Colton Smith and Shintaro Mochizuki will square off in the semifinal of the Nottingham 2 Challenger for the 3rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 12:00 pm on COURT 1. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Colton Smith who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Colton Smith is the pick to win this match.
Colton Smith -> 1.58
Shintaro Mochizuki -> 2.26
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Prediction and head to head Colton Smith vs. Shintaro Mochizuki
This will be the 3rd time that Colton Smith and Shintaro Mochizuki square off. The head to head is 1-1 (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on grass.
The last time that they locked horns, Mochizuki won 6-4 3-6 6-2 in the 1st round in the Ilkley Challenger back in June 2025.
Colton Smith
22 - 8win/loss
135
134
LLWLWWWLWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23-11 | 5-4 | 4-2 | 5-0 | 9-5 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 34-11 | 22-7 | 0-0 | 12-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 5-4 | 4-2 | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 146, the American got to the semifinal after beating Yosuke Watanuki 7-5 4-6 6-3, James Kent Trotter 6-3 3-6 6-3, Marco Trungelliti 6-2 4-6 6-3, James McCabe 5-7 6-3 6-3 and Emilio Nava 6-7(5) 6-4 6-4.
In the quarter against Nava, Colton recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (6-75 6-4 6-4). During the match, Smith scored 107 points vs Nava’s 98. Colton was very aggressive to blast 49 winners.
Talking about the service games, Smith fired 6 aces and he committed only 1 double fault. Overall, Colton Smith was quite efficient on serve to win 71% (49/69) of his 1st serve and 55% (21/38) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Colton broke Nava 4 times after converting 44% of his break points (4/9).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Smith started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has dropped 4 set in this competition to win 54% of the points he played.
Smith has a fantastic record in the last 4 years having won 73% of his matches (61-23). 8-3 on grass in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Smith has a compiled8-3 win-loss record in the last 4 years on grass.
His best result of the season was winning the title the Cleveland Challenger where he beat Eliot Spizzirri in the final 6-4 6-7(6) 6-3.
Colton has a compiled 22-8 win-loss record in 2025, 8-3 on grass (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Nottingham 2 Challenger
Smith has never competed in this tournament before.
Shintaro Mochizuki
23 - 15win/loss
125
125
LWWWWLWWWW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 28-17 | 15-8 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 11-3 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 28-33 | 19-22 | 7-5 | 0-1 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 41-33 | 22-16 | 13-8 | 2-5 | 4-4 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 37-34 | 18-17 | 13-12 | 6-5 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 35-30 | 11-10 | 18-11 | 5-7 | 1-1 | 0-1 |
Ranked no. 164, Mochizuki got to the semifinal after beating Pierre-Hugues Herbert 6-4 7-6(7), Tristan Boyer 6-2 6-3 and Jaime Faria 6-2 6-0.
In the quarter, Mochizuki had a good straight sets win against Faria (6-2 6-0). During the match Mochizuki scored 53 points vs Faria’s 31. Shintaro was quite aggressive to blast 23 winners.
Talking about serving, Mochizuki struck 2 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Shintaro Mochizuki conceded no breaks for the entire match to save 2 break points. Furthermore, Mochizuki put 64% of his first serves in, winning 85% (23/27) of the points behind his 1st serve and 47% (7/15) on the 2nd serve. Shintaro broke Faria 5 times after converting 45% of his break points (5/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Mochizuki hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 57% of the points he played.
His best result of the season was winning the title the Noumea Challenger where he beat Moerani Bouzige in the final 6-1 6-3.
Shintaro has an aggregate 23-15 win-loss record in 2025, 6-1 on grass (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Nottingham 2 Challenger
Previously, his best result was reaching the 1st round in 2024. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Smith | Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 3 |
| Tot Set | 12 | 6 |
| Tot Games | 121 | 54 |
| Pts | 422-364 | 194-148 |
| Total Points | 786 | 342 |
| Winners | 180 | 71 |
| %Winners | 43% | 37% |
Smith played 4 matches while Mochizuki competed in 3 matches. Smith started his run from the qualifications while Mochizuki had a direct access to the main draw. At the moment, Colton Smith dropped 4 sets while Shintaro Mochizuki hasn’t surrendered a set so far. Smith has played 6 sets more than Mochizuki (12 vs 6). Therefore, Smith played 67 games more than Mochizuki. The American scored 180 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, Mochizuki fired 71 winners (37%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Smith | Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 23 | 4 |
| Avg per match | 5.8 | 1.3 |
| 1st in | 251/377 | 90/165 |
| %1st in | 67% | 55% |
| 1st pts | 180/251 | 71/90 |
| %1st pts | 72% | 79% |
| 2nd pts | 73/126 | 38/75 |
| %2nd pts | 58% | 51% |
Smith struck 23 aces (5.8 per match). Mochizuki recorded 4 aces (1.3 per match). Smith won 72% points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 58% of the points. On the other side, Mochizuki won 79% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 51% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Smith | Mochizuki |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 15 | 14 |
| Converted | 15/40 | 14/28 |
| % Converted | 38% | 50% |
| Conceded | 22 | 9 |
| Saved | 14 | 5 |
| % Saved | 64% | 56% |
| Times Broken | 8 | 4 |
Colton broke his opponents 15 times with a 38% conversion rate. Colton conceded his serve 8 times and he saved 64% of the break points that he conceded. Mochizuki broke his opponents 14 times with a 50% conversion rate. Mochizuki conceded his serve 4 times and he saved 56% of the break points that he conceded.
| Smith | |||||||
| Q1 Watanuki |
Q3 Kent |
R1 Trungelliti |
R2 McCabe |
1/4 Nava |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 4-6 6-3 | 6-3 3-6 6-3 | 6-2 4-6 6-3 | 5-7 6-3 6-3 | 6-75 6-4 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | |
| Tot Games | 31 | 27 | 27 | 30 | 33 | 148 | |
| pts | 101-86 | – | 104-82 | 110-98 | 107-98 | 422-364 | |
| Total points | 187 | 0 | 186 | 208 | 205 | 786 | |
| Winners | 46 | 46 | 39 | 49 | 180 | ||
| %Winners | 46% | 0% | 44% | 35% | 46% | 43% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 7 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 23 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | ||
| 1st in | 60/89 | / | 67/95 | 55/86 | 69/107 | 251/377 | |
| % 1st in | 67% | 0% | 71% | 64% | 64% | 67% | |
| 1st pts | 46/60 | / | 46/67 | 39/55 | 49/69 | 180/251 | |
| % 1st pts | 77% | 0% | 69% | 71% | 71% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 19/29 | / | 15/28 | 18/31 | 21/38 | 73/126 | |
| % 2nd pts | 66% | 0% | 54% | 58% | 55% | 58% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 15 | ||
| Converted | 2/5 | / | 5/10 | 4/16 | 4/9 | 15/40 | |
| Converted % | 40% | 0% | 50% | 25% | 44% | 38% | |
| Conceded | 3 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 22 | ||
| Saved | 2/3 | 0/ | 7/10 | 2/4 | 3/5 | 14 | |
| Saved % | 67% | – | 70% | 50% | 60% | 49% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | ||
| Mochizuki | |||||||
| R1 Herbert |
R2 Boyer |
1/4 Faria |
Total | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 7-67 | 6-2 6-3 | 6-2 6-0 | ||||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | |||
| Tot Games | 23 | 17 | 14 | 54 | |||
| pts | 72-67 | 69-50 | 53-31 | 194-148 | |||
| Total points | 139 | 119 | 84 | 342 | |||
| Winners | 28 | 20 | 23 | 71 | |||
| %Winners | 39% | 29% | 43% | 37% | |||
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | |||
| Double Faults | 1 | 3 | 2 | 6 | |||
| 1st in | 35/72 | 28/51 | 27/42 | 90/165 | |||
| % 1st in | 49% | 55% | 64% | 55% | |||
| 1st pts | 28/35 | 20/28 | 23/27 | 71/90 | |||
| % 1st pts | 80% | 71% | 85% | 79% | |||
| 2nd pts | 22/37 | 9/23 | 7/15 | 38/75 | |||
| % 2nd pts | 59% | 39% | 47% | 51% | |||
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 2 | 7 | 5 | 14 | |||
| Converted | 2/5 | 7/12 | 5/11 | 14/28 | |||
| Converted % | 40% | 58% | 45% | 50% | |||
| Conceded | 1 | 6 | 2 | 9 | |||
| Saved | 0/1 | 3/6 | 2/2 | 5 | |||
| Saved % | 0% | 50% | 100% | 30% | |||
| Times Broken | 1 | 3 | 0 | 4 | |||
Head 2 Head
LLWLWWWLWL
LWWWWLWWWW Tennis Scores in Nottingham 2 Challenger
- Martin LandaluceLandaluce – Terence AtmaneAtmane (6-73 6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Colton SmithSmith – Emilio NavaNava (6-75 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Shintaro MochizukiMochizuki – Jaime FariaFaria (6-2 6-0) – See score progression
- Marin CilicCilic – Tomas Barrios VeraBarrios Vera (6-1 6-3) – See score progression
- Guido Andreozzi/Theo ArribageAndreozzi/Theo Arribage – Jakob Schnaitter/Mark WallnerSchnaitter/Mark Wallner (6-75 6-4 12-10) – See score progression
- Colton SmithSmith – Emilio NavaNava (6-7(5) 6-4 6-4) – See score progression
- Shintaro MochizukiMochizuki – Jaime FariaFaria (6-2 6-0) – See score progression
- Martin LandaluceLandaluce – Terence AtmaneAtmane (6-7(3) 6-2 6-3) – See score progression
- Marin CilicCilic – Tomas Barrios VeraBarrios Vera (6-1 6-3) – See score progression
