Andrea Pellegrino and Nerman Fatic will square off in the final of the Perugia Challenger for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 8:30 pm on CENTER COURT. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Andrea Pellegrino who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Andrea Pellegrino is the pick to win this match.
Andrea Pellegrino -> 1.61
Nerman Fatic -> 2.2
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Prediction and head to head Andrea Pellegrino vs. Nerman Fatic
This will be the 2nd time that Andrea Pellegrino and Nerman Fatic face off. The head to head is 1-0 for Pellegrino (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.
The last time that they played each other, Pellegrino won 3-6 6-3 ret. in the semifinal in the San Marino Challenger back in 2023.
Andrea Pellegrino
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 25-12 | 0-0 | 25-10 | 0-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 25-30 | 0-2 | 24-26 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 30-29 | 2-2 | 28-26 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-28 | 0-3 | 27-20 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 24-29 | 2-3 | 22-23 | 0-2 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 173, the Italian got to the final after defeating Gabriele Piraino 4-6 6-4 6-4, Federico Bondioli 6-1 6-4, Francesco Passaro 6-4 7-6(4) and Luca Nardi 7-6(5) 6-2.
In the semifinal, The Italian had a good straight sets win against Nardi (7-65 6-2). During the match, Pellegrino scored 73 points vs Nardi’s 71. The Italian was exceptionally aggressive to blast 42 winners.
Talking about the service games, Pellegrino scored 2 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Andrea Pellegrino was exceptionally effective on serve to win 71% (42/59) of his 1st serve and 52% (12/23) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Pellegrino was clinical in his return game without wasting any break point and break Nardi twice.
Overall Performance in this tournament
Andrea has surrendered 1 set in this tournament to conquer 53% of the points he played.
Pellegrino has favorable match record in the last 10 years having won 54% of his matches (286-248). 24-10 on clay in 2025. Regarding his performance on the same surface of this competition, Pellegrino has a compiled 247-187 record in the last years on clay.
Andrea’s best result of the current year was getting to the final in the Estoril Challenger.
Andrea has a composed 24-11 win-loss record in 2025, 24-10 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Perugia Challenger
Nerman Fatic
| Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 33-8 | 0-0 | 33-8 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 23-26 | 3-5 | 19-20 | 1-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 37-28 | 0-1 | 35-25 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 2022 | 34-27 | 0-1 | 31-19 | 2-6 | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| 2021 | 37-26 | 1-1 | 30-22 | 6-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 305, the Bosnian got to the final after beating Francesco Forti 6-4 6-4, Andrea Picchione 6-2 6-2, Oriol Roca Batalla 2-6 7-6(5) 7-6(1), Dusan Lajovic 6-2 6-4, Dalibor Svrcina 6-4 7-6(6) and Pierluigi Basile 6-3 7-6(6).
In the semifinal, Nerman had a good straight sets win against Basile (6-3 7-66). During the match Fatic scored 75 points vs Basile’s 61. Nerman was pretty aggressive to blast 36 winners.
Talking about serving, Fatic scored 7 aces and he committed only 2 double faults. Nerman Fatic was very efficient on serve to win 78% (36/46) of his 1st serve and 69% (18/26) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. Nerman broke Basile once after converting 33% of his break points (1/3).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Fatic started his run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, he has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
Nerman’s best result of the year was reaching the final in M15 Antalya,M15 Porec,M15 Dubrovnik and the Skopje Challenger.
Fatic has an aggregate 33-7 win-loss record in 2025, 33-7 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Perugia Challenger
Previously, his best result was reaching the quarter in 2021 and 2023. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Pellegrino | Fatic |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 4 | 6 |
| Tot Set | 9 | 13 |
| Tot Games | 91 | 133 |
| Pts | 319-280 | 458-398 |
| Total Points | 599 | 856 |
| Winners | 156 | 209 |
| %Winners | 49% | 46% |
Pellegrino played 4 matches while Fatic competed in 6 matches. Fatic started his run from the qualifications while Pellegrino had a direct access to the main draw. Both players lost a set in the event. Andrea Pellegrino dropped 1 set, while Nerman Fatic dropped 1 set. Pellegrino has played 4 set(s) less than Fatic (9 vs 13). Therefore, Pellegrino played 42 games less than Fatic. Pellegrino scored 156 winners (49% of the total points). On the other side, Nerman made 209 winners (46%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Pellegrino | Fatic |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 9 | 18 |
| Avg per match | 2.3 | 3 |
| 1st in | 230/318 | 296/445 |
| %1st in | 72% | 67% |
| 1st pts | 156/230 | 209/296 |
| %1st pts | 68% | 71% |
| 2nd pts | 51/88 | 84/149 |
| %2nd pts | 58% | 56% |
Pellegrino recorded 9 aces (2.3 per match). Fatic managed to score 18 aces (3 per match). Pellegrino won 68% points on his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 58% of the points. On the other side, Fatic won 71% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 56% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Pellegrino | Fatic |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 13 | 18 |
| Converted | 13/26 | 18/40 |
| % Converted | 50% | 45% |
| Conceded | 41 | 37 |
| Saved | 35 | 28 |
| % Saved | 85% | 76% |
| Times Broken | 6 | 9 |
Andrea broke his opponents 13 times with a 50% conversion rate. The Italian surrendered his serve 6 times and he saved 85% of the break points that he conceded. Nerman broke his opponents 18 times with a 45% conversion rate. Fatic conceded his serve 9 times and he saved 76% of the break points that he conceded.
| Pellegrino | ||||||
| R1 Piraino |
R2 Bondioli |
1/4 Passaro |
1/2 Nardi |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 4-6 6-4 6-4 | 6-1 6-4 | 6-4 7-64 | 7-65 6-2 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| Tot Games | 30 | 17 | 23 | 21 | 91 | |
| pts | 98-87 | 68-46 | 80-76 | 73-71 | 319-280 | |
| Total points | 185 | 114 | 156 | 144 | 599 | |
| Winners | 46 | 27 | 41 | 42 | 156 | |
| %Winners | 47% | 40% | 51% | 58% | 49% | |
| SERVE | ||||||
| Aces | 4 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | |
| Double Faults | 3 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 67/99 | 42/60 | 62/77 | 59/82 | 230/318 | |
| % 1st in | 68% | 70% | 81% | 72% | 72% | |
| 1st pts | 46/67 | 27/42 | 41/62 | 42/59 | 156/230 | |
| % 1st pts | 69% | 64% | 66% | 71% | 68% | |
| 2nd pts | 18/32 | 11/18 | 10/15 | 12/23 | 51/88 | |
| % 2nd pts | 56% | 61% | 67% | 52% | 58% | |
| Breaks | ||||||
| Won | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 13 | |
| Converted | 4/9 | 5/10 | 2/5 | 2/2 | 13/26 | |
| Converted % | 44% | 50% | 40% | 100% | 50% | |
| Conceded | 12 | 8 | 8 | 13 | 41 | |
| Saved | 9/12 | 6/8 | 7/8 | 13/13 | 35 | |
| Saved % | 75% | 75% | 88% | 100% | 85% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | |
| Fatic | ||||||||
| Q1 Forti |
Q3 Picchione |
R1 Roca Batalla |
R2 Lajovic |
1/4 Svrcina |
1/2 Basile |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-4 | 6-2 6-2 | 2-6 7-65 7-61 | 6-2 6-4 | 6-4 7-66 | 6-3 7-66 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 16 | 34 | 18 | 23 | 22 | 133 | |
| pts | 64-53 | 56-36 | 124-128 | 60-47 | 79-73 | 75-61 | 458-398 | |
| Total points | 117 | 92 | 252 | 107 | 152 | 136 | 856 | |
| Winners | 29 | 23 | 55 | 31 | 35 | 36 | 209 | |
| %Winners | 45% | 41% | 44% | 52% | 44% | 48% | 46% | |
| SERVE | ||||||||
| Aces | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 18 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 35/54 | 32/47 | 91/143 | 38/53 | 54/76 | 46/72 | 296/445 | |
| % 1st in | 65% | 68% | 64% | 72% | 71% | 64% | 67% | |
| 1st pts | 29/35 | 23/32 | 55/91 | 31/38 | 35/54 | 36/46 | 209/296 | |
| % 1st pts | 83% | 72% | 60% | 82% | 65% | 78% | 71% | |
| 2nd pts | 10/19 | 9/15 | 30/52 | 8/15 | 9/22 | 18/26 | 84/149 | |
| % 2nd pts | 53% | 60% | 58% | 53% | 41% | 69% | 56% | |
| Breaks | ||||||||
| Won | 3 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 18 | |
| Converted | 3/9 | 5/7 | 2/10 | 3/4 | 4/7 | 1/3 | 18/40 | |
| Converted % | 33% | 71% | 20% | 75% | 57% | 33% | 45% | |
| Conceded | 1 | 4 | 18 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 37 | |
| Saved | 0/1 | 3/4 | 14/18 | 2/2 | 2/5 | 7/7 | 28 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 75% | 78% | 100% | 40% | 100% | 98% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 9 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWWWWLLWW
LWWWWWWLWW Tennis Scores in Perugia Challenger
- Romain Arneodo/Manuel GuinardArneodo/Manuel Guinard – Robin Haase/Vasil KirkovHaase/Vasil Kirkov (3-6 6-3 10-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Andrea PellegrinoPellegrino – Nerman FaticFatic (1-0) – H2H and prediction
