Pablo Carreno-Busta and Gauthier Onclin will clash against each other in the quarter of the Lyon Challenger for the 1st time in their career. They are scheduled to play on Friday at 3:00 pm on COURT SOPRA STERIA. In the following lines you can find the head to head analysis and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Pablo Carreno-Busta who should win in 3 sets.
As per the initial odds, Pablo Carreno-Busta is the pick to win this match.
Pablo Carreno-Busta -> 1.42
Gauthier Onclin -> 2.7
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Prediction and head to head Pablo Carreno-Busta vs. Gauthier Onclin
There is no head to head record between Pablo Carreno-Busta and Gauthier Onclin since this will be the first time that they will square off in the main tour.
Pablo Carreno-Busta
23 - 16win/loss
89
10
LWLLWWWWLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 41-28 | 25-10 | 14-14 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 10-12 | 7-6 | 2-4 | 1-1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 2-5 | 2-4 | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 37-25 | 19-8 | 11-9 | 5-5 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 38-18 | 14-8 | 17-4 | 5-4 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 93, Pablo reached the quarter after defeating Titouan Droguet 7-6(3) 6-3 and Javier Barranco Cosano 6-1 6-3.
In the 2nd round, The Spaniard had a good straight sets win against Barranco Cosano (6-1 6-3). During the match, Carreno-Busta scored 66 points vs Barranco Cosano’s 44. The Spaniard was exceptionally aggressive to blast 24 winners.
Regarding the service games, Carreno-Busta managed to score 5 aces and he was quite steady in conceding no double faults. Pablo Carreno-Busta was extremely efficient on serve to win 77% (24/31) of his 1st serve and 69% (11/16) on the second serve. This was the main reason for not conceding a single break during the match. The Spaniard broke Barranco Cosano 4 times after converting 36% of his break points (4/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
Carreno-Busta hasn’t lost yet a set in this event to win 57% of the points he played.
Carreno-Busta has a solid win-loss record in the last 10 years having won 60% of his matches (274-184). 9-10 on clay in 2025. In connection with his performance on the same surface of this competition, Carreno-Busta has a composed 104-69 record in the last years on clay.
His best result of the current year was winning the title the Tenerife 1 Challenger where he beat Alejandro Moro Canas in the final 6-3 6-2 and the Tenerife 2 Challenger where he beat Filip Misolic in the final 6-3 6-2.
Carreno-Busta has a composed 23-16 win-loss record in 2025, 9-10 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Lyon Challenger
The Spaniard has never competed in this tournament before.
Gauthier Onclin
18 - 13win/loss
247
192
LLLLLLWLWL | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 28-29 | 8-9 | 18-11 | 1-8 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 56-27 | 27-11 | 19-13 | 10-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 40-25 | 1-2 | 15-10 | 23-11 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 54-26 | 10-8 | 36-15 | 8-3 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 32-23 | 18-6 | 10-13 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 4-2 |
Ranked no. 221, Gauthier reached the quarter after beating Juan Pablo Ficovich 7-5 6-3 and Lucas Poullain 7-5 7-6(4).
In the 2nd round, Onclin had a good straight sets win against Poullain (7-5 7-64). During the match Onclin scored 94 points vs Poullain’s 84. The Belgian was very aggressive to blast 36 winners.
About the serving games, Onclin scored just 1 ace during the entire match and he committed only 5 double faults. Gauthier Onclin lost the serve 5 times and he saved 9 break points. Furthermore, Onclin put 64% of his first serves in, winning 59% (36/61) of the points behind his 1st serve and 49% (17/35) on the 2nd serve. Gauthier broke Poullain 6 times after converting 50% of his break points (6/12).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Belgian hasn’t dropped yet a set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.
The Belgian’s best result of the current year was reaching the final in M25 Santa Margherita di Pula.
Gauthier has a composed 18-13 win-loss record in 2025, 14-8 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Lyon Challenger
Previously, his best result was reaching the 1st round in 2024. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Carreno-Busta | Onclin |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 4 | 4 |
| Tot Games | 38 | 46 |
| Pts | 150-115 | 181-159 |
| Total Points | 265 | 340 |
| Winners | 66 | 70 |
| %Winners | 44% | 39% |
Both Carreno-Busta and Onclin played 2 matches. Both players have not surrendered a single set in this event so far. Talking about their workload, Carreno-Busta and Onclin have played the same amount of sets 4. However, Carreno-Busta played 8 games less than Onclin. Pablo scored 66 winners (44% of the total points). On the other side, Gauthier scored 70 winners (39%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Carreno-Busta | Onclin |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 9 | 2 |
| Avg per match | 4.5 | 1 |
| 1st in | 90/130 | 119/179 |
| %1st in | 69% | 66% |
| 1st pts | 66/90 | 70/119 |
| %1st pts | 73% | 59% |
| 2nd pts | 24/40 | 30/60 |
| %2nd pts | 60% | 50% |
Carreno-Busta scored 9 aces (4.5 per match). Onclin scored 2 aces (1 per match). Carreno-Busta won 73% points behind his first serve. He pretty effective on his second serve to win 60% of the points. On the other side, Onclin won 59% of the points on his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 50% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Carreno-Busta | Onclin |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 6 | 11 |
| Converted | 6/15 | 11/25 |
| % Converted | 40% | 44% |
| Conceded | 7 | 25 |
| Saved | 6 | 17 |
| % Saved | 86% | 68% |
| Times Broken | 1 | 8 |
Pablo broke his opponents 6 times with a 40% conversion rate. Carreno-Busta lost his serve once and he saved 86% of the break points that he conceded. Gauthier broke his opponents 11 times with a 44% conversion rate. Onclin conceded his serve 8 times and he saved 68% of the break points that he conceded.
| Carreno-Busta | ||||
| R1 Droguet |
R2 Barranco |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-63 6-3 | 6-1 6-3 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 22 | 16 | 38 | |
| pts | 84-71 | 66-44 | 150-115 | |
| Total points | 155 | 110 | 265 | |
| Winners | 42 | 24 | 66 | |
| %Winners | 50% | 36% | 44% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 4 | 5 | 9 | |
| Double Faults | 5 | 0 | 5 | |
| 1st in | 59/83 | 31/47 | 90/130 | |
| % 1st in | 71% | 66% | 69% | |
| 1st pts | 42/59 | 24/31 | 66/90 | |
| % 1st pts | 71% | 77% | 73% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/24 | 11/16 | 24/40 | |
| % 2nd pts | 54% | 69% | 60% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 2 | 4 | 6 | |
| Converted | 2/4 | 4/11 | 6/15 | |
| Converted % | 50% | 36% | 40% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 2 | 7 | |
| Saved | 4/5 | 2/2 | 6 | |
| Saved % | 80% | 100% | 90% | |
| Times Broken | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Onclin | ||||
| R1 Pablo Ficovich |
R2 Poullain |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 7-5 6-3 | 7-5 7-64 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 2 | 4 | |
| Tot Games | 21 | 25 | 46 | |
| pts | 87-75 | 94-84 | 181-159 | |
| Total points | 162 | 178 | 340 | |
| Winners | 34 | 36 | 70 | |
| %Winners | 39% | 38% | 39% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 5 | 9 | |
| 1st in | 58/83 | 61/96 | 119/179 | |
| % 1st in | 70% | 64% | 66% | |
| 1st pts | 34/58 | 36/61 | 70/119 | |
| % 1st pts | 59% | 59% | 59% | |
| 2nd pts | 13/25 | 17/35 | 30/60 | |
| % 2nd pts | 52% | 49% | 50% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 5 | 6 | 11 | |
| Converted | 5/13 | 6/12 | 11/25 | |
| Converted % | 38% | 50% | 44% | |
| Conceded | 11 | 14 | 25 | |
| Saved | 8/11 | 9/14 | 17 | |
| Saved % | 73% | 64% | 69% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 5 | 8 | |
Head 2 Head
LWLLWWWWLW
LLLLLLWLWL Tennis Scores in Lyon Challenger
- Jakub Paul/Michael VrbenskyPaul/Michael Vrbensky – Courtney John Lock/Thijmen LoofJohn Lock/Thijmen Loof (7-5 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Luca Sanchez/Seita WatanabeSanchez/Seita Watanabe – Orlando Luz/Marcelo ZormannLuz/Marcelo Zormann (4-6 6-4 10-8) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Marco TrungellitiTrungelliti – Dimitar KuzmanovKuzmanov (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Gauthier OnclinOnclin (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Clement TaburTabur – Yu Hsiou HsuHsiou Hsu (0-0) – H2H and prediction
