Jasmine Paolini and Iga Swiatek will play each other in the semifinal of the Bad Homburg Open for the 5^th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 1:00 pm on SPIELBANK BAD HOMBURG CENTRE COURT. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Iga Swiatek who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Iga Swiatek is the pick to win this match.
Iga Swiatek -> 1.41
Jasmine Paolini -> 2.91

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Prediction and head to head Jasmine Paolini vs. Iga Swiatek

This will be the 5^th time that Jasmine Paolini and Iga Swiatek square off. The head to head is 4-0 for Swiatek (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on grass.

The last time that they squared off, Swiatek won 3-6 6-4 6-4 in the Rubber 2 in Billie Jean King Cup, Finals back in 2024.

Jasmine Paolini

Ranked no. 4 (career-high), the Italian reached the semifinal after defeating Leylah Annie Fernandez 7-6(8) 7-6(6) and Beatriz Haddad Maia 7-5 7-5.

In the quarter, Paolini had a good straight sets win against Haddad Maia (7-5 7-5). During the match, Paolini scored 68 points vs Haddad Maia’s 61. Paolini was exceptionally aggressive to blast 28 winners.

Regarding the service games, Paolini was unable to score even 1 ace throughout the encounter and she committed only 3 double faults. Overall, Jasmine Paolini was very effective on serve to win 72% (28/39) of her 1st serve and 72% (13/18) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve twice. Paolini broke Haddad Maia 4 times after converting 57% of her break points (4/7).

Overall Performance in this tournament

Paolini hasn’t conceded yet a set in this competition to win 51% of the points she played.

Paolini has positive match record in the last 10 years having won 58% of her matches (337-241). 2-1 on grass in 2025. Talking about her performance on the same surface of this competition, Paolini has a composed 16-16 win-loss record in the last years on grass.

Her best result of the season was winning the title in Rome where she beat Cori Gauff in the final 6-4 6-2.

Jasmine has an overall 27-10 win-loss record in 2025, 2-1 on grass (See FULL STATS).

Previously in Bad Homburg

Jasmine has never competed in this tournament before.

Iga Swiatek

Ranked no. 8, Iga reached the semifinal after defeating Victoria Azarenka 6-4 6-4 and Ekaterina Alexandrova 6-4 7-6(5).

In the quarter, The Pole had a good straight sets win against Alexandrova (6-4 7-6⁵). During the match Swiatek scored 76 points vs Alexandrova’s 72. Iga was quite aggressive to blast 33 winners.

About the serving games, Swiatek made 5 aces and she committed only 4 double faults. Overall, Iga Swiatek was quite effective on serve to win 75% (33/44) of her 1st serve and 55% (18/33) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent her to concede the serve once. Swiatek broke Alexandrova twice after converting 33% of her break points (2/6).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Pole hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 53% of the points she played.

The Pole’s best result of the year was getting to the final in Australia.

The Pole has a compiled 34-10 win-loss record in 2025, 2-0 on grass (See FULL STATS).

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Paolini	Swiatek
Match played	2	2
Tot Set	4	4
Tot Games	50	43
Pts	171-164	140-122
Total Points	335	262
Winners	57	63
%Winners	33%	45%

Both Paolini and Swiatek played 2 matches. Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Paolini and Swiatek have played the same amount of sets 4. However, Paolini played 7 games more than Swiatek. Paolini scored 57 winners (33% of the total points). On the other side, Swiatek recorded 63 winners (45%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Paolini	Swiatek
Aces	4	11
Avg per match	2	5.5
1st in	87/138	82/132
%1st in	63%	62%
1st pts	57/87	63/82
%1st pts	66%	77%
2nd pts	30/51	25/50
%2nd pts	59%	50%

Paolini made 4 aces (2 per match). Swiatek recorded 11 aces (5.5 per match). Paolini won 66% points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 59% of the points. On the other side, Swiatek won 77% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 50% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Paolini	Swiatek
Won	9	6
Converted	9/24	6/14
% Converted	38%	43%
Conceded	9	12
Saved	2	9
% Saved	22%	75%
Times Broken	7	3

The Italian broke her opponents 9 times with a 38% conversion rate. Paolini surrendered her serve 7 times and she saved 22% of the break points that she conceded. Iga broke her opponents 6 times with a 43% conversion rate. The Pole conceded her serve 3 times and she saved 75% of the break points that she conceded.

Paolini
	R2 Annie	1/4 Haddad Maia	Total
Score	7-68 7-66	7-5 7-5
Tot Set	2	2	4
Tot Games	26	24	50
pts	103-103	68-61	171-164
Total points	206	129	335
Winners	29	28	57
%Winners	28%	41%	33%
SERVE
Aces	4	0	4
Double Faults	1	3	4
1st in	48/81	39/57	87/138
% 1st in	59%	68%	63%
1st pts	29/48	28/39	57/87
% 1st pts	60%	72%	66%
2nd pts	17/33	13/18	30/51
% 2nd pts	52%	72%	59%
Breaks
Won	5	4	9
Converted	5/17	4/7	9/24
Converted %	29%	57%	38%
Conceded	7	2	9
Saved	2/7	0/2	2
Saved %	29%	0%	15%
Times Broken	5	2	7

Swiatek
	R2 Azarenka	1/4 Alexandrova	Total
Score	6-4 6-4	6-4 7-65
Tot Set	2	2	4
Tot Games	20	23	43
pts	64-50	76-72	140-122
Total points	114	148	262
Winners	30	33	63
%Winners	47%	43%	45%
SERVE
Aces	6	5	11
Double Faults	3	4	7
1st in	38/55	44/77	82/132
% 1st in	69%	57%	62%
1st pts	30/38	33/44	63/82
% 1st pts	79%	75%	77%
2nd pts	7/17	18/33	25/50
% 2nd pts	41%	55%	50%
Breaks
Won	4	2	6
Converted	4/8	2/6	6/14
Converted %	50%	33%	43%
Conceded	6	6	12
Saved	4/6	5/6	9
Saved %	67%	83%	75%
Times Broken	2	1	3

Tennis Scores in Bad Homburg

• Pol Toledo BagueToledo Bague – Federico ZeballosZeballos (6-2 6-1) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Facundo Diaz AcostaDiaz Acosta – Albert RoglanRoglan (7-6⁶ 4-6 6-3) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Jessica PegulaPegula – Emma NavarroNavarro (1-0) – H2H and prediction
• Iga SwiatekSwiatek – Jasmine PaoliniPaolini (4-0) – H2H and prediction