. The Belgian broke Svitolina 4 times after converting 44% of her break points (4/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Mertens has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 57% of the points she played.
Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Singapore where she beat Ann Li in the final 6-1 6-4 and in Hertogenbosch where she beat Elena Gabriela Ruse in the final 6-3 7-6(4).
Elise has an aggregate 29-12 win-loss record in 2025, 8-1 on grass (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Wimbledon
Previously, her best result was reaching the 4th round in 2019 and 2022. See her history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Sabalenka | Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 6 | 7 |
| Tot Games | 65 | 66 |
| Pts | 225-183 | 261-199 |
| Total Points | 408 | 460 |
| Winners | 89 | 89 |
| %Winners | 40% | 34% |
Both Sabalenka and Mertens played 3 matches. At the moment, Elise Mertens surrendered 1 set while Aryna Sabalenka hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Sabalenka has played 1 set(s) less than Mertens (6 vs 7). Therefore, Sabalenka played 1 game less than Mertens. Aryna scored 89 winners (40% of the total points). On the other side, Mertens managed to score 89 winners (34%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Sabalenka | Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 12 | 15 |
| Avg per match | 4 | 5 |
| 1st in | 120/194 | 117/209 |
| %1st in | 62% | 56% |
| 1st pts | 89/120 | 89/117 |
| %1st pts | 74% | 76% |
| 2nd pts | 46/74 | 50/92 |
| %2nd pts | 62% | 54% |
Sabalenka struck 12 aces (4 per match). Mertens scored 15 aces (5 per match). Sabalenka won 74% points on her first serve. She pretty effective on her second serve to win 62% of the points. On the other side, Mertens won 76% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 54% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Sabalenka | Mertens |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 9 | 14 |
| Converted | 9/24 | 14/36 |
| % Converted | 38% | 39% |
| Conceded | 10 | 16 |
| Saved | 6 | 12 |
| % Saved | 60% | 75% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 4 |
Aryna broke her opponents 9 times with a 38% conversion rate. Aryna surrendered her serve 4 times and she saved 60% of the break points that she conceded. Elise broke her opponents 14 times with a 39% conversion rate. Elise conceded her serve 4 times and she saved 75% of the break points that she conceded.
| Sabalenka | |||||
| R1 Branstine |
R2 Bouzkova |
R3 Raducanu |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-1 7-5 | 7-64 6-4 | 7-66 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |
| Tot Games | 19 | 23 | 23 | 65 | |
| pts | 66-47 | 74-58 | 85-78 | 225-183 | |
| Total points | 113 | 132 | 163 | 408 | |
| Winners | 28 | 30 | 31 | 89 | |
| %Winners | 42% | 41% | 36% | 40% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 3 | 5 | 4 | 12 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 36/59 | 34/57 | 50/78 | 120/194 | |
| % 1st in | 61% | 60% | 64% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 28/36 | 30/34 | 31/50 | 89/120 | |
| % 1st pts | 78% | 88% | 62% | 74% | |
| 2nd pts | 15/23 | 15/23 | 16/28 | 46/74 | |
| % 2nd pts | 65% | 65% | 57% | 62% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 3 | 2 | 4 | 9 | |
| Converted | 3/5 | 2/4 | 4/15 | 9/24 | |
| Converted % | 60% | 50% | 27% | 38% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 1 | 8 | 10 | |
| Saved | 1/1 | 0/1 | 5/8 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 0% | 63% | 54% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
| Mertens | |||||
| R1 Fruhvirtova |
R2 Li |
R3 Svitolina |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-2 | 6-75 6-1 6-2 | 6-1 7-64 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 2 | 7 | |
| Tot Games | 18 | 28 | 20 | 66 | |
| pts | 79-61 | 104-77 | 78-61 | 261-199 | |
| Total points | 140 | 181 | 139 | 460 | |
| Winners | 22 | 39 | 28 | 89 | |
| %Winners | 28% | 38% | 36% | 34% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 4 | 7 | 4 | 15 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | |
| 1st in | 28/58 | 48/81 | 41/70 | 117/209 | |
| % 1st in | 48% | 59% | 59% | 56% | |
| 1st pts | 22/28 | 39/48 | 28/41 | 89/117 | |
| % 1st pts | 79% | 81% | 68% | 76% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/30 | 16/33 | 17/29 | 50/92 | |
| % 2nd pts | 57% | 48% | 59% | 54% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 4 | 6 | 4 | 14 | |
| Converted | 4/12 | 6/15 | 4/9 | 14/36 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 40% | 44% | 39% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 5 | 6 | 16 | |
| Saved | 4/5 | 3/5 | 5/6 | 12 | |
| Saved % | 80% | 60% | 83% | 74% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWLWWLWW
LWWWLWWWWW Tennis Scores – Wimbledon
- Laura SiegemundSiegemund – Madison KeysKeys (6-3 6-3) – See score progression
- Elise MertensMertens – Elina SvitolinaSvitolina (6-1 7-64) – See score progression
- Solana SierraSierra – Cristina BucsaBucsa (7-5 1-6 6-1) – See score progression
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Emma RaducanuRaducanu (7-66 6-4) – See score progression
- Linda NoskovaNoskova – Kamilla RakhimovaRakhimova (7-66 7-5) – See score progression
- Sonay KartalKartal – Diane ParryParry (6-4 6-2) – See score progression
- Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova – Dalma GalfiGalfi (6-3 5-7 6-3) – See score progression
- Anastasia PavlyuchenkovaPavlyuchenkova – Naomi OsakaOsaka (3-6 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Barbora KrejcikovaKrejcikova – Emma NavarroNavarro (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Zeynep SonmezSonmez – Ekaterina AlexandrovaAlexandrova (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Belinda BencicBencic – Elisabetta CocciarettoCocciaretto (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Danielle Rose CollinsRose Collins (7-2) – H2H and prediction
- Clara TausonTauson – Elena RybakinaRybakina (0-2) – H2H and prediction
- Darya KasatkinaKasatkina – Ludmilla SamsonovaSamsonova (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Jessica Bouzas ManeiroBouzas Maneiro – Dayana YastremskaYastremska (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Aryna SabalenkaSabalenka – Elise MertensMertens (10-2) – H2H and prediction
