Federer – Nadal is probably one of the biggest (if not the biggest) rivalries in tennis history, and we are all blessed to see yet another major final between them at the Australia Open. This final has a tremendous meaning not only because it marks an incredible comeback from two legends, but also because if Roger wins he will have an unassailable 18-14 lead (major won) against Rafa, but if the Spaniard he wins he will be “just” 2 majors away from Roger (17-15)

Federer

Last year, Roger took a six months hiatus to get ready for the new season, and he amazed everyone after he reached the final at his first tournament and slam. The Swiss legend has won two five-setters against Nishikori and Wawrinka, and his tennis is as sharp as ever. Regarding the last act of the Australian Open, there are still question marks about his physical conditions just because of his age, but he looks pretty fit.

Nadal

The Spanish warrior was not even on the map at the beginning of his Melbourne campaign to stun the tennis community after reaching the final following also three fantastic matches against Zverev, Raonic, and (especially) the semi against Dimitrov. Even if Rafa doesn’t look to be that tennis machine we all knew, he looks extremely fit and mentally strong to endure all sorts of battles once again. The Spaniard was impressive against a magnificent Dimitrov when he beat the Bulgarian in a fascinating five setter.

4 reasons why Federer is the favorite

Fast courts

We all know that Rafa usually has the upper hand against Roger. The Spaniard has been a no-go for Roger on clay and slow hard courts, but usually, Roger is stronger on fast courts, and the courts in Melbourne are extremely fast right now.

In fact, Roger commented

“I know this court allows me to play a certain game against Rafa that I cannot do on centre court at the French Open.” 

Better Comeback

Both Roger and Rafa have staged an astonishing comeback, but it seems that after this long hiatus, Federer has achieved a slightly better overall condition than Rafa… at least for now.

Physical condition

Even if Roger is 35 and he has played a very tiring semi-final against Wawrinka, the Maestro had one more day than Rafa to recover. In addition, the King of Clay had to endure a punishing 5 hours match against Dimitrov. Nadal was in a similar situation in 2009 when he won a crazy marathon against Verdasco in the Melbourne semi before beating Roger soon after, but at that time, Rafa was eight years younger.

Fans

Even if Rafa has a huge following, you can expect that Roger will have a strong support from the public.

3 Reasons why Rafa has an advantage

That forehand

Rafa has haunted Roger for their entire career with is deadly cross-court forehand on Roger’s backhand. That is still a very valid pattern today, but Nadal has less power now, and the fast court would not help match

Rafa owns Roger

Rafa has an amazing 23-11 win-loss record against Federer. This may play a huge part in this final.

Physical conditions

If Nadal had a full recovery after his marathon against Dimitrov, If the first few sets are not fast, he might have a huge upper hand n a possible decider.