Luca Van Assche and Daniel Merida Aguilar will fight against each other in the quarter of the Lyon Challenger for the 2nd time in their career. They are scheduled to compete on Friday at 5:30 pm on COURT SOPRA STERIA. In this post, we analyze their head to head performance and prediction.
Prediction, odds and live streaming
The pick for Tennis Tonic is Luca Van Assche who should win in 2 sets.
As per the initial odds, Luca Van Assche is the pick to win this match.
Luca Van Assche -> 1.37
Daniel Merida Aguilar -> 2.9
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Prediction and head to head Luca Van Assche vs. Daniel Merida Aguilar
This will be the 2nd time that Luca Van Assche and Daniel Merida Aguilar face off. The head to head is 1-0 for Van Assche (see full H2H stats), but they have never played each other on clay.
The last time that they played each other, Van Assche won 6-3 6-3 in the 1st round in the Villena Challenger back in 2024.
Luca Van Assche
18 - 12win/loss
186
63
LWWLWWLWLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 20-14 | 0-1 | 14-9 | 6-4 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 35-38 | 15-15 | 8-10 | 10-11 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 34-30 | 1-7 | 15-11 | 15-9 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 55-31 | 0-1 | 40-20 | 15-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 26-22 | 3-2 | 8-7 | 15-13 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 184, the French player got to the quarter after beating Michael Vrbensky 1-6 6-1 6-4 and Geoffrey Blancaneaux 6-4 7-5.
In the 2nd round, Luca had a good straight sets win against Blancaneaux (6-4 7-5). During the match, Van Assche scored 72 points vs Blancaneaux’s 59. The French player was exceptionally aggressive to blast 32 winners.
Regarding the service games, Van Assche was unable to score even 1 ace throughout the encounter and he committed only 4 double faults. Overall, Luca Van Assche was extremely effective on serve to win 73% (32/44) of his 1st serve and 52% (11/21) on the second serve. However, this didn’t prevent his to concede the serve twice. Luca broke Blancaneaux 4 times after converting 36% of his break points (4/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The French player has conceded 1 set in this tournament to win 54% of the points he played.
Van Assche has a winning record in the last 6 years having won 56% of his matches (175-137). 12-7 on clay in 2025. Talking about his performance on the same surface of this event, Van Assche has an overall89-57 record in the last 6 years on clay.
Van Assche’s best result of the current season was reaching the final in the Zagreb Challenger.
The French player has a compiled 18-12 win-loss record in 2025, 12-7 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Lyon Challenger
Daniel Merida Aguilar
25 - 10win/loss
250
250
WWWLWWWWLW | Year | Total | Hard | Clay | I.hard | Grass | Carpet |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 30-11 | 5-2 | 25-7 | 0-2 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2024 | 57-33 | 17-9 | 40-23 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2023 | 37-31 | 16-13 | 20-17 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2022 | 29-26 | 8-9 | 21-16 | 0-1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| 2021 | 12-14 | 1-4 | 11-10 | 0-0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Ranked no. 292, Daniel got to the quarter after beating Kyrian Jacquet 6-4 6-4 and Henri Squire 3-6 6-1 6-4.
In the 2nd round against Squire, The Spaniard recovered from a 1-set down deficit before winning (3-6 6-1 6-4). During the match Merida Aguilar scored 90 points vs Squire’s 82. The Spaniard was quite aggressive to blast 44 winners.
Talking about serving, Merida Aguilar fired 6 aces and he committed only 3 double faults. Daniel Merida Aguilar lost the serve twice and he saved 5 break points. Furthermore, Merida Aguilar put 81% of his first serves in, winning 63% (44/70) of the points behind his 1st serve and 69% (11/16) on the 2nd serve. The Spaniard broke Squire 4 times after converting 36% of his break points (4/11).
Overall Performance in this tournament
The Spaniard has conceded 1 set in the tournament to win 53% of the points he played.
The Spaniard’s best result of the current year was reaching the final in M25 Doha and M25 Sabadell.
Daniel has an aggregate 25-10 win-loss record in 2025, 20-6 on clay (See FULL STATS).
Previously in the Lyon Challenger
Previously, his best result was reaching the qualifications in 2024. See his history.
H2H Performance in the tournament (main draw)
Matches, sets, games and points
| Points | Van Assche | Merida Aguilar |
|---|---|---|
| Match played | 2 | 2 |
| Tot Set | 5 | 5 |
| Tot Games | 46 | 46 |
| Pts | 154-132 | 168-150 |
| Total Points | 286 | 318 |
| Winners | 58 | 83 |
| %Winners | 38% | 49% |
Both Van Assche and Merida Aguilar played 2 matches. Both players lost a set in the event. Luca Van Assche surrendered 1 set, while Daniel Merida Aguilar lost 1 set. Talking about their workload, Van Assche and Merida Aguilar have played the same amount of sets 5. They also played the same amount of games (46). Van Assche scored 58 winners (38% of the total points). On the other side, Daniel blasted 83 winners (49%).
Serve Performance
| Serve | Van Assche | Merida Aguilar |
|---|---|---|
| Aces | 4 | 7 |
| Avg per match | 2 | 3.5 |
| 1st in | 81/130 | 119/163 |
| %1st in | 62% | 73% |
| 1st pts | 58/81 | 83/119 |
| %1st pts | 72% | 70% |
| 2nd pts | 28/49 | 23/44 |
| %2nd pts | 57% | 52% |
Van Assche bagged 4 aces (2 per match). Merida Aguilar fired 7 aces (3.5 per match). Van Assche won 72% points behind his first serve. He pretty solid on his second serve to win 57% of the points. On the other side, Merida Aguilar won 70% of the points behind his first serve. He had a solid display on his second serve to win 52% of the points.
How they played the important points
| Breaks | Van Assche | Merida Aguilar |
|---|---|---|
| Won | 8 | 6 |
| Converted | 8/25 | 6/20 |
| % Converted | 32% | 30% |
| Conceded | 12 | 12 |
| Saved | 7 | 10 |
| % Saved | 58% | 83% |
| Times Broken | 5 | 2 |
The French player broke his opponents 8 times with a 32% conversion rate. Van Assche dropped his serve 5 times and he saved 58% of the break points that he conceded. The Spaniard broke his opponents 6 times with a 30% conversion rate. The Spaniard conceded his serve twice and he saved 83% of the break points that he conceded.
| Van Assche | ||||
| R1 Vrbensky |
R2 Blancaneaux |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 1-6 6-1 6-4 | 6-4 7-5 | ||
| Tot Set | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 24 | 22 | 46 | |
| pts | 82-73 | 72-59 | 154-132 | |
| Total points | 155 | 131 | 286 | |
| Winners | 26 | 32 | 58 | |
| %Winners | 32% | 44% | 38% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 4 | 0 | 4 | |
| Double Faults | 2 | 4 | 6 | |
| 1st in | 37/65 | 44/65 | 81/130 | |
| % 1st in | 57% | 68% | 62% | |
| 1st pts | 26/37 | 32/44 | 58/81 | |
| % 1st pts | 70% | 73% | 72% | |
| 2nd pts | 17/28 | 11/21 | 28/49 | |
| % 2nd pts | 61% | 52% | 57% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 4 | 4 | 8 | |
| Converted | 4/14 | 4/11 | 8/25 | |
| Converted % | 29% | 36% | 32% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 7 | 12 | |
| Saved | 2/5 | 5/7 | 7 | |
| Saved % | 40% | 71% | 56% | |
| Times Broken | 3 | 2 | 5 | |
| Merida Aguilar | ||||
| R1 Jacquet |
R2 Squire |
Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Score | 6-4 6-4 | 3-6 6-1 6-4 | ||
| Tot Set | 2 | 3 | 5 | |
| Tot Games | 20 | 26 | 46 | |
| pts | 78-68 | 90-82 | 168-150 | |
| Total points | 146 | 172 | 318 | |
| Winners | 39 | 44 | 83 | |
| %Winners | 50% | 49% | 49% | |
| SERVE | ||||
| Aces | 1 | 6 | 7 | |
| Double Faults | 4 | 3 | 7 | |
| 1st in | 49/77 | 70/86 | 119/163 | |
| % 1st in | 64% | 81% | 73% | |
| 1st pts | 39/49 | 44/70 | 83/119 | |
| % 1st pts | 80% | 63% | 70% | |
| 2nd pts | 12/28 | 11/16 | 23/44 | |
| % 2nd pts | 43% | 69% | 52% | |
| Breaks | ||||
| Won | 2 | 4 | 6 | |
| Converted | 2/9 | 4/11 | 6/20 | |
| Converted % | 22% | 36% | 30% | |
| Conceded | 5 | 7 | 12 | |
| Saved | 5/5 | 5/7 | 10 | |
| Saved % | 100% | 71% | 86% | |
| Times Broken | 0 | 2 | 2 | |
Head 2 Head
LWWLWWLWLW
WWWLWWWWLW Tennis Scores in Lyon Challenger
- Jakub Paul/Michael VrbenskyPaul/Michael Vrbensky – Courtney John Lock/Thijmen LoofJohn Lock/Thijmen Loof (7-5 6-4) – Stats, scores, rankings
- Luca Sanchez/Seita WatanabeSanchez/Seita Watanabe – Orlando Luz/Marcelo ZormannLuz/Marcelo Zormann (4-6 6-4 10-8) – Stats, scores, rankings
Upcoming matches in the draw
- Marco TrungellitiTrungelliti – Dimitar KuzmanovKuzmanov (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Pablo Carreno-BustaCarreno-Busta – Gauthier OnclinOnclin (0-0) – H2H and prediction
- Clement TaburTabur – Yu Hsiou HsuHsiou Hsu (0-0) – H2H and prediction
