Madison Keys and Tatjana Maria will face off in the semifinal of the LTA London Championships for the 4^th time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Saturday at 1:30 pm on ANDY MURRAY ARENA. Here the head to head stats and relative prediction.

Prediction, odds and live streaming

The pick for Tennis Tonic is Madison Keys who should win in 2 sets.

As per the initial odds, Madison Keys is the pick to win this match.
Madison Keys -> 1.26
Tatjana Maria -> 3.85

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Prediction and head to head Madison Keys vs. Tatjana Maria

This will be the 4^th time that Madison Keys and Tatjana Maria play each other. The head to head is 3-0 for Keys (see full H2H stats), 1-0 on grass.

The last time that they squared off, Keys won 7-6(5) 4-6 6-4 in the 2^nd round in Charleston back in 2019.

Madison Keys

Ranked no. 8, Keys got to the semifinal after beating Anastasia Zakharova 6-3 6-2 and Diana Shnaider 2-6 6-3 6-4.

In the quarter against Shnaider, Keys recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (2-6 6-3 6-4). During the match, Keys scored 94 points vs Shnaider’s 93. The American was pretty aggressive to blast 44 winners.

Talking about the service games, Keys scored 4 aces and she committed only 6 double faults. Madison Keys lost the serve twice and she saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Keys put 63% of her first serves in, winning 68% (44/65) of the points behind her 1st serve and 51% (20/39) on the 2nd serve. The American broke Shnaider twice after converting 40% of her break points (2/5).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The American has lost 1 set in this tournament to conquer 54% of the points she played.

Keys has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 66% of her matches (257-130). 2-0 on grass in 2025. In connection with her performance on the same surface of this event, Keys has an overall 33-10 win-loss record in the last years on grass.

Her best result of the current season was winning the title in Adelaide where she overcame Jessica Pegula in the final 6-3 4-6 6-1 and at the Australian Open where she defeated Aryna Sabalenka in the final 6-3 2-6 7-5.

Madison has a compiled 30-7 win-loss record in 2025, 2-0 on grass (See FULL STATS).

Previously in London

Keys has never competed in this tournament before.

Tatjana Maria

Ranked no. 86, Tatjana reached the semifinal after beating Hao-Ching Chan 6-0 6-2, Arina Rodionova 6-2 6-2, Leylah Annie Fernandez 7-6(4) 6-2, Karolina Muchova 6-7(3) 7-5 6-1 and Elena Rybakina 6-4 7-6(4).

In the quarter, Tatjana had a good straight sets win against Rybakina (6-4 7-6⁴). During the match Maria and Rybakina scored the same amount of points (78). However, the world no. 8 was stronger during the important points and that was the most significant difference in the match. Tatjana was exceptionally aggressive to blast 41 winners.

Talking about serving, Maria fired 9 aces and she committed only 2 double faults. Tatjana Maria lost the serve twice and she saved 10 break points. Furthermore, Maria put 64% of her first serves in, winning 73% (41/56) of the points behind her 1st serve and 39% (12/31) on the 2nd serve. Maria broke Rybakina 3 times after converting 60% of her break points (3/5).

Overall Performance in this tournament

The German started her run at this tournament from the qualifications. In the main draw, she has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 56% of the points she played.

Her best result of the current season was conquering the title the W100 Bengaluru where she beat Leolia Jeanjean in the final 6-7(0) 6-3 6-4.

Tatjana has a compiled 18-17 win-loss record in 2025, 5-1 on grass (See FULL STATS).

Previously in London

Maria has never competed in this tournament before.

H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)

Matches, sets, games and points

Points	Keys	Maria
Match played	2	5
Tot Set	5	11
Tot Games	44	106
Pts	160-134	386-309
Total Points	294	695
Winners	69	149
%Winners	43%	39%

Keys played 2 matches while Maria competed in 5 matches. Maria started her run from the qualifications while Keys had a direct access to the main draw. Both players lost a set in the event. Madison Keys dropped 1 set, while Tatjana Maria dropped 1 set. Keys has played 6 set(s) less than Maria (5 vs 11). Therefore, Keys played 62 games less than Maria. Madison scored 69 winners (43% of the total points). On the other side, Maria made 149 winners (39%).

Serve Performance

Serve	Keys	Maria
Aces	6	28
Avg per match	3	5.6
1st in	98/145	203/338
%1st in	68%	60%
1st pts	69/98	149/203
%1st pts	70%	73%
2nd pts	25/47	69/135
%2nd pts	53%	51%

Keys blasted 6 aces (3 per match). Maria bagged 28 aces (5.6 per match). Keys won 70% points on her first serve. She very solid her second serve to win 53% of the points. On the other side, Maria won 73% of the points behind her first serve. She had a solid display on her second serve to win 51% of the points.

How they played the important points

Breaks	Keys	Maria
Won	7	24
Converted	7/18	24/45
% Converted	39%	53%
Conceded	9	28
Saved	5	20
% Saved	56%	71%
Times Broken	4	8

The American broke her opponents 7 times with a 39% conversion rate. The American dropped her serve 4 times and she saved 56% of the break points that she conceded. Tatjana broke her opponents 24 times with a 53% conversion rate. Maria conceded her serve 8 times and she saved 71% of the break points that she conceded.

Keys
	R2 Zakharova	1/4 Shnaider	Total
Score	6-3 6-2	2-6 6-3 6-4
Tot Set	2	3	5
Tot Games	17	27	44
pts	66-41	94-93	160-134
Total points	107	187	294
Winners	25	44	69
%Winners	38%	47%	43%
SERVE
Aces	2	4	6
Double Faults	0	6	6
1st in	33/41	65/104	98/145
% 1st in	80%	63%	68%
1st pts	25/33	44/65	69/98
% 1st pts	76%	68%	70%
2nd pts	5/8	20/39	25/47
% 2nd pts	63%	51%	53%
Breaks
Won	5	2	7
Converted	5/13	2/5	7/18
Converted %	38%	40%	39%
Conceded	2	7	9
Saved	0/2	5/7	5
Saved %	0%	71%	36%
Times Broken	2	2	4

Maria
	Q1 Chan	Q3 Rodionova	R1 Annie	R2 Muchova	1/4 Rybakina	Total
Score	6-0 6-2	6-2 6-2	7-64 6-2	6-73 7-5 6-1	6-4 7-64
Tot Set	2	2	2	3	2	11
Tot Games	14	16	21	32	23	106
pts	56-21	61-44	82-70	109-96	78-78	386-309
Total points	77	105	152	205	156	695
Winners	15	18	38	37	41	149
%Winners	27%	30%	46%	34%	53%	39%
SERVE
Aces	4	3	7	5	9	28
Double Faults	1	1	3	0	2	7
1st in	18/35	28/45	47/73	54/98	56/87	203/338
% 1st in	51%	62%	64%	55%	64%	60%
1st pts	15/18	18/28	38/47	37/54	41/56	149/203
% 1st pts	83%	64%	81%	69%	73%	73%
2nd pts	13/17	10/17	10/26	24/44	12/31	69/135
% 2nd pts	76%	59%	38%	55%	39%	51%
Breaks
Won	5	6	3	7	3	24
Converted	5/6	6/12	3/7	7/15	3/5	24/45
Converted %	83%	50%	43%	47%	60%	53%
Conceded	0	5	4	7	12	28
Saved	0/0	3/5	3/4	4/7	10/12	20
Saved %	–	60%	75%	57%	83%	138%
Times Broken	0	2	1	3	2	8

Tennis Scores in London

• Anna Danilina/Diana ShnaiderDanilina/Diana Shnaider – Ellen Perez/Shuai ZhangPerez/Shuai Zhang (6-3 2-6 11-9) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Asia Muhammad/Demi SchuursMuhammad/Demi Schuurs – Lyudmyla Kichenok/Erin RoutliffeKichenok/Erin Routliffe (6-1 6-2) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Andrea GuerrieriGuerrieri – Riccardo MaigaMaiga (6-4 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
• Pietro RondoniRondoni – Lorenzo FrigerioFrigerio (6-2 4-6 10-5) – Stats, scores, rankings

Upcoming matches in the draw

• Qinwen ZhengZheng – Amanda AnisimovaAnisimova (2-0) – H2H and prediction
• Tatjana MariaMaria – Madison KeysKeys (0-3) – H2H and prediction