Carlos Alcaraz and Andrey Rublev will play each other in the 4th round of Wimbledon for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Sunday at 5:30 pm on Centre Court. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Carlos Alcaraz who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Carlos Alcaraz is the pick to win this match.
Carlos Alcaraz -> 1.084
Andrey Rublev -> 7.7
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Prediction and head to head Carlos Alcaraz vs. Andrey Rublev
This will be the 4th time that Carlos Alcaraz and Andrey Rublev play each other. The head to head is 2-1 for Alcaraz (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on grass.
The last time that they locked horns, Alcaraz won 6-3 7-6(8) in the R in Nitto atp finals back in 2024.
Highlights Carlos Alcaraz vs Andrey Rublev – Nitto atp finals 13-November-2024
Carlos Alcaraz
45 - 5win/loss
2
1
WWWWWWWWWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 46-5 | 10-4 | 22-1 | 5-0 | 9-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 54-13 | 22-5 | 17-4 | 7-3 | 8-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 65-12 | 26-6 | 25-3 | 2-3 | 12-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 57-13 | 21-4 | 27-4 | 6-4 | 3-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 48-19 | 15-8 | 22-7 | 10-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 2, Carlos got to the 4th round after defeating Fabio Fognini 7-5 6-7(5) 7-5 2-6 6-1, Oliver Tarvet 6-1 6-4 6-4 and Jan-Lennard Struff 6-1 3-6 6-3 6-4.
In the 3rd round, Alcaraz defeated Struff (6-1 3-6 6-3 6-4). During the match, Alcaraz scored 125 points vs Struff’s 105. Carlos was exceptionally aggressive to blast 46 winners.
Regarding the service games, Alcaraz bagged 10 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Overall, Carlos Alcaraz was exceptionally effective on serve to win 73% (46/63) of his 1st serve and 62% (28/45) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Carlos broke Struff 5 times after converting 42% of his break points (5/12).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Spaniard has dropped 3 set in this tournament to conquer 54% of the points he played.
Alcaraz has a fantastic win-loss record in the last 8 years having won 80% of his matches (332-81). 8-0 on grass in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Alcaraz has a composed32-3 win-loss record in the last 8 years on grass.
His best result of the year was conquering the title in Rotterdam where he beat Alex De Minaur in the final 6-4 3-6 6-2 and in Carlo where he defeated Lorenzo Musetti in the final 3-6 6-1 6-0 and in Rome where he overcame Jannik Sinner in the final 7-6(5) 6-1 and at the French Open where he overcame Jannik Sinner in the final 4-6 6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(3) 7-6(2) and in London where he defeated Jiri Lehecka in the final 7-5 6-7(5) 6-2.
The Spaniard has a composed 45-5 win-loss record in 2025, 8-0 on grass (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Wimbledon
Andrey Rublev
21 - 14win/loss
14
5
LWWWLWLWWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 21-15 | 5-5 | 8-6 | 4-2 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 43-26 | 26-11 | 11-6 | 6-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 56-26 | 23-12 | 19-5 | 6-7 | 8-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 51-20 | 19-7 | 14-6 | 18-6 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 53-23 | 25-10 | 9-5 | 12-6 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 14, Andrey got to the 4th round after beating Laslo Djere 6-0 7-6(5) 6-7(9) 7-6(6), Lloyd Harris 6-7(1) 6-4 7-6(5) 6-3 and Adrian Mannarino 7-5 6-2 6-3.
In the 3rd round, The Russian had a good straight sets win against Mannarino (7-5 6-2 6-3). During the match Rublev scored 99 points vs Mannarino’s 79. Rublev was quite aggressive to blast 45 winners.
About the serving games, Rublev managed to score 14 aces and he committed only 4 double faults. Overall, Andrey Rublev was exceptionally effective on serve to win 80% (45/56) of his 1st serve and 53% (23/43) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve once. The Russian broke Mannarino 5 times after converting 63% of his break points (5/8).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Andrey has conceded 2 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
His best result of the current season was conquering the title in Doha where he defeated Jack Draper in the final 7-5 5-7 6-1.
The Russian has a compiled 21-14 win-loss record in 2025, 4-1 on grass (See FULL STATS).
Previously in Wimbledon
Previously, his best result was reaching the quarter in 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Alcaraz | Rublev |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 3 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 12 | 11 |
| Tot Games | 114 | 119 |
| Pts | 409-351 | 398-334 |
| Total Points | 760 | 732 |
| Winners | 166 | 184 |
| %Winners | 41% | 46% |
Both Alcaraz and Rublev played 3 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Carlos Alcaraz lost 3 sets, while Andrey Rublev dropped 2 sets. Alcaraz has played 1 set more than Rublev (12 vs 11). However, it’s interesting to notice that Alcaraz played 5 games less than Rublev. The Spaniard scored 166 winners (41% of the total points). On the other side, Andrey made 184 winners (46%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Alcaraz | Rublev |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 27 | 38 |
| Avg per match | 9 | 12.7 |
| 1st in | 235/393 | 225/360 |
| %1st in | 60% | 63% |
| 1st pts | 166/235 | 184/225 |
| %1st pts | 71% | 82% |
| 2nd pts | 87/158 | 82/135 |
| %2nd pts | 55% | 61% |
Alcaraz scored 27 aces (9 per match). Rublev fired 38 aces (12.7 per match). Alcaraz won 71% points on his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 55% of the points. On the other side, Rublev won 82% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 61% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Alcaraz | Rublev |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 18 | 11 |
| Converted | 18/37 | 11/29 |
| % Converted | 49% | 38% |
| Conceded | 37 | 17 |
| Saved | 28 | 15 |
| % Saved | 76% | 88% |
| Times Broken | 9 | 2 |
Alcaraz broke his opponents 18 times with a 49% conversion rate. The Spaniard conceded his serve 9 times and he saved 76% of the break points that he conceded. Andrey broke his opponents 11 times with a 38% conversion rate. The Russian conceded his serve twice and he saved 88% of the break points that he conceded.
| Alcaraz | |||||
| R1 Fognini |
R2 Tarvet |
R3 Struff |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 6-75 7-5 2-6 6-1 | 6-1 6-4 6-4 | 6-1 3-6 6-3 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 5 | 3 | 4 | 12 | |
| Tot Games | 52 | 27 | 35 | 114 | |
| pts | 184-173 | 100-73 | 125-105 | 409-351 | |
| Total points | 357 | 173 | 230 | 760 | |
| Winners | 77 | 43 | 46 | 166 | |
| %Winners | 42% | 43% | 37% | 41% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 14 | 3 | 10 | 27 | |
| Double Faults | 9 | 4 | 4 | 17 | |
| 1st in | 110/189 | 62/96 | 63/108 | 235/393 | |
| % 1st in | 58% | 65% | 58% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 77/110 | 43/62 | 46/63 | 166/235 | |
| % 1st pts | 70% | 69% | 73% | 71% | |
| 2nd pts | 41/79 | 18/34 | 28/45 | 87/158 | |
| % 2nd pts | 52% | 53% | 62% | 55% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 7 | 6 | 5 | 18 | |
| Converted | 7/15 | 6/10 | 5/12 | 18/37 | |
| Converted % | 47% | 60% | 42% | 49% | |
| Conceded | 21 | 11 | 5 | 37 | |
| Saved | 16/21 | 9/11 | 3/5 | 28 | |
| Saved % | 76% | 82% | 60% | 73% | |
| Times Broken | 5 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| Rublev | |||||
| R1 Djere |
R2 Lloyd |
R3 Mannarino |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-0 7-65 6-79 7-66 | 6-71 6-4 7-65 6-3 | 7-5 6-2 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 4 | 4 | 3 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 45 | 45 | 29 | 119 | |
| pts | 163-142 | 136-113 | 99-79 | 398-334 | |
| Total points | 305 | 249 | 178 | 732 | |
| Winners | 68 | 71 | 45 | 184 | |
| %Winners | 42% | 52% | 45% | 46% | |
| SERVE | |||||
| Aces | 12 | 12 | 14 | 38 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 6 | 4 | 13 | |
| 1st in | 88/142 | 81/119 | 56/99 | 225/360 | |
| % 1st in | 62% | 68% | 57% | 63% | |
| 1st pts | 68/88 | 71/81 | 45/56 | 184/225 | |
| % 1st pts | 77% | 88% | 80% | 82% | |
| 2nd pts | 37/54 | 22/38 | 23/43 | 82/135 | |
| % 2nd pts | 69% | 58% | 53% | 61% | |
| Breaks | |||||
| Won | 3 | 3 | 5 | 11 | |
| Converted | 3/15 | 3/6 | 5/8 | 11/29 | |
| Converted % | 20% | 50% | 63% | 38% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 4 | 10 | 17 | |
| Saved | 3/3 | 3/4 | 9/10 | 15 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 75% | 90% | 88% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
Head 2 Head
WWWWWWWWWW
LWWWLWLWWL Tennis Scores – Wimbledon
- Cameron NorrieNorrie – Mattia BellucciBellucci (7-65 6-4 6-3) – See score progression
- Carlos AlcarazAlcaraz – Jan-Lennard StruffStruff (6-1 3-6 6-3 6-4) – See score progression
- Andrey RublevRublev – Adrian MannarinoMannarino (7-5 6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Taylor FritzFritz – Alejandro Davidovich FokinaDavidovich Fokina (6-4 6-3 6-75 6-1) – See score progression
- Jordan ThompsonThompson – Luciano DarderiDarderi (6-4 6-4 3-6 6-3) – See score progression
- Kamil MajchrzakMajchrzak – Arthur RinderknechRinderknech (6-3 7-64 7-6) – See score progression
- Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Nuno BorgesBorges (7-66 4-6 4-6 6-3 7-6) – See score progression
- Nicolas JarryJarry – Joao FonsecaFonseca (6-3 6-4 3-6 7-64) – See score progression
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Jannik SinnerSinner – Pedro Martinez PorteroMartinez Portero (1-0) – H2H and prediction
- Grigor DimitrovDimitrov – Sebastian OfnerOfner (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Brandon NakashimaNakashima – Lorenzo SonegoSonego (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Marin CilicCilic – Jaume Antoni Munar ClarAntoni Munar Clar (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Flavio CobolliCobolli – (0-1) – H2H and prediction
- Alex De MinaurDe Minaur – August HolmgrenHolmgren (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Miomir KecmanovicKecmanovic – Novak DjokovicDjokovic (0-3) – H2H and prediction
- Taylor Harry FritzHarry Fritz – Jordan ThompsonThompson (2-1) – H2H and prediction
- Karen KhachanovKhachanov – Kamil MajchrzakMajchrzak (3-0) – H2H and prediction
- Nicolas JarryJarry – Cameron NorrieNorrie (1-1) – H2H and prediction
- Andrey RublevRublev – Carlos Alcaraz GarfiaAlcaraz Garfia (1-2) – H2H and prediction
