Madison Keys and Tatjana Maria will fight against each other in the semifinal of the LTA London Championships for the 4th time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Saturday at 1:30 pm on ANDY MURRAY ARENA. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Madison Keys who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Madison Keys is the pick to win this match.
Madison Keys -> 1.26
Tatjana Maria -> 3.85
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Prediction and head to head Madison Keys vs. Tatjana Maria
This will be the 4th time that Madison Keys and Tatjana Maria face off. The head to head is 3-0 for Keys (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on grass.
The last time that they played, Keys won 7-6(5) 4-6 6-4 in the 2nd round in Charleston back in 2019.
Madison Keys
30 - 7win/loss
6
5
LLWWLWWWWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 30-9 | 19-3 | 9-4 | 0-0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 24-12 | 7-6 | 13-4 | 0-0 | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 33-15 | 19-9 | 5-3 | 0-2 | 9-1 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 30-20 | 25-12 | 4-4 | 0-3 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 11-15 | 3-9 | 3-4 | 0-0 | 5-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 8, Keys reached the semifinal after beating Anastasia Zakharova 6-3 6-2 and Diana Shnaider 2-6 6-3 6-4.
In the quarter against Shnaider, Keys recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (2-6 6-3 6-4). During the match, Keys scored 94 points vs Shnaider’s 93. Keys was exceptionally aggressive to blast 44 winners.
Regarding the service games, Keys bagged 4 aces and she committed only 6 double faults. Madison Keys lost the serve twice and she saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Keys put 63% of her first serves in, winning 68% (44/65) of the points behind her 1st serve and 51% (20/39) on the 2nd serve. Keys broke Shnaider twice after converting 40% of her break points (2/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Madison has surrendered 1 set in this competition to win 54% of the points she played.
Keys has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 66% of her matches (257-130). 2-0 on grass in 2025. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this event, Keys has a compiled 33-10 record in the last years on grass.
Her best result of the current season was conquering the title in Adelaide where she defeated Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 4-6 6-1 and at the Australian Open where she defeated Aryna Sabalenka in the final 6-3 2-6 7-5.
Madison has an overall 30-7 win-loss record in 2025, 2-0 on grass (See FULL STATS).
Previously in London
Madison has never competed in this tournament before.
Tatjana Maria
18 - 17win/loss
45
42
LWWWWWWWLL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 20-18 | 10-7 | 2-8 | 1-1 | 7-2 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 35-36 | 16-19 | 5-10 | 9-3 | 5-4 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 43-31 | 24-17 | 12-8 | 0-1 | 7-5 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 47-29 | 17-12 | 14-6 | 6-6 | 10-5 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 7-15 | 3-8 | 3-5 | 1-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 86, Tatjana got to the semifinal after defeating Hao-Ching Chan 6-0 6-2, Arina Rodionova 6-2 6-2, Leylah Annie Fernandez 7-6(4) 6-2, Karolina Muchova 6-7(3) 7-5 6-1 and Elena Rybakina 6-4 7-6(4).
In the quarter, Tatjana had a good straight sets win against Rybakina (6-4 7-64). During the match Maria and Rybakina scored the same amount of points (78). However, the world no. 8 was stronger during the important points and that was the most significant difference in the match. Maria was pretty aggressive to blast 41 winners.
About the serving games, Maria scored 9 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Tatjana Maria lost the serve twice and she saved 10 break points. Furthermore, Maria put 64% of her first serves in, winning 73% (41/56) of the points behind her 1st serve and 39% (12/31) on the 2nd serve. Tatjana broke Rybakina 3 times after converting 60% of her break points (3/5).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Maria started her run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, she has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 56% of the points she played.
Her best result of the season was conquering the title the W100 Bengaluru where she defeated Leolia Jeanjean in the final 6-7(0) 6-3 6-4.
Maria has an aggregate 18-17 win-loss record in 2025, 5-1 on grass (See FULL STATS).
Previously in London
The German has never competed in this tournament before.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Keys | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 5 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 11 |
| Tot Games | 44 | 106 |
| Pts | 160-134 | 386-309 |
| Total Points | 294 | 695 |
| Winners | 69 | 149 |
| %Winners | 43% | 39% |
Keys played 2 matches while Maria competed in 5 matches. Maria started her run from the qualifications while Keys had a direct access to the main draw. Both players lost a set in the event. Madison Keys conceded 1 set, while Tatjana Maria surrendered 1 set. Keys has played 6 set(s) less than Maria (5 vs 11). Therefore, Keys played 62 games less than Maria. The American scored 69 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, Maria bagged 149 winners (39%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Keys | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 6 | 28 |
| Avg per match | 3 | 5.6 |
| 1st in | 98/145 | 203/338 |
| %1st in | 68% | 60% |
| 1st pts | 69/98 | 149/203 |
| %1st pts | 70% | 73% |
| 2nd pts | 25/47 | 69/135 |
| %2nd pts | 53% | 51% |
Keys struck 6 aces (3 per match). Maria blasted 28 aces (5.6 per match). Keys won 70% points behind her first serve. She very solid her second serve to win 53% of the points. On the other side, Maria won 73% of the points on her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 51% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Keys | Maria |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 7 | 24 |
| Converted | 7/18 | 24/45 |
| % Converted | 39% | 53% |
| Conceded | 9 | 28 |
| Saved | 5 | 20 |
| % Saved | 56% | 71% |
| Times Broken | 4 | 8 |
The American broke her opponents 7 times with a 39% conversion rate. Madison dropped her serve 4 times and she saved 56% of the break points that she conceded. Maria broke her opponents 24 times with a 53% conversion rate. Maria conceded her serve 8 times and she saved 71% of the break points that she conceded.
| Keys | ||||
| R2 Zakharova |
1/4 Shnaider |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-3 6-2 | 2-6 6-3 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 17 | 27 | 44 | |
| pts | 66-41 | 94-93 | 160-134 | |
| Total points | 107 | 187 | 294 | |
| Winners | 25 | 44 | 69 | |
| %Winners | 38% | 47% | 43% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 2 | 4 | 6 | |
| Double Faults | 0 | 6 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 33/41 | 65/104 | 98/145 | |
| % 1st in | 80% | 63% | 68% | |
| 1st pts | 25/33 | 44/65 | 69/98 | |
| % 1st pts | 76% | 68% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 5/8 | 20/39 | 25/47 | |
| % 2nd pts | 63% | 51% | 53% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 5 | 2 | 7 | |
| Converted | 5/13 | 2/5 | 7/18 | |
| Converted % | 38% | 40% | 39% | |
| Conceded | 2 | 7 | 9 | |
| Saved | 0/2 | 5/7 | 5 | |
| Saved % | 0% | 71% | 36% | |
| Times Broken | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Maria | |||||||
| Q1 Chan |
Q3 Rodionova |
R1 Annie |
R2 Muchova |
1/4 Rybakina |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-0 6-2 | 6-2 6-2 | 7-64 6-2 | 6-73 7-5 6-1 | 6-4 7-64 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 | |
| Tot Games | 14 | 16 | 21 | 32 | 23 | 106 | |
| pts | 56-21 | 61-44 | 82-70 | 109-96 | 78-78 | 386-309 | |
| Total points | 77 | 105 | 152 | 205 | 156 | 695 | |
| Winners | 15 | 18 | 38 | 37 | 41 | 149 | |
| %Winners | 27% | 30% | 46% | 34% | 53% | 39% | |
| SERVE | |||||||
| Aces | 4 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 28 | |
| Double Faults | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 18/35 | 28/45 | 47/73 | 54/98 | 56/87 | 203/338 | |
| % 1st in | 51% | 62% | 64% | 55% | 64% | 60% | |
| 1st pts | 15/18 | 18/28 | 38/47 | 37/54 | 41/56 | 149/203 | |
| % 1st pts | 83% | 64% | 81% | 69% | 73% | 73% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/17 | 10/17 | 10/26 | 24/44 | 12/31 | 69/135 | |
| % 2nd pts | 76% | 59% | 38% | 55% | 39% | 51% | |
| Breaks | |||||||
| Won | 5 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 24 | |
| Converted | 5/6 | 6/12 | 3/7 | 7/15 | 3/5 | 24/45 | |
| Converted % | 83% | 50% | 43% | 47% | 60% | 53% | |
| Conceded | 0 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 28 | |
| Saved | 0/0 | 3/5 | 3/4 | 4/7 | 10/12 | 20 | |
| Saved % | – | 60% | 75% | 57% | 83% | 138% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | |
Head 2 Head
LLLLLLWWWW
LWWWWWWWLL Tennis Scores in London
- Asia Muhammad/Demi SchuursMuhammad/Demi Schuurs – Lyudmyla Kichenok/Erin RoutliffeKichenok/Erin Routliffe (6-1 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Anna Danilina/Diana ShnaiderDanilina/Diana Shnaider – Ellen Perez/Shuai ZhangPerez/Shuai Zhang (6-3 2-6 11-9) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Andrea GuerrieriGuerrieri – Riccardo MaigaMaiga (6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Pietro RondoniRondoni – Lorenzo FrigerioFrigerio (6-2 4-6 10-5) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Qinwen ZhengZheng – Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova (2-0) – H2H and prediction
- Tatjana MariaMaria – Madison KeysKeys (0-3) – H2H and prediction
