Marco Trungelliti and Daniel Merida Aguilar will clash against each other in the final of the Lyon Challenger for the 3^rd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Sunday at 3:00 pm on COURT SOPRA STERIA. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Marco Trungelliti who should win in 3 sets.

As per the initial odds, Marco Trungelliti is the pick to win this match.
Marco Trungelliti -> 1.78
Daniel Merida Aguilar -> 1.95

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Prediction and head to head Marco Trungelliti vs. Daniel Merida Aguilar

This will be the 3^rd time that Marco Trungelliti and Daniel Merida Aguilar play each other. The head to head is 2-0 for Trungelliti (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on clay.

The last time that they competed against each other, Trungelliti won 6-3 6-3 in the 1^st round in the Madrid Challenger back in April 2025.

Marco Trungelliti

Ranked no. 188, the Argentine got to the final after beating Alejandro Moro Canas 6-2 6-3, Ivan Gakhov 2-6 6-4 6-3, Dimitar Kuzmanov 3-6 6-3 6-4 and Clement Tabur 6-1 7-5.

In the semifinal, The Argentine had a good straight sets win against Tabur (6-1 7-5). During the match, Trungelliti scored 79 points vs Tabur’s 63. Trungelliti was pretty aggressive to blast 35 winners.

Regarding the service games, Trungelliti bagged 9 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Marco Trungelliti lost the serve once and he saved 2 break points. Furthermore, Trungelliti put 64% of his first serves in, winning 76% (35/46) of the points behind his 1st serve and 42% (11/26) on the 2nd serve. Trungelliti broke Tabur 4 times after converting 36% of his break points (4/11).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Argentine has dropped 2 set in this competition to win 55% of the points he played.

Trungelliti has good record in the last 10 years having won 58% of his matches (302-217). 17-12 on clay in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this tournament, Trungelliti has a compiled 217-130 record in the last years on clay.

Trungelliti’s best result of the current season was getting to the semifinal in the Zagreb Challenger,the Heilbronn Challenger and the Lyon Challenger.

The Argentine has an aggregate 19-15 win-loss record in 2025, 17-12 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Lyon Challenger

Daniel Merida Aguilar

Ranked no. 292, Daniel got to the final after defeating Kyrian Jacquet 6-4 6-4, Henri Squire 3-6 6-1 6-4, Luca Van Assche 6-4 6-3 and Gauthier Onclin 6-3 6-1.

In the semifinal, Daniel had a good straight sets win against Onclin (6-3 6-1). During the match Merida scored 60 points vs Onclin’s 36. The Spaniard was quite aggressive to blast 25 winners.

Talking about serving, Merida scored 2 aces and he committed only 5 double faults. Daniel Merida Aguilar was very effective on serve to win 76% (25/33) of his 1st serve and 60% (9/15) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Spaniard broke Onclin 4 times after converting 80% of his break points (4/5).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The Spaniard has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 55% of the points he played.

Merida’s best result of the current year was reaching the final in M25 Doha and M25 Sabadell.

The Spaniard has an aggregate 27-10 win-loss record in 2025, 22-6 on clay (See FULL STATS).

Previously in the Lyon Challenger

Previously, his best result was reaching the qualifications in 2024. See his history.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Trungelliti	Merida
Match played	4	4
Tot Set	10	9
Tot Games	91	81
Pts	334-274	295-240
Total Points	608	535
Winners	128	138
%Winners	38%	47%

Both Trungelliti and Merida played 4 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Marco Trungelliti surrendered 2 sets, while Daniel Merida Aguilar dropped 1 set. Trungelliti has played 1 set more than Merida (10 vs 9). Therefore, Trungelliti played 10 games more than Merida. Trungelliti scored 128 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Merida scored 138 winners (47%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Trungelliti	Merida
Aces	21	9
Avg per match	5.3	2.3
1st in	171/287	195/270
%1st in	60%	72%
1st pts	128/171	138/195
%1st pts	75%	71%
2nd pts	62/116	38/75
%2nd pts	53%	51%

Trungelliti scored 21 aces (5.3 per match). Merida made 9 aces (2.3 per match). Trungelliti won 75% points on his first serve. He extremely effective on his second serve to win 53% of the points. On the other side, Merida won 71% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 51% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Trungelliti	Merida
Won	15	15
Converted	15/45	15/34
% Converted	33%	44%
Conceded	19	20
Saved	11	15
% Saved	58%	75%
Times Broken	8	5

The Argentine broke his opponents 15 times with a 33% conversion rate. Trungelliti lost his serve 8 times and he saved 58% of the break points that he conceded. The Spaniard broke his opponents 15 times with a 44% conversion rate. The Spaniard conceded his serve 5 times and he saved 75% of the break points that he conceded.

Trungelliti
	R1 Moro	R2 Gakhov	1/4 Kuzmanov	1/2 Tabur	Total
Score	6-2 6-3	2-6 6-4 6-3	3-6 6-3 6-4	6-1 7-5
Tot Set	2	3	3	2	10
Tot Games	17	27	28	19	91
pts	59-40	97-84	99-87	79-63	334-274
Total points	99	181	186	142	608
Winners	26	30	37	35	128
%Winners	44%	31%	37%	44%	38%
SERVE
Aces	5	2	5	9	21
Double Faults	2	2	6	5	15
1st in	33/51	49/84	43/80	46/72	171/287
% 1st in	65%	58%	54%	64%	60%
1st pts	26/33	30/49	37/43	35/46	128/171
% 1st pts	79%	61%	86%	76%	75%
2nd pts	10/18	20/35	21/37	11/26	62/116
% 2nd pts	56%	57%	57%	42%	53%
Breaks
Won	4	5	2	4	15
Converted	4/8	5/17	2/9	4/11	15/45
Converted %	50%	29%	22%	36%	33%
Conceded	5	6	5	3	19
Saved	4/5	1/6	4/5	2/3	11
Saved %	80%	17%	80%	67%	61%
Times Broken	1	5	1	1	8

Merida
	R1 Jacquet	R2 Squire	1/4 Van Assche	1/2 Onclin	Total
Score	6-4 6-4	3-6 6-1 6-4	6-4 6-3	6-3 6-1
Tot Set	2	3	2	2	9
Tot Games	20	26	19	16	81
pts	78-68	90-82	67-54	60-36	295-240
Total points	146	172	121	96	535
Winners	39	44	30	25	138
%Winners	50%	49%	45%	42%	47%
SERVE
Aces	1	6	0	2	9
Double Faults	4	3	4	5	16
1st in	49/77	70/86	43/59	33/48	195/270
% 1st in	64%	81%	73%	69%	72%
1st pts	39/49	44/70	30/43	25/33	138/195
% 1st pts	80%	63%	70%	76%	71%
2nd pts	12/28	11/16	6/16	9/15	38/75
% 2nd pts	43%	69%	38%	60%	51%
Breaks
Won	2	4	5	4	15
Converted	2/9	4/11	5/9	4/5	15/34
Converted %	22%	36%	56%	80%	44%
Conceded	5	7	6	2	20
Saved	5/5	5/7	3/6	2/2	15
Saved %	100%	71%	50%	100%	80%
Times Broken	0	2	3	0	5

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